Wow: What An Incredible Night On TCM -- A Night Of Dean Martin -- The King Of Cool -- November 26, 2021

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Note For The Grandchildren

The first movie: Ocean's 11:

• the casinos, south to north (correct?): the Flamingo, the Sands, the Desert Inn, the Riviera, the Sahara
• the Flamingo: opened December, 1946; still operating; link;
• the Sands: opened December, 1952,
• the Desert Inn: opened April, 1950; closed August, 2000;
• the Sahara: opened October, 1952; still operating;
• the Riviera: opened April, 1955; closed May, 2015;
• My wife and I first visited Las Vegas together on/about March 19, 1977
• we were married in Las Vegas
• so, in 1977, all those casinos would have still been operating ... as wells as all those chapels
• link here.

The second movie: Robin and the Seven Hoods

The third movie: Dean Martin: King Of Cool

• I saw this the other night, the premier showing, though re-televised about a week later
  
• premiered on TCM: Friday, November 19, 2021
• the documentary is "must-watch TV"

Truly amazing the "new" and original content on Hulu, Disney+, HBO, Netflix. Apple TV, Roku. Truly amazing. We "subscribe" to Hulu; our older daughter and Sophia subscribe to Disney+ and Netflix, but it looks like Disney+ -- in a heap of trouble -- is going to "bundle" this with Hulu for a ridiculously low price. I wouldn't care except that I'm eager to see "Loki" on Disney+. 

Week 47: November 20, 2021 -- November 27, 2021

Doofus of the week: "I don't have that number in front of me."

Top story of the year: flash crash -- orchestrated by WHO/China. Ends energy crisis in China.

Top story of the week:

• Brandon still president.
• Announces two-billion gallon release of crude oil from SPR. US SPR at 18-year low.
  
• Announces additional red tape, increased fees on US oil by 50%; accuses "Big Oil" of uncompetitive activity -- gives OPEC, a real cartel, a pass. LOL.
  
• Market crash.
• Oil crash.
• CCS in North Dakota's Mercer County; giant pipeline;
  

Top international non-energy story:

• WHO skips "XI"; moves to Omicrom for new Covid variant;

Top international energy story:

• Russia admits it's getting much more expensive to drill oil;
• Winter energy crisis unabated in Europe;
• COP to buy Hess out of Libya.
• Norway's crude oil demand does not decline despite huge EV penetration.

Top national non-energy story:

• New York governor declares "disaster emergency" over new variant, Omicrom;
• Samsung to build second "chip" plant in Texas; $17 billion;
• Brandon nominates Jay Powell for second term at the Fed.
• Apple announces acceleration of its autonomous vehicle program;

Top national energy story:

• SPR release: $5/bbl gift to Big Oil; decision backfires;
  
• Brandon continues to ask OPEC, Russia to increase crude oil production
• Appears to have forgotten he killed the Keystone XL

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

• Williston: top-growing micro-city in America.

Top North Dakota energy story:

• Update on Pipeline X.

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• Quick connects.

Operators:

• Oasis: RBN Energy update.
• Enerplus "Wild Kingdom" permits renewed.
• MRO reporting monster Wolf-Fox wells in Moccasin Creek.
• Ragnar Exploration LLC; looking to drill 23 wells;
• Grayson Mill looking to drill up to twenty wells out in the middle of nowhere;
• MRO looking to place sixteen wells on a standup 2560-acre unit;

Operations:

• Hess reporting wells with incredible halo effects.
• Foundation Energy to recomplete a number of vertical Bakken wells.

Wells:

• An old Oxy well trending toward 800K;
• A monster well keeps getting better and better;
• After fifteen years, a huge jump in production;
• WPX Young Bird wells coming in huge;

Fracking:

Pipelines:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Odds And Ends Around The Bakken -- November 26, 2021

Nine Point takes this well off line:

• 24546, IA/485, Nine Point Energy/Triangle Petroleum, Dwyer 150-101-35-26-1H, Rawson, t5/13; cum 42K 8/13; cum 184K 7/21; goes off line 7/21; neighboring wells on same pad are also being taken off line: #26231 and #26230;

Is EOG taking this well off line?

• 21406, 1,355, EOG, Liberty 25-0107H, Parshall, t4/13; cum 469K 10/20; cum 493K 9/21; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2021	11	807	722	840	1710	1589	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	3000	3000	2296	4953	4577	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	21	1736	1679	1653	2931	2682	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	28	1135	1168	1127	2344	2004	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	1671	1665	1379	3332	2956	0

This is a lousy well. Does CLR have something in mind for this well?

• 24935, 216, CLR, Tangsrud 7-1H3, Hayland, t10/13; cum 48K 9/19; cum 51K 9/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2021	7	154	197	1310	419	332	4
BAKKEN	8-2021	21	458	390	558	899	661	7
BAKKEN	7-2021	1	28	38	4	19	7	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	14	80	114	79	297	134	1
BAKKEN	5-2021	25	153	126	34	545	255	9
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	137	124	3	738	430	1

Coming off line for a reason? The well:

• 24981, 2,559, BR, CCU Four Aces 44-21TFH, Corral Creek, t11/13; cum 235K 9/19; cum 260K 92/1; 
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2021	2	96	95	214	95	71	23
BAKKEN	8-2021	3	88	156	62	95	94	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	1671	1646	1309	1610	1242	359
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	1675	1688	1329	1808	1607	192
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	1425	1393	1712	1490	1348	136

Hess Reporting Wells With Halo Effect? November 26, 2021

Updates

November 27, 2021: see comments. A reader cites a source saying these wells were re-fracked. I assumed they were; when the "jump" is this huge, it's "always" due to a re-frack.

Original Post

Alkali Creek is well known for wells with "halo effect," but this is unusual for Hess, reporting wells with "halo effect."

