Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Nothing New -- Hearing This For Past Year -- Global Crude Oil Supplies Will Tighten

Link here.
The US Energy Information Administration anticipates that global crude oil markets will tighten over the next 2 years as annual consumption grows by an average 1.5 million b/d and growth in supplies outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increases less than 100,000 b/d yearly, EIA said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. 
To summarize:
  • Consumption grows by 1.5 million bopd
  • Supplies grow by less than 100,000 bopd
  • OPEC needs to increase production by 1.4 million bopd
EIA expects the market will rely on both inventories and significant increases in production of crude oil and non-crude liquids in OPEC member countries to meet world demand growth.

OPEC produces about 28 million bopd (has varied from 24 to 28 million bopd over the past few years)

Two comments: 
  • Inventories: okay; that's not more oil, folks, just what's already there.
  • Production increases: there are folks who argue that OPEC has maxed out production 
Two more comments:
  • Any "significant increase" in OPEC production will be offset by moratoria in US drilling (unless something significant changes within the Department of Interior; I'm not holding my breath)
  • OPEC can increase production at the wellhead, but the infrastructure is not there to deliver oil to the US
Last comment:
 

3 comments:

  1. hell no! your not nuts your just stating facts for people to see,I thank you for all your hard work, wish our govt would think like you,, again I thank you

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  2. Thank you for your kind comments.

    I really think infrastructure support around the world is the under-reported story. It was the knowledge of the Bakken that took me down that road.

    With regard to infrastructure support, I include political unrest. There are any number of examples where oil may be abundant, but due to political uncertainties, it can't be reached. Uganda is today's example, which one can find by googling; I chose not to post -- I don't want to stray too far from the Bakken.

    Anyway, thank you for your support.

    ReplyDelete
  3. your welcome,,, keep up the good work

    ReplyDelete

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