Sunday, November 7, 2021

Notes From All Over -- Sunday Evening -- November 7, 2021

Kyle Larson: wins NASCAR cup series. All final four drivers  finish in the top four. Standings going into the race: K. Larson; Elliott, Truex, Jr.; and, D. Hamlin. 

LA Chargers (5-3) defeat the Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) with a last second field goal. Jim Cramer? Not gonna be happy tomorrow morning. NFC East, Dallas Cowboys are out in front.

Winter has arrived! In China. First snowfall recorded for the year. Twenty-three days early. Link here. 

ISO NE: two spikes today; currently running $100 / MWh. And this is a quiet Sunday afternoon. Wow. 

Covid-19: vaccinations -- overall numbers doing very well; vaccinations given each day running 1.5 million doses / day since the "Biden mandate" vs 700,000 doses / day prior to the "Biden mandate."

Futures:

  • much lower than I expected and mixed
    • Dow: +27
    • S&P 55: - 2
    • NASDAQ: -37
    • WTI: up slightly; $81.60

Tesla: what to watch for this week -- Elon Musk to sell ten percent of his Tesla shares.

Europe energy crisis, link to Tsvetana Paraskova:

  • lowest level of gas in storage in a decade
  • Europe could tap the so-called "cushion gas"
    • cushion gas is that gas the supplies "pressure" at storage facilities
  • would be easier if Russia supplied necessary gas
  • a cold winter: natural gas in storage could fall to zero by the end of March, 2022

Trial balloon: SecEnergy as much as said that the decision had been made to close Line 5 on the Sunday morning talk shows. 

Three letters: CBR. And trucks. With or without the link, the demand will still be there. Just more expensive. It's only 540,000 bopd of Canadian oil; certainly OPEC+ can provide the shortfall if the line closed. Let them eat cake. 
You know, it's interesting: the political damage has already been done, telegraphing they want to close that line. If they were politically astute there line should be, "we are going to do what it takes to make the line safer before we even consider closing it. And certainly we won't close it before this cold winter." SecEnergy Jennifer Granholm was the governor of Michigan before she was tapped by Brandon to move to DC.

Running the numbers: if you look at the numbers, do a little arithmetic, one can tell Pelosi knew exactly what she had, and we were all being played:

******************************
Why Not, Again 

Play this really, really loud and really, really pay attention to her voice, and maybe you can forget you are getting played.

Silver Threads and Golden Needles, Linda Ronstadt

4 comments:

  1. Still waiting for the tease info.

    P.s. I hate the trend towards teasing. So common on blogs, twitter now. Almost always underwhelms when we finally get the info. If you can't share it, then just wait or don't tease. But the whole Q-anon style Twitter tease is silly.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's been posted. Keep looking. Posted earlier today.

      Delete
  2. I looked three times but can't find it. Talking about the CLR-PXD review ("giant tease"). Help?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are correct; the "tease" was over-hyped. I apologize.

      As a reminder, this was the question I said I would answer over the weekend:

      "If you were fully invested in CLR (financially or emotionally or however you want to define "fully invested") would you have been happy with this breaking development, that CLR invested in the Permian, in this way, to this degree."


      After extensive evaluation of what we know about the deal, the answer to the question from the person that I trust most on the Bakken is: "the jury is still out." [Because of the business this reader is in, that's probably the only answer he/she could give.]

      His/her answer was based, I assume, on rational evaluation of the deal, OBJECTIVE data.

      I considered many other factors than just OBJECTIVE data, to include SUBJECTIVE data. Based on that, the totality of data, OBJECTIVE and SUBJECTIVE, the definitive answer to the question ["If you were fully invested in CLR (financially or emotionally or however you want to define "fully invested") would you have been happy with this breaking development, that CLR invested in the Permian, in this way, to this degree."] is a definite YES.

      The answer, and I apologize, if "taken out of context," does not rise to the level I had hoped. However, in the process of answering that question, a huge number of data points were provided that have NOT been provided anywhere else in the mainstream media.

      Those data points were what got me very, very excited. A lot of questions were answered which have not been answered anywhere else. It would be interesting if RBN Energy would address CLR's entry into the Permian.

      I have provided a long, long list of factors that need to be considered when asking that question. I will continue to address the question, but it will be done over time.

      The question is addressed at this site: https://permianclrmdw.blogspot.com/. That site is still under construction. There is so much that must be addressed.

      But, again, bottom line:

      Definitive answer from me to the question as asked, Harold Hamm's decision to enter the Permian the way he did was brilliant.

      Definitive answer from an expert on the Bakken: "the jury is still out."

      *********************

      It's interesting. I guess to the casual readers or those who only follow the Bakken superficially or in a general manner, there really is "nothing to see here."

      However, to those who really follow the Bakken, those who live and breathe the Bakken, who can read the between the lines, should be thrilled with some of the data points provided by the reader, an expert on the Bakken, and the long list of questions I provided that need to be addressed.

      Delete

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.