Tuesday, September 8, 2020

Five Wells Coming Off The Confidential List; The Three WPX Nokota Wells Are DUCs -- September 8, 2020

OPEC basket, link here: huge drop; now trading at $41.64. The graphic almost looks like the OPEC basket is in free fall. This is quite remarkable. It will be interesting to read what the pundits have to say about this. All I can say is that this is an existential issue for the House of Saud. The graphic:

WTI: also appears to be in free fall; trending toward a 10% decline; now down 8.3%; down $3.29; trading at $36.48.

Tailwind for oil: my hunch is there are a number of factors of which I am not aware, but

  • this is the end of the driving season in the US
  • Labor Day weekend gasoline demand was not particularly remarkable
  • number of cases of Covid-19 increasing worldwide, making predictions of a second-wave pandemic almost a self-fulfilling prophecy
  • the reports over the weekend of all those oil tankers waiting to unload in China
  • but my hunch is that it is something of which I am absolutely not aware 
    • I doubt it has anything to do with Nancy's blowout but perhaps only her hairdresser knows for sure

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs, its back to ten but #10 doesn't excite me --
Cyclone 34, Minnkota Power Cooperative, J-ROC1 1, SWNW 4-141-83

$36.48
9/8/202009/08/201909/08/201809/08/201709/08/2016
Active Rigs1061665537

Five wells coming off the confidential list today --

Monday, September 7, 2020:

  • 37328, drl/NC, WPX,  Nokota 24-13-12HQ, Squaw Creek, no production data,
  • 36213, drl/NC, XTO, Allie 31X-24HXE, Alkali Creek, no production data,

Sunday, September 6, 2020:

  • 37133, drl/NC, WPX, Nokota 24-13-12HA, Squaw Creek, no production data,
  • 33864, drl/drl, Hess, BL-Myrtrice-156-96-2536H-5, Beaver Lodge,
Saturday, September 5, 2020:
  • 37134, drl/NC, WPX, Nokota 24-13-12HB, Squaw Creek, no production data,

RBN Energy, posted earlier. Will rebounding Canadian crude production fill up pipelines? Part 3. Archived.

Western Canadian producers have been deeply impacted by lower crude oil prices and the demand-destroying effects of COVID-19. This past spring, oil production in the vast region dropped by an estimated 940 Mb/d, or as much as 20% from the record highs earlier this year. Taking that much production offline helped in at least one sense: it eased long-standing constraints on takeaway pipelines like Enbridge’s Canadian Mainline, TC Energy’s Keystone Pipeline, and the government of Canada’s Trans Mountain Pipeline. Production has been rebounding this summer, however, and there are indications that pipeline constraints may be returning and apportionment of uncommitted space on some pipes may again become a persistent issue. Today, we continue a review of production and takeaway capacity in Alberta and its provincial neighbors with a look at apportionment trends on the biggest pipelines.

4 comments:

  1. lots of reasons for drop in oil price;
    -Summer demand has ended.
    -USA overall demand down including jet fuel.
    -China demand down.
    -World demand down
    -China getting cozy with Iran.
    -Folks replacing 15 year old cars/SUVs/trucks have much better fuel economy. Look at a Honda CRV for example or a Ford F-150. Not even considering EVs

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agree completely. But: what changed from Tuesday last week, to Tuesday, this week. The list this week is no different than the list last week. And the list was the same a month ago. But today, something else happened.

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    2. No hurricane in the GOM, Laura did little damage to oil production (remember what the BP Thunderhorse platform looked like in 2007). Nothing forecasted for the next 10-15 days, and now getting past the peak Cat 4-5 season for the GOM.

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    3. Can't disagree with those. Interesting they weren't on the original list.

      Delete

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