Wednesday, January 17, 2018

This One Graphic Could Keep Me Busy For Years -- January 17, 2018

Updates

February 26, 2018: update here, stunning.

Original Post

This is the graphic:



I first posted this graphic at this post when I noted the production profile of #23495.

So, now, pick another horizontal. Let's pick #19397:
  • 19397, 417, CLR, Buelingo 1-20H, Elm Tree, t3/11; cum 227K 11/17 (note, it's even started flaring again):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2017325481923143332072656534
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-20170000000
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-20170000000
BAKKEN5-20170000000
BAKKEN4-2017002100000
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-2017227247131801470122670
BAKKEN1-201731112912024452163182293
BAKKEN12-201630144012134412228194651
BAKKEN11-20160000000
BAKKEN10-201626188420693633539326178

Production of 2,548 bbls over three days extrapolates to 25,480 bbls/month.

Production profile after initial frack:
BAKKEN10-201126492850221125573823183420
BAKKEN9-20112144514515812487548750
BAKKEN8-201131587357701030805680560
BAKKEN7-20113162886396118582197569650
BAKKEN6-201130666569101228858747173870
BAKKEN5-201131744176561395102499524725
BAKKEN4-2011308927874719971158680493537
BAKKEN3-2011301402613414470117110017110

So, how do analysts predict production in the Bakken when strange things like this happen? And these events will increase in frequency as the Bakken is drilled out over the next 30 years.

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