Completion Strategies, Bakken 4.0 -- Fracking Question Now That We're In Bakken 4.0 -- March 26, 2020

Background: we entered "Bakken 4.0" in March, 2020. My hunch is that fracking / completion strategies will change -- some operators will change immediately; others will take a little longer.

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Something New?
Group 2
moderate frack;
very low percentage of fresh water, supplemented with produced water;

MRO:

• 6.1 - 7.0 million gallons of water; 58.7% and 70.2% water by mass; link here;
• 7.0 million gallons of water; 70% water by mass; Antelope-Sanish; link here;
• several examples; link here;
  

Enerplus:

• 6 - 8 million gallons of water; 65% water by mass; link here; "National Park" wells in Eagle Nest oil field;
• 6 - 8 million gallons of water; 65% water by mass; Enerplus Cloudy pad; tracked here;

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Something New?
Group 1

large frack; large percentage water

Slawson:

• 15 million gallons of water; 93% of water by mass;

Oasis:

• 12 - 14 million gallons of water; 92% to 94% water by mass; the Oasis Joplin wells in Banks oil field;
• 19 million gallons of water; 92% water by mass; another Joplin well in the Banks oil field;
• 11.6 million gallons of water; another with almost 19 million gallons of water; both with water about 93% by mass; two of several Bobby wells in Squires; north of Williston, not a particularly great field;
  

XTO:

• 18 million gallons of water; 93.4% water by mass; the XTO Cole wells in Siverston oil field;
• 17.9 million gallons of water; 90.4% water by mass; an XTO Arlys well in Siverston oil field;
  

Petro-Hunt:

• 24 million gallons of water; 93% by mass; a USA well in Charlson oil field; 
• 15.4 million gallons of water; 92.5% water by mass; a USA well in Phelps Bay;
  
  

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First Group
small - medium fracks

EOG:

• Clarks Creek, Antelope-Sanish: 5.6 million gallons of water; 85% water by mass;

BR:

• 33 stages; 5.1 million lbs: #31639;
• 37 stages; only 4.3 million lbs; very small; #30232; also, #30233;
  

Hess:

• 30 stages; 10 million lbs for Three Forks and middle Bakken;
• Tioga field: 11 million gallons of water, middle Bakken;
  

Whiting:

• decreased stages; smaller amount of sand;

WPX:

• decreased stages (23); small amount water; very small amount friction reducer;
• WPX, Rubia: 5.2 million gallons of water; small frack; huge well;
• WPX: Badger, Squaw Creek: 5.1 million gallons of water; 83% water by mass;
  

 

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Second Group
medium - large fracks

EOG:

• moderate number of stages; large amount of sand;

Kraken:

• Oliver oil field, Hobart well: 10.2 million gallons of water;

Nine Point Energy:

• high number of stages; large amount of sand;
• 80-stage frack; 13 million lbs; and, here; and, here;

MRO:

• frack data not yet available from the NDIC:
• from FracFocus, moderate fracks with 7 - 8 million gallons of water:
• huge wells, Antelope-Sanish;

Original Post

Just throwing this out for discussion (it's rhetorical); we'll see over the next twelve months.

I was unimpressed with the initial production for the Whiting well that came off the confidential list today, especially for Big Bend oil field, but then I saw the number of stages -- only 35 stages and a moderate frack, 7.4 million lbs. 

The question becomes:

• when oil is trending toward $0/bbl (no typo), is it more economical to max out the frack to get highest IP possible and then choke back for a year; or is it more economical to minimize initial production using a smaller frack and then coming back (years later?) when prices are better? 

• Other questions:
• does choking back cause more problems for the "durability" of a well?
• what affect on the well is caused by choking back for a year or longer? 
• fracking is now said to account for upwards of 2/3rds of total cost of a new well; if much of that is due to cost of sand (transportation, etc), does it make sense to use smaller frack, better technology?

Completion strategies beginning in 2018 are tracked here. 

The well:

• 36323, 563, Whiting, Oppeboen 14-5HU, Big Bend, t10/19; cum 62K 1/20; 1K month; 35 stages; 7.4 million lbs; fracked 8/1/19 - 8/7/19; 6.5 million gallons; 87.7% water by mass (on the low side, by percentage); 
 

From the file report:

• wow, look how fast they drilled this well 
• spud: June 3, 2019
• cease drilling: June 11, 2019
• logging services began at 1930 hours, June 5, 2019
• the curve was landed at 0850, June 8, 2019
• lateral began at 0550, June 9, 2019
• drill rates averaged 400 ft/hour