Tuesday, December 20, 2016

Investment In America

Over at "The Big Stories" I've added a new block: The Trump Years. One of the big stories coming out of the Trump years is likely to be "Investment In America." We'll see.

But there seems to be some major tectonic changes that may be "favoring" the United States. Again, we'll see.

China: some years ago, "everyone" thought the Chinese were going to "take over" America. China had lots of cash and were seen to buying up lots of US energy assets. Right now, China is in significant economic difficulty. Trump's focus on bringing manufacturing jobs back to America could put more pressure on China. Rising Fed rates are said to make things more difficult for China. Energy: China's oil production is declining.

Japan: stagnant economy for as long as I can remember. SoftBank comes along; commits to investment in the US. One has to ask why?

The Mideast: huge changes. Saudi Arabia in an existential panic. Iran rising. Iraq? Who knows? But Kurdistan, the Sunni Caliphate, Iraq, Turkey, Russia, Syria, northern Iran all in one cauldron. Obama created the vacuum. Trump says he doesn't want to get involved. We'll see. But if the US doesn't get involved, Russia fills the vacuum and becomes the BMOC. It appears that the princes in Saudi Arabia have to look outside the kingdom for investment opportunities to offset the new reality.

The EU and Brexit: big investors out of Japan, Mexico (Slim), US, Mideast -- where would they look to invest? EU and Brexit puts the UK and Europe in huge uncertain flux. And that's on top of the fact that Europe is likely to be the only continent in the world to depend on imported energy.

When I put all this together: entrepreneurial spirit; financial capital; technology; stability; the challenges in Europe, China, and the Mideast, one can only think that this is an incredible point in America's history ... and then we have a huge change in political direction and/or political focus.

All this leads to the first sub-section under the Trump years over at the big stories: investment in America.

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Updates

#TrumpJobs.

SoftBank.


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