Monday, March 9, 2020

Italy Reports Almost 2,000 New Cases In 24 Hours -- March 9, 2020


Wow. The Italy numbers have been posted.

In the daily note earlier this morning I posted:
Italy: pending; the country usually reports late in the day; I'm betting at least 1,500 new cases if they're honest.
So, quick! How many new cases did Italy report for today, March 9, 2020?

A whopping -- are you sitting down -- 1,797 new cases -- by the way, we now have the explanation for Italy's high number of cases. The answer was provided at 12:30 p.m. Central Time today.

Anyway, the Italian numbers today, March 9, 2020:
  • new cases: a whopping 1,797
  • new deaths: 97
  • fatality rate: 463 / 9,172 = 5%; pretty much unchanged; 
Observations that should scare the heck out of Italy, the EU, Switzerland, and France:
  • 1,797 new cases in Italy -- just the new cases in one day -- exceeds the total number of cases in every country of the world, except China
  • 1,797 new cases in Italy is 40-fold greater than the number of new cases in China;
  • China has this thing under control; whether it stays that way or not is another question;
  • there were 199 new deaths total, around the world
    • at 97 new deaths, Italy accounted for almost 50% of all new deaths
The overall data points are going to look really, really bad when those results are posted later tonight.


A Parthian shot: my hunch this morning that Italy would report at least 1,500 new cases today was right on target. Whoo-hoo!

By the way, we now have that case study. Re-posting:
Case study: some time ago I mentioned that the Diamond Princess cruise ship would be a great case study. We now have that case study, over at Ice Age Now. It's a must-read article:
  • case fatality rate: 0.85 percent (of the 705 that tested positive, six died)
  • but look at this: of the 3,711 confined to tight quarters, six died, which converts to 0.25
  • transmission in that setting was incredibly low (or they stopped it pretty quickly through quarantines)
  • the article does not say if all have been tested, or only those symptomatic; there is such a thing as asymptomatic carriers in all (?) infectious disease outbreaks;
  • finally, not a single Diamond Princess patient under the age of 70 has died;

3 comments:

  1. Why do I believe this link??? Yahoo? Well, maybe they finally got something right! https://news.yahoo.com/almost-200-north-korean-soldiers-193704254.html

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    Replies
    1. Have to agree. I guess the tipping point was reached: too many people asking about North Korea, someone finally had to post something. It's not like the story is ever going to be fact-checked ... except perhaps by Snopes or the NYT editorial board -- the one that fact checked $153 million to each American -- the Bloomberg campaign....

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  2. They all need to consult the Brits! https://www.facebook.com/milt.mittelstedt/videos/2620494791518850/?t=51

    ReplyDelete

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