Friday, February 15, 2013

Director's Cut: December, 2012, Data

Link here to the NDIC site.

Highlights:
  • new all-time highs in production
  • more than 400 wells awaiting completion
  • new metric: 90 new wells/month needed to maintain current production
Flaring
Additions to gathering and processing capacity are helping with the percentage of gas flared holding at 29%. The historical high was 36% in September 2011.
Oil
  • Dec: 768,853 bopd (5% increase over previous month; 3% over previous high)
  • Nov: 733,078 bopd (~ 2.0 % decrease; see comments from director below)
  • Oct: 747,212 bopd
  • Sept: 729,248 bopd
  • Aug: 701,409 bopd
Producing wells
  • Dec: 8,224  (preliminary) (new all -time high)
  • Nov: 8,101
  • Oct: 8,035
  • Sept: 7,899
Permitting
  • Jan: 218 (note the increase)
  • Dec: 154 ( significant decrease)
  • Nov: 211 (all-time high was 370 in Oct 2012)
  • Oct: 370 (all-time high)
  • Sept: 273
  • Aug: 261
Pricing
  • Jan: $88/bbl (note the nice increase)
  • Dec: $77/bbl
  • Nov: $81/bbl
  • Oct: $87/bbl
  • Sept: $85/bbl
  • Aug: $81/bbl
Rig count
  • Jan: 186
  • Dec: 184
  • Nov: 186
  • Oct: 188
  • Sept: 190
  • Aug: 198
Comments:
  • operators were continuing to transition to higher efficiency rigs
  • operators still cautious about fracking regulations (SOTU address did not give them any reassurance)
  • at end of the year (2012), 413 wells were waiting to be completed (estimate)
  • 90 new wells per month to maintain production (estimate)
  • takeaway is adequate
  • majority of ND oil now shipped by rail to east coast, gulf coast, and west coast
  • rig count stable
  • drilling permit activity was up significantly in January 
  • sufficient permit inventory to accommodate more multi-well pads, the desire to use already built locations during winter, and time required to publish hydraulic fracturing rules if required
  • construction of processing plants and gathering systems will be severely affected by weather until the spring thaw
  • flaring has held at 29%; historical high was 36% in September 2011
  • BLM received over 170,000 comments on hydraulic fracking and has withdrawn "the rule"; a new proposed rule is expected second quarter 2013
  • pressure on the federal budget has led to a significant amount of rhetoric from the administration regarding tax treatment of intangible drilling costs and the depletion allowance 
Maintain production:
  • new metric: 90 new wells/month required to maintain production
  • 185 active rigs x 0.75% --> 140 new wells/month excluding completion
  • one rig --> 8 wells/year --> 123 new wells/month/excluding completion
  • recent operator stated 38 days well-to-well with one rig -- 365/38 days --> 9.6 wells/year
  • in previous reports, NDIC/Director has stated that average time to total depth: < 20 days

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