Commentary --- What Interests Me Now -- July 25, 2024

Locator: 48231COMMENTARY. 

The big stories that I am following and won't be able to post everything. There is just too much stuff happening.

California Supreme Court: Uber, Lyft win.

Under-reported investing story:

• the yen -- could be a Black Swan event
• Sara Eisen's expertise: currency markets
  

Presidential politics: 

• Trump: two bumps in the polls
• after the assassination attempt -- done
• picking JD Vance -- done
• Harris: three bumps in the polls
• after Biden withdraws -- done
• first national poll after this -- Harris, 44%; Trump, 42%
• but this is the big story: 44 + 42 = 86
• 14% of the electorate waiting to see Harris' VP pick
  
• when she names her VP (it now looks like a former astronaut) -- yet to come
• at / after the Democratic convention -- yet to come

Presidential politics:

• if Trump loses
• the turning point: pick of JD Vance as his running mate
• if Harris loses
• the turning point: her speech at the convention

The EV narrative

Three biggest lies:

• Tesla's robotaxi coming out in 2025 (next year)
• Stellantis marketing a $25,000 Jeep (ever)
• Ford making money on "small" EVs
  

The market:

• as usual, during periods of high volatility -- I pretty much ignore
• exception:
• Cramer's first hour
• Halftime Report

The economy:

• the GDP numbers today

Energy:

• my interest is waning right now;
• won't get excited until WTI reverses

Apple

• always exciting

Inflation:

• folks need to listen to Josh Brown's comments on "Halftime Report" today
• strong GDP does not equal inflation
• only two things driving "sticky" inflation right now: rent and labor
• rent inflation has been broken (though rent is still a problem)
• labor: unemployment numbers worsening -- if Fed is truly data dependent, Fed would "surprise" with an early cut
• but there's no urgency to a rate cut
• Fed rate cut in July: won't happen but there are a fair number of analysts suggesting it could happen
• my hunch: no analyst would be surprised if there was a July cut