The post below is from my e-mail to a couple of other folks (all my stuff; no one else's -- so anything wrong is all my fault). It may or may not make sense to anyone else and it certainly isn't ready for "prime time" but it is what it is.
Here goes.
Why are not all wells put on the confidential list?
A writer sent in that question
when he noted that the four (4) most recent KOG wells were reported way ahead of schedule (before the six months were up) and it turned out these wells were never on the confidential list.
I've
always known a "few" wells were not on the confidential list, but never
worried about it. This got me wondering. It turns out that up to 70% of permits/wells may not be getting placed on the confidential list. That means that of the 2,200 wells on the confidential list, there could be as many
3,500 or so locations being drilled or waiting to be drilled in the Williston Basin, North Dakota.
That
makes sense because I've always thought based on # of permits
issued/year divided by 12 months suggests that 200 - 210 wells should be
reported each month; but yet it looks like about 160 - 175 wells
actually "come off the confidential list."
The other wells are mixed in with the group of "producing wells that have been completed" that are also reported most days on the daily activity report. That group includes wells that were confidential and went to DRL status, and it also includes wells that were never on the confidential list.
Here was my answer to the individual who asked about wells not being placed on confidential list:
1. One cannot simply go to the confidential list and assume the missing permit numbers were not put on the confidential list; some may have been on the confidential list and already reported and thus have come off.
However, if you take the most recent permits one can assume they have not been drilled yet.
So, I took the most recent 140 permits, and then plugged in / counted all the missing permit numbers. There were 99 permits "missing." The total came to 239 permits (140 + 99). It appears that 99 permits in this batch were not accounted for.
99/140 = 70.71%.
That means it is likely that as many as 70% of permits/wells are not on the confidential list at the time the application goes in. Of course, any point along the way, the operator can request the well be put on the confidential list.
2. It would be easier to request "confidential" at the time the application is filled out; there's a box in the upper right corner of the application -- form H1 -- requesting/not requesting confidentiality. The operator simply types in "yes" or "no."
So, the question is why would an operator not request "confidentiality." It does not cost anything; no additional fee, as far as I know. If there is, it would be nominal.
3. I think this is the answer. The state wants the industry to be as transparent as possible. The state would prefer nothing be confidential, but of course, that isn't going to happen. So, the state and the oil companies work together, come up with a compromise and agree that "confidentiality" is not just automatic.
There has to be a reason for granting confidentiality. You notice on the daily activity report that there is often a list of permits in which the state authorizes confidentiality.
My hunch is that the state does not automatically grant confidentiality. If an operator wants a well to be confidential, the state has to see a valid reason. Once you start getting to 26 wells in one section, and results of wells in that section and the surrounding sections are well known, it's hard to see the need for confidentiality. As it is, the state seems very, very liberal in granting "confidentiality."
4. But why don't the companies simply check "YES" anyway in the box? I think the risk is that it will slow down the process. If the company checks "YES" the permit won't be granted until the state has a chance to determine the need. Obviously if the permit is for a wildcat, no problem, or for a new formation. But if this is the 26th well in a given oil field, or even in the a given section, the state could really require a lot of paperwork explaining why the operator wants the well to be confidential.
