Monday, December 16, 2019

All Politics -- Four National Polls Just Released -- December 16, 2019

The four national polls:
  • Quinnipiac, 12/11- 12/15;
  • USA Today, 12/10 - 12/14;
  • NPR/PBS/Marist, 12/9 - 12/11;
  • IBD/TIPP, 12/5 - 12/14;
Results:
  • Placeholder for Hillary: range, 26% to 30%; no change from earlier polls
  • Sanders: 14% to 22%; the 22% was with NPR/PBS/Marist
  • Pocahontas: 13% to 17%
  • Buttigieg: 8% to 13%; again, the 13% was with NPR/PBS/Marist; overall -- unimpressive
  • the others are irrelevant, but for the record:
  • Bloomberg: 5% to 7%;
  • Klobuchar: 2% to 4%; whoo-hoo; a legend in her own mind;
  • Steyer: 0% (NPR) to 2% (IPD) but average is maybe 1%
The way it works:
  • one must garner 15% of all votes to take any delegates
  • as it stands, Biden -- the placeholder for Hillary -- takes all delegates or shares delegates with Sanders/Pocahontas
  • others have no chance for any delegates
Final comments:
  • Steyer and Bloomberg: vanity runs; neither getting much traction
  • Hillary: recalculating ... recalculating ... recalculating ... as long as Biden remains the under 35% front-runner she can hope for a brokered convention ... but because of the "way it works" there may not be a brokered convention....

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