20,000 wells in the Bakken?

[While reading the following post, keep a couple points in mind:

• North Dakota is on its way to granting 1200 permits for new wells this calendar year
• With 100 active rigs in state, and 10 wells/year/rig, it should be easy to drill 1,000 wells/year]

Here's the story:
I am often accused of being inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. I won't deny it.

But if this doesn't "move you," nothing will.

This was in yesterday's (April 26, 2010) issue of the Minot Daily News.com.  The main point of the article has been articulated before, most recently in a basic analysis of the Bakken, but the article in the Minot Daily News breaks down how the numbers were arrived at.

Lead paragraph:

"The head of the state department that oversees mineral resources in North Dakota says it will take 10,000 to 20,000 wells to fully develop the Bakken-Three Forks Formations."

Note: this estimate does not include the Spearfish (currently being developed by EOG) or the other formations in the Williston Basin: Red River, Madison, Lodgepole, and others.

But I digress.

Here is how Lynn Helms breaks down the 20,000 wells to develop the Bakken-TFS formations.  I rounded some of the numbers for easier reading.

Ray-Tioga area:

• 430 to 540 wells per year for 11 to 14 years (5000 wells)
• 4 million gallons of water/day May through December

Williston area:

• 70  to 90 wells per year for eight to 20 years (2000 wells)
• 1 million gallons of water/day May through December

Alexander area:

• 120 to 150 wells per year for 12 to 15 years (2000 wells)
• 2 million gallons of water/day May through December

Watford City - Keene area:

• 250 to 310 wells per year for five to seven years (1500 wells)
• 2 million gallons of water/day May through December

Killdeer area:

• 235 to 290 wells per year for six to eight years (2000 wells)
• 1 million gallons of water/day May through December

Parshall area:

• 375 to 450 wells per year for seven to eight years (3000 wells)
• 2 million gallons of water/day May through December

That's just the half of it


But that is just half the story. Lynn Helms said that other areas would also develop oil and these areas would also require about 20,000 to be fully developed. These areas include: Ward (Minot), Bottineau (Spearfish formation), Burke, Renville, McLean, Bowman, Slope and Stark.

The original timeline remains pretty much on schedule though it has been pushed out one to two years; according to Minot Daily News, Helms said that momentum was lost during the five-month price drop.

(Incidentally: "....momentum was lost during the five-month price drop." That tends to validate those who have noticed a paucity of new wells being reported this month. Are producers waiting for price of oil to trend upwards?)