Locator: 49767B.
From the X-Files.
From Peter Zeihand, today: Global oil markets are nearing a massive shock as the shadow fleet edges towards collapse.
With mounting pressure from US seizures, Ukrainian drone attacks, and European interdictions, the roughly 1,000-tanker-strong shadow fleet is in the crosshairs of...everybody. As ships are confiscated, disabled, or destroyed, the numbers stop making sense for captains to run the risk.
This could trigger a severe tanker shortage, driving oil prices up, and making it harder for sanctioned countries to export. We're not just looking at an immediate price spike; this will be a prolonged oil shock impacting everything from transport to production.
Hamas: this is barely being reported. Hamas confirms death of five leaders incluing al-Sinwar's brother. Link here.
Israeli F-15s: link here. Pay attention.
Israel operates several F-15 models (my interest -- the F-15D was my primary a/c for maybe a decade in the USAF):
- the older F-15 A/B/C/D "Baz" variants -- air superiority
- the dedicated ground-attack F-15I "Ra'am" (Thunder) -- the "I" after the "15" stands for the Israeli variant;
- is now acquiring the "Advanced Eagle," the F-151A -- "I" = Israeli and "A" = Advanced
- for enhanced strike and rage, significantly boosting their strategic capabilities
- complements their existing F-15s and F-35.
So, what happened to the F-35? From AI:
The F-22 Raptor's production ended early (in 2011) due to spiraling costs, the perceived lack of a near-peer threat after the Cold War, its limited relevance in counter-insurgency wars (Iraq/Afghanistan), and a strategic shift towards the more versatile, cheaper F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, despite strong USAF interest in a larger fleet. The lack of export potential (due to a US ban) also hampered economies of scale, making it a prime target for budget cuts.
- Key reasons for early cancellation:
- Cost Overruns: Each F-22 was extremely expensive (around $150 million each in 2009 dollars), making it a significant budget concern.
- Post-Cold War Shift: With the Soviet Union gone, the primary threat of a massive air war against a peer adversary diminished, reducing the perceived need for such a specialized fighter.
- Focus on Counter-Insurgency: The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan required versatile, multi-role aircraft, not just air superiority fighters, making the F-22 seem less relevant.
- Rise of the F-35: The more affordable and versatile F-35 Lightning II offered multi-role capabilities (air-to-air, ground attack, reconnaissance) for multiple services, becoming a preferred alternative.
- No Export Market: A 1998 law banned F-22 sales to foreign countries, preventing additional orders that could have lowered unit costs.
Cost of an F-15: link here. It certainly looks like the F-15 is going to be the "B-52 of fighter planes" for longevity and versatility. Truly amazing.
Currently, three fighter jets remain in production for the United States military: the F-15EX Eagle II, the F-35A/B/C Lightning II, and the F/A/18 Super Hornet.
The F-16 Block 70/72 Fighting Falcon is also in production, but it is exclusively exported, although the production line also helps to maintain and upgrade the Air Force's existing fleet.
All three of these aircraft are expensive, costing between $70 million and upwards of $110 million in flyaway costs per aircraft. Putting a single number on the cost of any fighter jet is difficult and problematic. This is because the cost of these aircraft is extremely complicated, and it depends on what costs are included or excluded.
That said, the per-unit flyaway cost of an F-15EX can be estimated.
It may come as a surprise to many, but the fly-away cost of a Boeing F-15EX is now higher than a Lockheed Martin F-35A
