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Friday, July 31, 2020

Week 31: July 26, 2020 -- August 1, 2020

Top  story of the week:
Top energy story of the week:
The week's best graphic:
Most under-reported stories of the week:
Most under-reported energy story:
Top international non-energy story:
Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:
Top ND non-energy story:
Top ND energy story:
Geoff Simon's top ND stories:
  • ND Supreme Court upholds lakebed law.
  • Another oil pipeline ordered to shut down in North Dakota
  • ND high court sides with state over minerals law
  • DAPL appeals underway
  • First new full-scale US oil refinery since 1977 targets Bakken crude oil: Forbes
  • Frack sand from Mercer and McHenry counties saves oil companies big money
  • Trump allows Keystone pipeline to ship more Canadian oil after expansion stalls;
Operators:
Operations:

Fracking:
Refinery:
Halo effect:
Commentary:

XTO With Four New Permits -- July 31, 2020

Active rigs;

$40.277/31/202007/31/201907/31/201807/31/201707/31/2016
Active Rigs1258636135

Four new permits, #37766 - #37769, inclusive --
  • Operator: XTO
  • Field: Alkali Creek (Williams County)
  • Comments:
    • XTO has permits for a four-well HBU Bjarne Federal / Bjarne Federal pad in SWSE 13-154-94, in Alkali Creek (one permits) and Hofflund oil field (three permits)
      • 37766, conf, XTO, Bjarne Federal 34X-13HXE, 773' FSL 2221; FEL; Alkali Creek)
      • 37767, conf, XTO, HBU Bjarne Federal 34X-13HD, 736' FSL 2268' FEL; (Hofflund)
      • 37768, conf, XTO, HBU Bjarne Federal 34X-13HH2, 717' FSL 2292' FEL; (Hofflund)
      • 37769, conf, XTO, HBU Bjarne Federal 34X-13C, 699' FSL 2315' FEL; (Hofflund)
One permit canceled:
  • EOG: Hawkeye 169-1324H, in McKenzie County
Four permits renewed:
  • Resource Energy Can-Am: a Lincoln State permit in Divide County;
  • Prima Exploration: one State permit in Divide County
  • MRO: a Jan permit in Mountrail County
  • XTO: a Michael State Federal permit in Williams County;

This Is Not Just Goldilocks! This Is Goldilocks On Steroids -- AAPL Now Trading At $421 -- July 31, 2020


Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

I just checked in on AAPL. Oh. My. Goodness. Now trading up $27/share, when it normally moves a dollar or two up or down on a daily basis.

I initially thought this was a Goldilocks story, but this is Goldilocks on steroids.

Think about it.

This was "Covid Quarter."

Analysts across the board were "concerned" about AAPL. The day before Apple reported earnings, Jim Cramer, when asked the leading question, agreed that there was reason to be worried. Cramer had no idea what to expect with regard to Apple's earnings. He was 100% sure it was not going to be a huge surprise on the upside. No one expected a surprise on the upside but some were actually concerned with a surprise on the downside (I was in that group).

Apple is usually very conservative, very cautious with their guidance.

In all the years I've followed Apple I've never seen headlines like this. And then on top of that, out of the blue, an announcement to split the stock, 4 - 1.

By the way, I got a kick out of that. The CNBC Fast Money crowd quickly jumped on that, reminding the uninformed that a split does not increase/decrease/change the value of the stock, all other things being equal. They could not understand the reason for the split. LOL. They don't understand human behavior. And they don't seem to realize this "argument" about the value of a split has been going on for years.

Human nature? If people like something, they generally like more of something.

If one likes their hundred shares of AAPL, one will absolutely love having four hundred shares. I can't explain it but it's true.

But I digress.

This was "Covid Quarter."

Their stores were closed.

No new products were introduced. At least none that I can recall or none that really make a difference.

The analysts are all excited about the new iPhone. But, wow, this worked out well. Coming off a huge quarter, Apple announced that the new iPhone will be delayed. Perfect. So will school openings.

I think there was a huge number of folks who upgraded their computers when they were told to work from home.

If so, it sounds like it didn't move the needle. Of it did, neither the company nor the analysts are telling us.

But this fall, starting in August, high school students and college students are going to be getting new computers or upgrading older computers when they return to school ... online.

From the quarterly earnings report, as Bloomberg reported it, Goldilocks on steroids:
  • fiscal third-quarter revenue set a record for the June period
  • fiscal third-quarter revenue: $59.7 billion; if I recall  -- ah, here it is ... from an earlier post --
Morgan Stanley-- Apple to outperform 2Q20 estimates; forecast revenue and EPS of $55.1 billion and $2.18 EPS;  posted July 26, 2020; Apple to report after market closes on July 31; on July 24, CNN reported earnings and sales forecast for AAPL: EPS, $2.03; sales, $51.9 billion;
So, Morgan Stanley estimated revenue of $55.1 billion vs an actual figure of almost $60 billion.

Goldilocks on steroids. According to Bloomberg, earnings were up 11% from a year ago, and "smashed" analysts' estimates of $52.3 billion. Wow, it sure did.

