Tuesday, September 20, 2022

One Well Coming Off Confidential List -- September 20, 2022

Covid-19: folks are misinterpreting Biden's remarks. Administration will walk back Biden's remarks when it goes to Congress for more Covid funding.

Apple page: new iPad to be announced next week?

Supply chain: shortage persists; perplexing. No one can explain.

  • every industry hurting, but is truck manufacturing / automobile manufacturing the worst hit?

Toilet paper: in Europe, next crisis. Americans may want to take note.

Germany: more and more reports of factories closing.  

Squeezable, best, by far: grape jelly.

  • why did it take so long?

NFL: Monday night -- the NFL is back. Buffalo Bills -- Josh Allen -- Stephon Diggs

  • in first two games, Buffalo Bills has outscored opponents 72 - 17
  • it would be worse, but by the end of the third quarter, more points no longer matter

NFL: for the Miami Dolphins, the first three quarters did not matter -- 

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Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 46.

WTI: $85.39.

Natural gas: $7.750.

New well status: 90%+ of wells coming off confidential list are going to loc/drl status.

Wednesday, September 21, 2022: 33 for the month, 83 for the quarter, 422 for the year
38698, conf, Rimrock, MC 14-11 Narwhal 34H,
38723, conf, Ovintiv, Calhoun 149-98-3-10-11H,
38204, conf, Whiting, Lehr 11-13-2HU,

Tuesday, September 20, 2022: 30 for the month, 80 for the quarter, 419 for the year
38726, conf, Slawson, Cannonball Federal 1 SLH,

RBN Energy: changes to global refining industry fueled by pandemic, economics.

The high cost of gasoline and diesel and their impact on inflation and the global economy has been a major market development this year ... 

... with the blame typically being cast on politicians, oil producers and policies intended to limit development of traditional energy resources and encourage decarbonization — and sometimes all of the above. Prices have retreated in recent weeks amid lower consumer demand and worries about the state of the global economy, but long-term concerns about global refining capacity and the possibility of another price spike remain.

In its highly publicized June 15 letter to U.S. oil executives, the Biden administration demanded refiners reactivate lost capacity and increase production, an acknowledgement that consumer demand had outstripped refining capacity. And although we tend to focus on the U.S. refining picture, refined products trade globally, just like crude oil, and international refinery closures ultimately have the same effect on the worldwide market as domestic shutdowns.

Most refining-capacity reductions in recent years — in the U.S. and elsewhere — were driven by the same forces, namely, poor economics resulting from the pandemic-driven demand plunge in 2020 and 2021 as well as expectations that margins would take a long time to recover post-COVID. 

(We should note that refinery profitability has been high this summer and remains strong despite the recent price decreases.) 

Of course, worries that the energy transition and policies to that end would suppress demand in the long-term also played a key role, as did some fundamental competitiveness issues at individual facilities. Here are the key issues we discuss in our new report on global refining.

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