Thursday, July 25, 2024

Commentary --- What Interests Me Now -- July 25, 2024

Locator: 48231COMMENTARY. 

The big stories that I am following and won't be able to post everything. There is just too much stuff happening.

California Supreme Court: Uber, Lyft win.

Under-reported investing story:

  • the yen -- could be a Black Swan event
  • Sara Eisen's expertise: currency markets

Presidential politics

  • Trump: two bumps in the polls
    • after the assassination attempt -- done
    • picking JD Vance -- done
  • Harris: three bumps in the polls
    • after Biden withdraws -- done
    • first national poll after this -- Harris, 44%; Trump, 42%
    • but this is the big story: 44 + 42 = 86
    • 14% of the electorate waiting to see Harris' VP pick
    • when she names her VP (it now looks like a former astronaut) -- yet to come
    • at / after the Democratic convention -- yet to come

Presidential politics:

  • if Trump loses
    • the turning point: pick of JD Vance as his running mate
  • if Harris loses
    • the turning point: her speech at the convention

The EV narrative

Three biggest lies:

  • Tesla's robotaxi coming out in 2025 (next year)
  • Stellantis marketing a $25,000 Jeep (ever)
  • Ford making money on "small" EVs

The market:

  • as usual, during periods of high volatility -- I pretty much ignore
  • exception:
    • Cramer's first hour
    • Halftime Report

The economy:

  • the GDP numbers today

Energy:

  • my interest is waning right now;
  • won't get excited until WTI reverses

Apple

  • always exciting

Inflation:

  • folks need to listen to Josh Brown's comments on "Halftime Report" today
    • strong GDP does not equal inflation
    • only two things driving "sticky" inflation right now: rent and labor
    • rent inflation has been broken (though rent is still a problem)
    • labor: unemployment numbers worsening -- if Fed is truly data dependent, Fed would "surprise" with an early cut
  • but there's no urgency to a rate cut
  • Fed rate cut in July: won't happen but there are a fair number of analysts suggesting it could happen
  • my hunch: no analyst would be surprised if there was a July cut

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