The US Energy Information Administration anticipates that global crude oil markets will tighten over the next 2 years as annual consumption grows by an average 1.5 million b/d and growth in supplies outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increases less than 100,000 b/d yearly, EIA said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.To summarize:
- Consumption grows by 1.5 million bopd
- Supplies grow by less than 100,000 bopd
- OPEC needs to increase production by 1.4 million bopd
OPEC produces about 28 million bopd (has varied from 24 to 28 million bopd over the past few years)
Two comments:
- Inventories: okay; that's not more oil, folks, just what's already there.
- Production increases: there are folks who argue that OPEC has maxed out production
- Any "significant increase" in OPEC production will be offset by moratoria in US drilling (unless something significant changes within the Department of Interior; I'm not holding my breath)
- OPEC can increase production at the wellhead, but the infrastructure is not there to deliver oil to the US
- Most folks think I'm nuts with regard to previous comment. That's fine. If I have time, I will try to find a link to support my view.
- This is not the link I was looking for, but it will do for now. And it's very current: December 20, 2010.
- This author says worldwide oil production will hit a ceiling at 74 million bopd, the record set back in 2008, and which we closing in on once again
