Updates
July 26, 2012: some data points that were not mentioned below in the original post, or the first update, from the Dickinson Press --
- the cited Bentek Energy study was commissioned by the NDIC
- in the past, the 30-second sound bite: $3 - $4 billion to develop the Bakken natural gas program; now, that number has been raised to as much as $15 billion (huge new data point)
- the study looked at only the Bakken and Three Forks wells in North Dakota and eastern Montana
- currently: the area studied -- 736 million cubic feet/day; projection -- 3.1 billion cubic feet/day (so, for round numbers, from 3/4 billion to 3 billion)
- unlike oil, natural gas can only be transported by pipeline
- huge potential for value-added industries: fertilizer, petrochemical and natural gas-fired electrical generation
- reminder: natural gas liquids higher economic value than dry natural gas now, but now as valuable as oil
Justin Kringstad, director of the pipeline authority, said the study — the first to assess the long-range potential for natural gas in the state — shows that gas will represent an increasingly larger share of the output of wells, which are being drilled primarily for oil.I would be curious to see if others agree: that as the Bakken wells age, the ratio of natural gas to oil will increase.
“It shows that the ratio of natural gas to oil will continue to increase as the wells age,” he said.
The writer makes a point (and there is a photograph to send the point home in case anyone missed it) that natural gas is being flared (see below) in the Williston Basin. Yes, natural gas is being flared, but the issue is a McGuffin. See below. The data point that should be followed is not how much natural gas is being flared but how long it takes to get an average well hooked up to a natural gas pipeline as the Bakken boom matures.
Obviously if only one well was drilled/month across the entire state of North Dakota, not much natural gas would be flared. But with 200 new wells/month, yes, a "lot" of natural gas will be flared. It's my impression, and I could be wrong, that the companies are getting their wells on pipelines more quickly that two years ago.
I do have to chuckle. Investors are looking at a new natural gas boom in North Dakota; faux environmentalists are looking at a McGuffin.
A huge "thank you" to the reader for sending the StarTribune link: if that is accurate -- that a natural gas boom is pending in North Dakota -- that's huge.
Original Post
Bentek Energy, LLC, website.
For newbies, the Bakken is currently producing about 640,000 barrels of oil per day plus natural gas. It is an oil field, and natural gas is, for the most part, a by-product of producing oil. Folks consider the Bakken an unconventional oil field, not a natural gas field.
On slide 13 of the NDIC presentation dated May 25, 2012, the NDIC provides three data points: proven, probable, and possible. In 2025:
- proven: 600,000 bopd
- probable: 800,000 bopd
- possible: 1,100,000 bopd
The writer provides a throw-away link in the linked article above regarding "wasting" natural gas. As I've noted many, many times, the flaring of natural gas in the Bakken is not unanticipated, and reporting it as an issue to be resolved is a McGuffin. The regulators are doing the right thing by saying they are working on it, but in fact, the free market system / oil and gas industry will resolve this non-issue.
