Saturday, February 18, 2023

Could Oil Go Negative Again? Several Things Should Worry Oil Investors -- February 18, 2023

Little things that should worry us:

  • Weekly EIA petroleum report, last week:
    • US crude oil in storage increased by a record-setting 16 million bbls
    • US crude oil in storage is now 8% greater than its five-year average
  • the price of WTI is established at Cushing, OK:
  • there are indications that supplies at Cushing could surge;
  • the #1 US crude oil export terminal, Corpus Christi, is near its max
  • CC is near its max and there are projections that the Permian will break all-time production records this summer
  • the amount of crude oil in US storage is now at 31.2 days -- a two-year-record (will link and post later)
  • the Europeans are adapting to the war
  • the Chinese re-opening is nowhere near as robust as "we all" predicted
  • American office workers are still dragging their feet over whether to return to the office
  • Devon cut its dividend; DVN is not buying back much in the way of shares; and, DVN shares are flat / negative y/y -- DVN was the darling of Wall Street Permian investors
  • Chevron is going to add 100,000 bopd out off Venezuela starting next month; that's a small amount but it's my understanding that is must be routed to US refineries

SJT: San Juan Trust -- did anyone see this?

  • SJT more than doubled its "dividend" month-over-month; from 11 cents to 25 cents:
  • SJT more than tripled its "dividend" year-over-year; from 8 cents to 25 cents:


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US Crude Oil In Storage: Days of Supply

Link here.


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