When will tight oil make money?
A great analysis from Wood Mackenzie. Three reasons why one would not expect to see positive cash flow in the shale oil industry (think Amazon in the early years):
- early life
- high growth
- capital intensive
Operators have spent a lot of money:
- acquiring positions
- investing in infrastructure
- getting up the learning curve
The shale oil industry is in early stages; much of this is structural, not cyclical.
The analyst gets specific regarding oil prices:
- $50 oil or better: positive cash flow
- $45 - $50 oil: operators will make production/growth targets but at expense of cash flow
- below $45: operators will have to change their behavior, but it would take a full 12 months of $45-oil, and Wood Mackenzie thinks that is unlikely to happen
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