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Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Sixteen (16) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA; Some Huge Wells Being Reported; QEP With Four Huge Grail Wells; Statoil With Two Huge Wells

Active rigs: 182 (trending down)

Sixteen (16) new permits --
  • Operators: Hess (8), XTO (3), HRC (3), MRO (1), CLR (1)
  • Fields: Siverston (McKenzie), Blue Buttes (McKenzie),Ukraina (Billings), Antelope (McKenzie), Truax (Williams)
  • Comments: MRO has a permit for a wildcat in Slope County,
Wells coming off the confidential list were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Eight (8) producing wells were completed:
  • 25064, 111, Zargon, Zargon Mackobee Coulee 2HZ 2-16-158-85, Mackobee Coulee, a Madison well; t8/13; cum 5K 8/13;
  • 25104, 620, Whiting, Rohde Federal 14-6TFX, Sanish, t9/13; cum --
  • 24468, 3,863, Statoil, Viking 16-15 1H, Poe, t9/13; cum --
  • 24088, 2,762, Statoil, Sax 25-36 6TFH, Banks, t9/13; cum --
  • 24947, 2,586, QEP, Lawlar 2-5-8BH, Grail, t9/13; cum --
  • 24946, 1,823, QEP, Lawlar 1-5-8BH, Grail, t9/13; cum --
  • 24948, 2,638, QEP, Lawlar 1-29-32BH, Grail, t9/13; cum --
  • 24949, 2,274, QEP, Lawlar 2-29-32BH, Grail, t9/13; cum --
Wells coming off the confidential list Wednesday:
  • 22492, 1,368, Petro-Hunt, Jonsrud 151-96-3A-10-5H, Clear Creek, t9/13; cum -- 
  • 23783, drl, CLR, Brandvik 4-24H1, Corral Creek, no production data,
  • 23901, 628, Zavanna, Young 31-30 1H, Foreman Butte, t8/13; cum 18K 8/13;
  • 25096, 250, Hunt, Alexandria 1-26-35H, Alexandria, t7/13; cum 8K 8/13;

A Random Note From SeekingAlpha

This arrived in my mailbox earlier, with some minor editing, from SeekingAlpha:
  • North Dakota’s Bakken and south Texas’ Eagle Ford shale formations were responsible for 75% of oil production growth over the past month, and west Texas’ Permian remains the biggest overall oil producer, according to a first-of-its-kind EIA report released Tuesday.
  • The Marcellus formation, which straddles Pennsylvania, West Virginia and New York, accounted for 75% of natural gas' production growth, the report said.
  • Top Bakken producers in the Bakken include Oasis Petroleum and Continental Resources; in the Eagle Ford, EOG Resources and Chesapeake are among the top producers, while Diamondback Energy is a top asset holder in the Permian.
  • Cabot Oil & Gas is among the largest producers in the Marcellus formation.
The big story: "Top Bakken producers in the Bakken include Oasis Petroleum and Continental Resources."

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or anything you think you might have read here.

Around The Horn

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. 

30-second sound bite: oil has dropped below $100 putting pressure on oil and gas industry, but KOG's huge production report buoys the Bakken operators.


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KOG surges over 5%; trading above $14, and a new high. Huge production report, posted earlier; scroll down.

HK up a bit bit.

Oasis is trading up 1.5%.

WLL is up slightly. Still about $2 below 52-week high.

CLR is up slightly; pulled back from recent high yesterday.

CVX, COP, XOM: the first two down slight; XOM up slightly.

EOG is up over 1.5%; on a tear. At a new high. Big story in Bloomberg yesterday on Eagle Ford.

CHK is down slightly.

SD is up 1.5%.

AMZG is now 23 cents above a great entry point.

TPLM is down slightly, after a great run; probably a bit of profit-taking.

UNP is in its trading range well below its 52-week high. Up slightly today.

I don't follow BNSF (BRK) much any more; BRK follows the market in general.

ENB, EEP are both in a trading range, well below their highs.

SRE: wow, wow, wow -- I haven't paid attention to SRE lately; it is now trading at a new high, well over $90.

TransCanada iss up slightly; well below its high.

SLB:  wow, wow, wow -- I haven't paid attention to SLB lately; it is now trading at a new high, well over $90, approaching $95.

