Friday, September 26, 2014

Market Shenanigans -- September 26, 2014; Update/Overview Of ONEOK

2Q14 GDP better than previously reported: this is the third estimate -- now at 4.6%, better than the 4.2% at the second estimate, and much better than the original 4% estimate. Forbes is reporting:
On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its third estimate of real gross domestic product for the second quarter of 2014 — covering April, May and June of this year. The release showed output in the U.S. increasing at an annual rate of 4.6%. This is relative to the first quarter when real GDP declined a sharp 2.1%.
The revision is up from BEA’s 4.2% second estimate released last month as well as its 4% advance estimate out in July. The revision, BEA said in a release, was largely due to a larger than previously estimated increase in nonresidential fixed investment and exports. Of the revision the BEA wrote, “The general picture of economic growth remains the same” as when it released the second estimate.
The 4.6% growth in real GDP reflected growing personal consumption, private inventory investment, exports, both residential and nonresidential fixed investment, as well as local government spending. The gains were partially offset by an increase in imports, which negatively impact GDP, and a 0.9% decline in federal government expenditures.
At this rate, US GDP for the 2Q14 will be estimated to have exceeded that of China's 8% by the time elections roll around in November. The bad news, of course, is when the third quarter GDP estimate comes out: gonna be hard to beat a 4.6% growth in GDP.

By the way, this is the fastest (US) growth (4.6%) since 4Q11. That's very impressive. The EU, on the other hand, is in a heap of trouble.
The German-based bank changed its mind after slicing its 2015 GDP view for the bloc to growth of 1% from 1.5%, noting, “the growth picture combined with softer commodity prices is increasing the risk of a flatter profile to the inflation trajectory.”
The GDP growth delta between the US and the EU could get much worse based on the the cost of energy in the US vs the EU.

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Yesterday the market "plunged" over 250 points. The mainstream media 30-second soundbite: world turmoil (ObamaWar, Ukraine) "roils" the market. (Their word, not mine).

Today, the market  is back up over 115 points. I guess the "world turmoil" ended. LOL.

No, there's another reason for the 250 points lost yesterday and the 115-point gain at this point in time today.

It's hard for me to believe that the market took off based on the 2Q14 GDP revision of 0.4%. Insignificant.

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

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ONEOK

This is a most comprehensive update on ONEOK over at Market Realist. When you get to the link, be sure you are at the very top, Part 1. It is very, very easy to scroll down through all 15 parts of the "series."
Why Williston Basin is key
According to the company’s 10-K annual report, OKS is the largest independent operator of natural gas gathering and processing facilities in the Williston Basin, which includes the Bakken Shale and Three Forks formation.
The company reported that its natural gas gathering system in this region alone includes more than 6,500 miles. This is approximately 35% of its total gathering pipelines.
Also, the company added that ONEOK Partners’ systems serve approximately three million acres, or 60%, of the five million available acres of natural gas production. Plus, approximately half of producers’ rigs currently operating in the Williston Basin are drilling on acreage dedicated to ONEOK. This would make OKS’s assets crucial to producers in the region.
Major producers operating in this region include Continental Resources, EOG Resources, and Kodiak Oil & Gas. All of these companies are components of the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund.
Segment 10 of the 15-part series is on "ethane rejection," which is another "must-read" for those following the NG story in the Bakken. In addition, the site takes you to a link devoted entirely to "ethane rejection."

I track the North Dakota ONEOK natural gas processing plants in North Dakota at this post.

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