*******************************
29544: conf,
29543: conf,
29542: conf,
29541: conf,
29540: conf,
29539: loc, HRC, Tyrone, north of Williston, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29538: loc, HRC, Tyrone, north of Williston, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29537: conf,
29536: conf,
29535: conf,
29534: conf,
29533: conf,
29532: conf,
29531: conf,
29530: conf,
29529: conf,
29528: conf,
29527: conf,
29526: loc, EOG, Parshall; extremely well-known field; when will this go conf? [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29525: loc, EOG, Parshall; extremely well-known field; when will this go conf? [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29524: loc, OXY USA; Manning; extremely well-known field; when will this go conf?[December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29523: loc, QEP; Blue Buttes; extremely well-known field; [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29522: loc, Oasis; Missouri Ridge; should see change; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29521: loc, Oasis; Missouri Ridge; should see change; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29520: loc, QEP; Grail, extremely well-known field, [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29519: loc, QEP: Grail, extremely well-known field, [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29518: loc, Oasis; Missouri Ridge; should see change; [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29517: conf,
29516: loc, Liberty Resources, McGregor; should see change; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29515: loc, Liberty Resources, McGregor; should see change; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29514: loc, Liberty Resources, McGregor; should see change; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29513: loc, Liberty Resources, McGregor; should see change; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29512: loc; Liberty Resources, McGregor; should see change; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29511: loc, Liberty Resources, McGregor; should see change; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29510: conf,
29509: conf,
29508: conf,
29507: conf,
29506: loc, Whiting, Glass Bluff, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29505: loc, Whiting, Glass Bluff, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29504: loc, Whiting, Glass Bluff, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29503: conf,
29502: loc, Oasis, Camp, a well-known field, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29501: loc, Oasis, Camp a well-known field, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29500: loc, Oasis, Camp, a well-known field, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29499: loc, Oasis, Camp, a well-known field, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29498: conf,
29497: conf,
29496: conf,
29495: conf,
29494: conf,
29493: conf,
29492: conf,
29491: conf,
29490: conf,
29489: conf,
29488: conf,
29487: conf,
29486: conf,
29485: conf,
29484: conf,
29483: conf,
29482: conf,
29481: loc, a well-studied Brooklyn oil field; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29480: loc, a well-studied Brooklyn oil field; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29479: conf,
29478: loc, CLR, Chimney Butte, [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29477: loc, CLR, Chimney Butte, [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29476: loc, CLR, Chimney Butte, [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29475: loc, CLR, Chimney Butte, [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29474: loc, CLR, Chimney Butte, [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29473: loc, CLR, Chimney Butte, [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29472: conf,
29471: conf,
29470: conf,
29469: conf,
29468: conf,
29467: conf,
29466: conf,
29465: conf,
29464: conf,
29463: conf,
29462: conf,
29461: conf,
29460: conf,
29459: conf,
29458: conf,
29457: conf,
29456: conf,
29455, drl, Triangle, Williston, spud 9/26/14; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29454, drl, Triangle, Williston, spud 9/28/14; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29453, drl, Triangle, Williston, spud 9/30/14; [December 23, 2014; now DRL, well file available]
29452, conf,
29451, loc, QEP, Bear Den, a well-known field, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29450, loc, QEP, Bear Den, a well-known field, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29449: conf,
29448: conf,
29447: conf,
29446: conf,
29445: conf,
29444: conf,
29443: conf,
29442: conf,
29441: conf,
29440: conf,
105 wells
- 3: already on DRL status; unlikely they were ever confidential; DRL status means you can see the file
- 34: loc; did not request confidential status with permit
- 68: requested confidential status with permit
2. Very, very well-known fields; some of the very well-known operators don't ask to put the wells on confidential at the time of the application; the field is already well-known; it will be interesting to see if these wells ever go to CONF
3. I was only surprised by the Liberty Resources wells in McGregor not put on CONF; later I will take a look at the GIS map server to see if there is an easy explanation
4. In the big scheme of things, it seems rare for operators at this point in the Bakken not to put their wells on confidential status at the time of the application. Only after we follow these wells for awhile will we get a sense how rare it is for any well never to be on CONF status.
*************************
30 Sept 14
29555, conf,
29554, loc, CLR, Rattlesnake Point, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29553, loc, CLR, Rattlesnake Point, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29552, loc, CLR, Rattlesnake Point, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29551, loc, CLR, Rattlesnake Point, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29550, loc, CLR, Rattlesnake Point, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29549, loc, CLR, Rattlesnake Point, [December 23, 2014; still LOC, well file available]
29548, conf,
29547, conf,
29546, conf,
29545, conf,