Random Note On Conversation Overheard In Cyber Cafe In Williston, Heart Of The Bakken

Young male flying instructor giving ground instructions to young woman prior to going out for flight training.

For newbies: North Dakota is well known for its flying schools, particularly through UND. The trifecta: wide open skies, long driving distances and perfect weather for flying.

For Investors Only; Jobs Report "Significantly Worse Than Expected" -- CNBC

Eight companies announced dividend increases, many of them energy companies.

KOG is up almost 4% in pre-market trading based on production reports that the company more than doubled its production year-over-year.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. 

In a 13D filing out last night after the close, JANA Partners disclosed a 7.5% active stake in QEP. 

CNBC reports the jobs report is "significantly worse than expected" -- CNBCUnemployment rate drops to 7.2% from 7.3% but the jobs report was horrifying: the US added only 148,000 jobs in the reporting period. The report was delayed due to the so-called government shutdown so I don't know what period we are talking about. Again, the analysts were surprised. The dollar fell sharply on that news which will support the price of oil. This tepid jobs growth: don't worry about "tapering" any time soon. The gap between the "haves" and the "have-nots" will continue to widen under this administration.

Staggering -- Remember When "We" Thought 100,000 Bbls In One Year Was Impressive? How About 100K In Two Months In The Bakken?

NDIC File No: 24671    
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 6/4/2013     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: NWNW 11-152-91     Footages: 370 FNL 1250 FWL    
Current Operator: EOG RESOURCES, INC.
Current Well Name: VAN HOOK 30-1113H
Total Depth: 22139     Field: PARSHALL
Spud Date(s):  1/25/2013
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Comp: 6/4/2013     Status: F     Date: 6/8/2013     Spacing: ICO
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 127,951     Cum MCF Gas: 70300     Cum Water: 17889
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 6/8/2013     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 871     IP MCF: 759     IP Water: 349
Monthly Production Data

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2013314951649631625128648273541142
BAKKEN7-2013305287651530688128877245234209
BAKKEN6-2013192555925249475712775012690


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NDIC File No: 24672    
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 6/7/2013     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: NWNW 11-152-91     Footages: 320 FNL 1250 FWL   
Current Operator: EOG RESOURCES, INC.
Current Well Name: VAN HOOK 29-1113H
Total Depth: 20927     Field: PARSHALL
Spud Date(s):  1/22/2013
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Comp: 6/7/2013     Status: F     Date: 6/8/2013     Spacing: ICO
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 112,236     Cum MCF Gas: 69322     Cum Water: 23653
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 6/8/2013     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 720     IP MCF: 840     IP Water: 211
Monthly Production Data

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2013252766827588156541658215801661
BAKKEN7-2013315757457599416433639264767013
BAKKEN6-2013162699425423383519101019028

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On another note, I assume the mineral owners want these wells shut down because they continue to flare natural gas.

KOG's 3Q13 Sales And Production; More Than Doubles Production From One Year Ago

Press release here.

Data points:
  • average daily sales volume: 35,400 boepd
  • represents a 54% sequential quarterly increase (54% greater than previous quarter, 2Q13)
  • more than doubles last year's production: 123% increase over 3Q12, which was 15,900 boepd
  • seven rigs (1 in Dunn County; 3 in the Polar Project in southern Williams County; 1 each in the Smokey and Koala project areas in McKenzie County; and 1 rig in the Wildrose project in northern  Williams County)
  • continues to operate two full-time, 24/7 completion crews (although the second crew was released for about six weeks in September/October); the company plans to utilize the two crews throughout  the remainder of the year
  • plans to complete 21.5 net wells in 4Q13 (completed 24.5 net operated wells in 3Q13)
NOTE: year-over-year in the second quarter, KOG's production increased 88%. Year-over-year in the third quarter, KOG's production increased 123%. Not too shabby. Click here for source.

And We Ask Again: Will Great Britain Be Better Prepared This Year? British Drilling In The North Sea Is Down 35% This Year

Updates

January 29, 2015: Scotland bans fracking.