Ah, here it is, in the linked Bloomberg article:
The pandemic is keeping people at home, which has spurred demand for Apple devices to help millions of consumers use the internet to keep in touch with friends, family and co-workers.
The pandemic likely boosted iPad and Mac sales due to lockdown rules and an increase in remote learning, while Apple store closures are weighing on iPhone sales, the CEO said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
And I think it's going to snowball this autumn as high school and college students go back to school.

"Hey, dad, since you don't have to pay for room and board this year, how about a new computer? And an iPad. And Beats headphones."

Other earnings numbers. Go through these slowly -- line by line -- every line item improved and improved significantly:
  • revenue from the iPhone: $25.4 billion; forecast: $21.3 billion
  • iPad: $6.6 billion, a strong increase from $5 billion a year ago
  • the Mac: another big jump; $7.1 billion, up from $5.8 billion a year ago
  • subscriptions: $13.2 billion; up from $11.5 billion a year ago
  • 550 million paid subscriptions; on track to reach 600 million by year-end
  • wearables: $6.5 billion vs expectations of $6.1 billion
I just checked: AAPL now up over 8%; up over $31 / share; now trading at $416/share.

**************************
Ten Reasons To Buy AAPL Immediately

Link here.

The analyst reiterated his Buy rating on Apple’s stock and moved his price target up to $420 from $410.

Memo to analyst: AAPL is now trading at $421. 

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- July 29, 2020

From the other day while I was traveling, the weekly EIA petroleum report that was released earlier this week, August 29, 2020:

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here:
  • US crude oil in storage: 526.0 million bbls; 17% above the five-year average;
  • US crude oil in storage decreased by a whopping 10.6 million bbls from the previous week
  • refineries operating at 79.5% operable capacity; has no appreciable effect on price of oil;
  • distillate fuel production increased last week, average 4.8 million bbls per day
  • distillate fuel inventories increased slightly (0.5 million bbls) and are about 26% above the five-year average, and well above the  summer average when stocks are usually at their lowest;
  • jet fuel supplied was down 42.1% compared with same four-week period last year 
 Re-balancing:
Week
Date of Report=
Change
Million Bbls Storage

Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9

Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5

Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2

Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0

Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5

Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4

Week 76
May 20, 2020
-5.0
526.5

Week 77
May 28, 2020
7.9
534.4

Week 78
June 3, 2020
-2.1
532.3

Week 79
June 10, 2020
5.7
538.1

Week 80
June 17, 2020
1.2
539.3
15%
Week 81
June 24, 2020
1.4
540.7
16%
Week 82
July 1, 2020
-7.2
533.5
15%
Week 83
July 8, 2020
5.7
539.2
18%
Week 84
July 15, 2020
-7.5
531.7
17%
Week 85
July 22, 2020
4.9
536.6
19%
Week 86
July 29, 2020
-10.6
526.0
17%

Crude oil imports:
Crude Oil Imports




Week (week-over-week)
Date of Report
Raw Data, millions of bbls
Change (millions of bbls)
Four-week period comparison
Week 0
March 11, 2029
6.4
0.174

Week 1
March 18, 2020
6.5
0.127

Week 2
March 25, 2020
6.1
-0.422

Week 3
April 1, 2020
6.0
-0.070

Week 4
April 8, 2020
5.9
-0.173

Week 5
April 15, 2020
5.7
-0.194

Week 6
April 22, 2020
5.6
-0.700

Week 7
April 29, 2020
5.3
0.365
-19.700%
Week 8
May 6, 2020
5.7
0.410

Week 9
May 13, 2020
5.4
-0.321
-26.100%
Week 10
May 20, 2020
5.2
-0.194

Week 11
May 28, 2020
7.2
2.000
-16.400%
Week 12
June 3, 2020
6.2
-1.000
-18.300%
Week 13
June 10, 2020
6.4
0.000
-13.300%
Week 14
June 17, 2020
6.6
-0.222
-10.000%
Week 15
June 24, 2020
6.5
-0.102
-11.600%
Week 16
July 1, 2020
6.5
-0.600
-11.300%
Week 17
July 8, 2020
7.4
1.400
-8.500%
Week 18
July 15, 2020
7.5
-1.800
-10.200%
Week 19
July 22, 2020
5.9
0.373
-13.500%
Week 20
July 29, 2020
5.1
-0.800
-13.600%


Jet fuel delivered:
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week


Week
Date of Report
Change
Week 0
3/7/2020
-12.80%
Week 1
3/14/2020
-12.60%
Week 2
3/21/2020
-8.90%
Week 3
3/28/2020
-16.40%
Week 4
4/4/2020
-0.22%
Week 5
4/11/2020
-39.70%
Week 6
4/18/2020
-53.60%
Week 7
4/24/2020
-61.60%
Week 8
5/1/2020
-66.60%
Week 9
5/8/2020
-68.50%
Week 10
5/15/2020
-67.90%
Week 11
May 22, 2020
-66.60%
Week 12
June 3, 2020
-68.70%
Week 13
June 10, 2020
-63.70%
Week 14
June 17, 2020
-62.30%
Week 15
June 24, 2020
-62.50%
Week 16
July 1, 2020
-60.00%
Week 17
July 8, 2020
-57.20%
Week 18
July 15, 2020
-51.90%
Week 19
July 22, 2020
-47.70%
Week 20
July 29, 2020
-42.10%