With regard to my notes regarding Russian oil (Urals, specifically), a reader responds:
Urals is more of a medium grade, about 31 API gravity. Comparable to Mars grade from US GOM or Alaskan North Slope. Nothing like Canadian or VZ grades that can be 10 API or lower, and are usually around 17 API during transport. (California crude is also about 17.)
The sulfur content of Urals has been creeping up lately, from 1.3% towards high 1s or even 2%. But that's really still comparable to Mars grade or ANS and still less than classic medium grades like Basra. And it's not like the 4% in Canadian, VZ, or California heavy crudes.
Also, note that the world is NOT short of medium, heavy, or light grades. This is all silliness from reporters and analysts that have never really worked in refineries or traded oil globally. Mixing, moving crudes is very normal and has been something the industry has done for last 100 years as new fields of different grades came on line.
Also, FWIW, medium sour grades like Mars, Urals, ANS, Basra still trade at LOWER prices than WTI/Brent (classic light sweet). And heavy grades have even lower prices than medium. Yes, the world got a lot of light sweet from West Texas and the Bakken, but it just (slightly) shrunk the advantage of light sweet. It has not reversed the advantage.
Also, Bakken oil is near perfect, like WTI, in terms of API and sulfur content. Gets premium pricing AFTER reaching its destination. So, if you're trading in Houston or Rotterdam or Singapore, WTI/Brent/Bakken (all very similar) get the premium price. Only reason you see lower sometimes is because of transport (pricing them in the field, versus at the customer).
The reader follows up with these comments (see comments below):
But another issue is some stories talking about the big discounts Urals crude is getting lately.
Over the last month (and mostly last few days), Urals has moved from Brent-$2 to Brent-$12. So you see a lot of posts about Russians hurting on oil prices. But this ignores that Brent itself moved from $90 to $110 over the last month (mostly last few days). So actually Urals is up about $10: from $88 to $98.
Oil tankers are still moving Urals in both the Baltic and Black Seas. However, much of it is now going to Asia (longer transit, more expensive) and there are also risks associated with each of those routes (and to financial payments with Russia). So that's why Urals has moved from -$2 to -$12. It's just needed to compensate the Asian buyers for a longer trip and higher risks.
But net/net: oil is still flowing. And Russians actually getting more per barrel, when you do the math for the Brent increase along with the diff increase.