January 25, 2015: committee of "influential" MPs recommends banning fracking. The BBC is reporting:
An influential committee of MPs has called for a moratorium on fracking on the grounds that it could derail efforts to tackle climate change.
The government's drive for shale gas should be put on hold because it would lead to more reliance on fossil fuels, the Environmental Audit Committee said.
The cross-party committee also warned there were "huge uncertainties" about the environmental impact of fracking.
Ministers said shale gas development did not detract from cutting emissions.
In their report, the MPs said shale fracking was incompatible with UK carbon targets and could pose environmental and health risks.

September 4, 2014: England anticipating blackouts this winter.

May 18, 2013: the UK will run out of natural gas in three years
 
Original Post
See this earlier post.

A colder winter is predicted this year. The earth stopped warming 17 years ago and it is clear we have entered a new cooling cycle. And now this report from Reuters via Rigzone:
The number of wells drilled in the British North Sea fell by more than a third in the third quarter, potentially raising further concerns about the region's outlook after a downgrade to production forecasts earlier this year.
During the three months to Sept. 31, the summer period which is traditionally Britain's busiest for drilling, 11 exploration and appraisal wells were started, 35 percent lower than the same period last year, a survey by Deloitte Petroleum services said on Tuesday. The number of wells drilled in the third quarter was also 31 percent lower than in the second quarter of 2013. Britain's oil and gas production from the North Sea has fallen by about two thirds since 2000 and posted particularly steep falls of 14.5 percent last year and 18 percent in 2011.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out what this means for the natural gas industry. 

Tuesday

Active rigs: 183

RBN Energy: California natural gas demand in the state's post-nuclear era.
The June 2013 decision by Southern California Edison (SCE) to permanently shut down its San Onofre Nuclear Generation Station (SONGS)—the largest power generator in the region—got the attention of the natural gas industry, and for good reason.  Natural gas interests view gas-fired generation as the logical replacement for the now-gone 2,200 MW nuclear capacity, but many other forces are at work. In this two-part series we examine southern California’s electricity cunundrum, and how big a part natural gas is likely to play in keeping the lights and air conditioning on and the pool pumps pumping.
The two-unit, 2,200-MW SONGS facility for years was a linchpin in the region’s electric grid. A relatively low-cost, around-the-clock generator at a pivotal location, San Onofre provided critical voltage support—an electrical engineer’s way of saying it kept the grid on an even keel. Natural gas interests expect SONGS capacity to be replaced by gas fired generation. And gas will surely have a significant role in the electricity future of the Los Angeles Basin, San Diego, and California as a whole. But because of state policies and Federal rules, among other things, utilities and merchant power companies may well end up consuming less gas than they do now, and commercial and industrial firms may use more.
Rigzone is reporting: October 22, 2013: Ultra pays $650 million for 49,000 acres in the Uinta that currently has 38 producing wells, 4,000 bopd. $/acres = $13,265/acre. Ultra has been acquiring leasehold interest in  Pinedale since 1997 and is now the largest interest owner in the field.
The oil acquisition fits the company’s strategy of profitable growth with exceptional returns at oil prices well below $75 per barrel.
Rigzone is reporting: massive spending projected as industry develops US shale. This seems to be at variance with what Algore said recently, suggesting that so much money has poured into fossil fuel, we are looking at a "carbon bubble." The only bubble I see, is Algore's bubblehead.
Now that the land grab of U.S. shale oil and natural gas acreage has ended, the oil and gas industry faces a new question – how it will fund the commercialization of unconventional resources. Cash flow issues have already been seen among oil and gas companies seeking to develop shale, raising questions about financing and how companies will handle spending, according to a panel of industry experts at the Bloomberg Oil & Gas Conference Thursday in Houston.
The development of shale resources might prove the exception to the ability of companies to raise funds in capital markets, said Gray. Estimates of the amount of capital needed range from $2 trillion to $5 trillion, but the market capital of shale participants is less than $1 trillion. Companies currently are needing to go to capital markets for $40 to $50 billion a year of capital now and have been spending beyond cash flow, but some suggestions indicate that spending may double or triple. Fundamentally, the industry could face a $2 trillion gap in funding.
Keep 'em until spring: Reuters via Rigzone is reporting -- Dutch government asks sea law tribunal to release the Greenpeace pirates. Keep 'em until the spring. The spring of 2020.

Algore should be presenting an award later this year to the US oil and gas industry for reducing CO2 emissions by another 3.8% this year