This One Graphic Could Keep Me Busy For Years -- January 17, 2018

Updates

February 26, 2018: update here, stunning.

Original Post

This is the graphic:

I first posted this graphic at this post when I noted the production profile of #23495.

So, now, pick another horizontal. Let's pick #19397:

• 19397, 417, CLR, Buelingo 1-20H, Elm Tree, t3/11; cum 227K 11/17 (note, it's even started flaring again):

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2017	3	2548	1923	1433	3207	2656	534
BAKKEN	10-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	0	0	210	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	22	724	713	180	1470	1226	70
BAKKEN	1-2017	31	1129	1202	445	2163	1822	93
BAKKEN	12-2016	30	1440	1213	441	2228	1946	51
BAKKEN	11-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2016	26	1884	2069	363	3539	3261	78

Production of 2,548 bbls over three days extrapolates to 25,480 bbls/month.

Production profile after initial frack:

BAKKEN	10-2011	26	4928	5022	1125	5738	2318	3420
BAKKEN	9-2011	21	4451	4515	812	4875	4875	0
BAKKEN	8-2011	31	5873	5770	1030	8056	8056	0
BAKKEN	7-2011	31	6288	6396	1185	8219	7569	650
BAKKEN	6-2011	30	6665	6910	1228	8587	4717	3870
BAKKEN	5-2011	31	7441	7656	1395	10249	9524	725
BAKKEN	4-2011	30	8927	8747	1997	11586	8049	3537
BAKKEN	3-2011	30	14026	13414	4701	17110	0	17110

So, how do analysts predict production in the Bakken when strange things like this happen? And these events will increase in frequency as the Bakken is drilled out over the next 30 years.