Wednesday, April 21, 2021

Global And US Crude Oil Inventories -- April 21, 2021

The other day I posted this:

Saudi: oil in storage. Starting about now, Saudis will start increasing their domestic consumption of oil for generating electricity for air conditioning.

To continue the discussion, here are a few more links to articles posted since that graphic above was posted:

  • global oil surplus diminishing, Arkansas Democrat Gazette, re-posts a Bloomberg article that may end up behind a paywall;
  • there's a lot of unused oil stored up around the world, see previous data point; Bloomberg;
  • physical oil market is flashing green; overhang disappears; HFI Research; full article at SeekingAlpha

From the Bloomberg article showing the global drawdown:



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The Weekly Petroleum Data: API and EIA

The EIA weekly petroleum report data is posted below. This was Julianne Geiger's "take" on the API report yesterday -- yes, it was another "surprise." We've talked about this before. Every weekly report seems to be an "unexpected" build or an "unexpected" draw. API yesterday:

  • analysts forecast a 2.9-million-bbl draw;
  • in fact, a build of 436,000 bbls (one can scoff at the fake precision)

EIA weekly petroleum report, link here:

  • US crude oil in storage: 493.0 million bbls;
  • US crude oil in storage increased by 0.6 million bbls from the previous week;
  • refiners operating at 85% of their operable capacity
  • the US imported 5.4 million bbls of crude oil per day last week, down by about half-a-million bopd;
  • over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.9 million bopd, 5% more than the same four-week period last year;
  • distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.1 million bbls; supplies at 2% above the five-year average;
  • jet fuel delivered: up a whopping 63% compare with same four-week pandemic-lockdown period last year;

It seems everything is pretty much unremarkable, except maybe two items:

  • crude oil imports are still running 5% higher than four-week period last year;
  • the marked change in jet fuel being delivered: one year ago, lockdowns were just beginning; major flight restrictions; this year, now, flying is getting back to normal (sort of)
    • it will be interesting to see how fast things can change; 
    • by the way, I wonder if Greta took a private jet to DC this week, if she flew commercial, if she sailed on a cruise ship, or if she rowed herself over her. I really don't know.  If asked, my hunch is she would respond along this line (a huge "thank you" to a reader"

After the report, WTI recovers slightly but still down 1%; trading right at $62. 

Jet fuel delivered:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week



Week

Date of Report

Change

Week 41

March 3, 2021

-24.20%

Week 42

March 10, 2021

-29.80%

Week 43

March 17, 2021

-36.20%

Week 44

March 24, 2021

-35.40%

Week 45

March 31, 2021

-30.20%

Week 46

April 7, 2021

-11.70%

Week 47

April 14, 2021

24.80%

Week 48

April 21, 2021

62.90%

2 comments:

  1. Like the market as a whole, WTI may be down, slightly, but trending upward. A month ago it was in the mid 50's, but now the low 60's and its down? I say woohoo!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agree completely; these graphs are incredibly interesting, especially when one considers that the global economy may surge as we move past the pandemic.

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