From hellenicshippingnews, four hours ago:
U.S. oil production has fallen more than 2 million barrels per day since March 2020. Many reasonably expect that DUCs (drilled uncompleted wells) provide a solution to output falling further.
They won’t.
There are about 5,800 DUCs in the main U.S. tight oil plays. These are already drilled and could be converted into producing wells for the cost of completion which is about half the total well cost.
Most DUCs, however, are uncompleted for a reason namely, that their owners don’t believe that their performance will be as good as wells that they chose to complete instead.
Even assuming similar performance, the larger problem is that large numbers of DUCs are already being completed and official EIA 914 production remains less than 10.5 mmb/d.
North Dakota publishes monthly data on DUCs that can be compared with active, producing wells.
See linked article for more and for graphics.
With regard to the article: if only it were that simple.
Tag: Director's Cut. North Dakota production --
- March, 2020: 1,428,273 bopd; DUCs: 975; rig count: 52 rigs;
- November 2021: 1,224,540 bopd (preliminary); DUCs: 710; 11 rigs;
Note: Friday, May 15, 2020, the number of active rigs in North Dakota: 12.
Delta:
- November, 2021 / March, 2020, crude oil production: down 14%
- November, 2021 / March, 2020, active rigs: down 80%
- November, 2021 / March, 2020, DUCs: down 27%;
And after all that, I don't think it's a matter of "DUCs" saving the shale industry. As Art Berman himself said, the industry is made of myriad details: DUCs are just one component, albeit a huge component. I suppose it's like grain in silos. That grain may or may not save a farmer from bankruptcy -- too many other factors to consider -- but that grain in the silo does provide some life support. All things being equal, a farmer would appreciate grain in a silo rather than no grain in the silo.
