Random Data Points For The Bakken -- January 2, 2019

Disclaimer: this was done quickly. There will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. My data will differ from the official NDIC data for various reasons, but it will be fairly close to what the NDIC is reporting.

Number of wells coming off confidential list by quarter:

4Q18	228
3Q18	190
2Q18	265
1Q18	242
4Q17	200
3Q17	177
2Q17	177
1Q17	140
4Q16	117
3Q16	99
2Q16	252
1Q16	281
4Q15	297
3Q15	379
2Q15	519
1Q15	675
4Q14	609
3Q14	522

This is what the Bakken looks like to me right now (end of 2018), some data points:

• about 250 wells come off the confidential list each quarter (2018) -- compare to 600 back in 2014
• about 2,000 permits each calendar year (I'll check that later)
• about 1,000 wells completed each year (2018)
• about 2,000 non-producing wells sit idle (wells that have been drilled to depth; 1,000 not fracked; 1,000 producers but have come off line for operational reasons)
• about three wells come off the confidential list each day: two DUCs; one completed
• companies taking advantage of 2-year confidential period/completion deadline
• standard well, unchanged: two miles down; two miles horizontal lateral
• targets of choice: middle Bakken and Three Forks first bench (ratio: 5:1)
• EUR, tier 1: 1.5 million bbls crude oil; about 85% crude oil; 15% natural gas
• production, first year: 100K and trending toward 250K bbls crude oil in tier 1
• fracking standard: 50 stages; 8 - 10 million lbs sand; most operators not using ceramic
• TF1 requires slightly less sand than MB
• drilling unit, standard: 1280 acres
• talk of longer horizontals, but I don't see that happening (some exceptions)
• larger drilling units are being seen but only to "mop up" up "stranded/orphaned" oil
• an increase in the number of increased density projects seen and some density projects are staggering; for example, Petro-Shale, case #27023, Bear Den-Bakken, 11 wells on an existing 640-acre unit, 25-149-96; McKenzie -- just one example of many
• huge dollar investment in NG pipeline and processing plants forecast; I think I saw a $3 billion figure for NG investment in CY 2019 and this is on top of huge investment in prior years
• Legacy Fund deposits around $50 million/month; can be quite variable

The blog:

Re-posting:

We've talked about this before. I don't plan to re-open the discussion; it is what it is. Here's the link. Here's the graph: