Thursday, October 18, 2012

Another CBR Facility; NOG -- Operations Update 3Q12; Union Pacific Railroad Beats Estimates; XOM Wants Out of Iraq/Looks to Canada; XOM and BRK Both Hit New 52-Week Highs

From Yahoo!Financial In-Play:
Northern Oil & Gas sees Q3 production +96% YoY and +9% QoQ: Northern Oil expects third quarter 2012 production to increase ~96% YoY, and ~9% QoQ, resulting in an average of ~11,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day. During the first two months of the quarter, the weighted average days on production was ~55 out of a possible 62 producing days, or ~89% of potential producing days. Preliminary estimates of September's weighted average days on production appear to be consistent with the first two months of the third quarter. During the third quarter of 2012, Northern Oil had ~149 gross (10.9 net) wells completed and placed into production. As of September 30, 2012, Northern Oil was producing from a total of 1,104 gross (98.5 net) wells. As of September 30, 2012, Northern Oil was participating in an additional 153 gross (10.1 net) wells that were drilling, completing or awaiting completion. Northern Oil observed crude oil differentials tighten from ~$14 per barrel on average in July 2012 to ~$10 per barrel on average in August 2012, and expects differentials to average between $10 and $12 per barrel for the third quarter of 2012. Lease operating expense (LOE) per barrel is expected to be ~$8.50 for the third quarter of 2012, driven by higher levels of production enhancing work-over activities.

Union Pacific beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line: Reports Q3 earnings of $2.19 per share, $0.02 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $2.17; revenues rose 4.7% year/year to $5.34 bln vs the $5.37 bln consensus. Third quarter business volumes, as measured by total revenue carloads, were down slightly compared to 2011. Volume growth in chemicals, automotive and intermodal offset declines in shipments of coal, agricultural products and industrial products. The co repurchased 3.1 mln shares in Q3 at an average share price of $122.13 and an aggregate cost of $378 mln.

Canadian Natl Rail and Tundra Energy Marketing signed MOU to construct a crude oil rail car loading terminal: The terminal will initially load 30,000 barrels of crude oil per day into rail cars - the equivalent of more than 50 tank cars worth - starting in the second quarter of 2013. The facility will have the potential to accommodate a unit train of 100 tank cars, with each train carrying approximately 60,000 barrels per day of crude oil.  [This is in the Williston Basin Bakken, but on the Canadian side of the border.]
Elsewhere, more on the Canadian National Rail crude-by-rail terminal:
...they will construct a railcar-loading terminal for Bakken crude oil producers in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
The project will provide producers with “access to alternative North American markets for Williston Basin crude oil over CN’s network at a time when there is inadequate pipeline take-away capacity,” said Bryan Lankester, president of Tundra, a company that handles crude on behalf of producers.
Another link to this CN story here:
Canadian National Railway Co. (CN) and Tundra Energy Marketing Ltd. agreed to build a crude oil rail terminal near Cromer, Man., to transport Bakken crude oil for producers in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
UNP shares have a great day. One supposes BNI is doing as well. Unfortunately we really won't know: BNI is owned by Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett). Berkshire Hathaway hit a new 52-week high today (although it has pulled back a bit since).  XOM also hit a new 52-week high today.

Elsewhere:

XOM looking to pull out of Iraq. MSN Money thoughts on XOM's purchase of Celtic in Alberta gas-rich shale. I can't find the link now, but in today's print edition of the WSJ, the analyst suspects XOM is trying to average down the price it has paid for natural gas assets in the past. No one mentions the nitrogen fracking technology.

Back to the XOM/Iraq story:
Exxon Mobil wants to leave its flagship Iraqi oil project after upsetting Baghdad by signing a deal last year with the autonomous northern Kurdish region, which the central government deemed illegal.
It wants to leave its contract to develop the giant West Qurna-1 oilfield in southern Iraq , diplomatic sources said on Thursday, because of concerns over the profitability of the project.
Wow, how much did they pay for that "opportunity"? How much would it cost to develop that project? If XOM can't make money in Iraq with Brent oil $20 more/barrel than WTI, one really has to wonder. 

Profitability? or irritation over Iraq's attitude regarding Kurdistan? I think it's more of the latter. XOM not interested in getting involved in a civil war between Baghdad and Mosul.

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