Wednesday, January 2, 2019

Random Data Points For The Bakken -- January 2, 2019

Disclaimer: this was done quickly. There will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. My data will differ from the official NDIC data for various reasons, but it will be fairly close to what the NDIC is reporting.

Number of wells coming off confidential list by quarter:

4Q18
228
3Q18
190
2Q18
265
1Q18
242
4Q17
200
3Q17
177
2Q17
177
1Q17
140
4Q16
117
3Q16
99
2Q16
252
1Q16
281
4Q15
297
3Q15
379
2Q15
519
1Q15
675
4Q14
609
3Q14
522

This is what the Bakken looks like to me right now (end of 2018), some data points:
  • about 250 wells come off the confidential list each quarter (2018) -- compare to 600 back in 2014
  • about 2,000 permits each calendar year (I'll check that later)
  • about 1,000 wells completed each year (2018)
  • about 2,000 non-producing wells sit idle (wells that have been drilled to depth; 1,000 not fracked; 1,000 producers but have come off line for operational reasons)
  • about three wells come off the confidential list each day: two DUCs; one completed
  • companies taking advantage of 2-year confidential period/completion deadline
  • standard well, unchanged: two miles down; two miles horizontal lateral
  • targets of choice: middle Bakken and Three Forks first bench (ratio: 5:1)
  • EUR, tier 1: 1.5 million bbls crude oil; about 85% crude oil; 15% natural gas
  • production, first year: 100K and trending toward 250K bbls crude oil in tier 1
  • fracking standard: 50 stages; 8 - 10 million lbs sand; most operators not using ceramic
  • TF1 requires slightly less sand than MB
  • drilling unit, standard: 1280 acres
  • talk of longer horizontals, but I don't see that happening (some exceptions)
  • larger drilling units are being seen but only to "mop up" up "stranded/orphaned" oil
  • an increase in the number of increased density projects seen and some density projects are staggering; for example, Petro-Shale, case #27023, Bear Den-Bakken, 11 wells on an existing 640-acre unit, 25-149-96; McKenzie -- just one example of many
  • huge dollar investment in NG pipeline and processing plants forecast; I think I saw a $3 billion figure for NG investment in CY 2019 and this is on top of huge investment in prior years
  • Legacy Fund deposits around $50 million/month; can be quite variable
The blog:


Re-posting:

We've talked about this before. I don't plan to re-open the discussion; it is what it is. Here's the link. Here's the graph:




2 comments:

  1. The efficiency graph shows improvement better than I had assumed. Thanks for sharing, its data like this that helps me make AFE decisions that are due. The price isn't in a fantastic spot, but I have to update my models to perhaps expect nearly double the initial production than four years ago. From daily experience I know the IP's are going up significantly, but it's great to see an aggregate number.

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    Replies
    1. Thank you. I think the production increases in the last few years have been simply incredible.

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