This well, huge increase in production:

• 23445, 1,127, Hess, EN-Pederson 154-94-0409H-5, Alkali Creek, t8/13; cum 35K 8/13; cum 300K 9/21; most recent sundry form back in 2019;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	24234	23973	16	1534	1269	265
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	34	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	27	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	4	129	212	73	314	314	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	1772	1755	829	2902	2902	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	17	1151	1126	457	1500	1500	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	21	982	1062	428	1813	1813	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	25	1491	1455	565	2110	2110	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	27	1601	1607	715	2524	2524	0

This well, too early to tell, but certainly looks nice.

• 23446, 1,164, Hess, EN-Pederson 154-94-0409H-4, Alkali Creek, t7/13; cum 260K 10/20; cum 276K 92/1; 6,916 bbls over 12 days extrapolates to 17K over thirty days -- compare to 1,500 bbls before it went off line:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2021	12	6916	6841	13441	37648	37573	75
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	39	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	30	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	6	147	196	0	475	475	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	1456	1449	219	3187	3187	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	1004	1053	409	2358	2358	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	1547	1516	452	3106	3106	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	24	1057	1053	328	2015	2015	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	25	1377	1347	391	2998	2998	0

Other wells on this six-well pad:

• 17099, taken off line 6/21; 355, Hess, EN-Pederson-154-94-0409H-1, Alkali Creek, t8/08; cum 189K 5/21;
• 23448, taken off line 6/21; 792, Hess, EN-Pederson-154-94-0409H-2, Alkali Creek, t1/13; cum 233K 5/21; also appears to have halo effect;
• 23447, taken off line 1/20; 829, Hess, EN-Pederson-154-94-0409H-3, Alkali Creek, t1/13; cum 225K 1/20; also appears to have halo effect; 4,393 bbls over 7 days, 9/21 extrapolates to 19K bbls over 30 days;
• 23444, PNC, Hess, EN-Pederson 154-94-0409H-6, Alkali Creek,

BR Remains Active In The Bakken -- Random Update Of The Cleo Wells -- November 26, 2021

Why is BR taking these wells off line? Because wells coming up from the south are being drilled:

BR taking this nice well off line, it goes inactive:

• 24993, 2,952, BR, Cleo 41-1TFH, Croff, t9/13; cum 87K 6/14; cum 330K 7/21;

BR taking this nice well off line, it goes inactive:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	88	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	21	763	833	342	2646	2577	2
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	1627	1586	758	5060	4953	16
BAKKEN	5-2021	27	1897	1900	836	4426	4319	23
BAKKEN	4-2021	24	1928	1923	658	3606	3531	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	2166	2172	918	3249	2418	733
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	2018	1949	886	2280	1563	621
BAKKEN	1-2021	11	862	810	628	947	696	214

24992, IA/2,736, BR, Cleo 41-1MBH, Cross, 2 sections; t9/13; cum 420K 10/20; went off line 6/21; cum 428K 9/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	107	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	23	1099	1128	241	1772	1676	27
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	2200	2114	707	4228	3467	664
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	809	785	688	3334	3240	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	21	491	465	951	847	688	93
BAKKEN	2-2021	0	0	4	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	6	65	224	48	168	148	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	1780	1789	861	2956	2853	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	1888	1858	420	2854	2746	13

The wells coming in from the south that are being drilled:
37073,
37074,
37075,
37076,
37077,

Really? It's That Bad? Voting For Biden Was An Open-Book Test -- November 26, 2021

Link to ISO NE.

Wow, they're reading the blog ... but we've been talking about this for years. Over at Fox Business:

On a Friday holiday, I assume in New England, where few actually showed up at work and all universities are closed for the Thanksgiving break, electricity prices are in the 5th decile in Maine (which I seldom see at the high end compared to Massachusetts), New Hampshire ("first to vote in the nation"), eastern Massachusetts (to include Boston). And it's not even winter yet, and as noted it's pretty much a holiday. 

Decile: scale of ten.

• 1 - 4: least expensive
• 5: not cheap
  
• 6: expensive
• 7-9: really expensive
• 10: Armageddon
  

I suppose all the malls have all their lights on and cash registers "on."  

Reported a couple of weeks ago: New England will be increasing their imports of crude oil from Russia this year. 

Back to the article:

BANGOR, Maine – Mainers, who heavily rely on home heating oil to survive the winter, told Fox News they're already being forced to make difficult decisions due to inflation.

"We nudge our thermostat down lower and lower during the day, trying to save some money there," 63-year-old Cindy Lavertu, of Bangor, said. "I've never worried before. I've never worried about getting supplies like right now. I've never stocked up before.

"I just know that I did not have these types of problems before President Biden took office," Lavertu continued. "I didn't have these concerns. I [attribute] it 100% to Washington, D.C."

Last week, the average cost of heating oil in Maine was $3.16 per gallon, up from $1.90 a year ago, according to the governor's office. The Energy Information Administration forecasts it will increase to almost $3.50 by next year.

Two thoughts come to mind:

• banning all those pipelines; and,
• voting for Biden was an open-book test.

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US Grant

Incredibly coincidental.

One of the few things about which I should know so much, I know so little: the US Civil War. I cannot explain it. I assume I had US History I in eighth grade and US History II in my junior year of high school, but I absolutely don't remember either course, or the instructors. Nothing. Nada. 

In eighth grade, I had the most wonderful literature teacher and I was probably more interested in literature than history. Of course, science and math were much more interesting.

In eleventh grade, my favorite (and as far as I was concerned, my only) subject was chemistry. I assume I was taking algebra II but I don't recall. But I certainly had no interest in history.

A few years ago, I suddenly had the urge to study the US Civil War after "discovering" US Grant's memoirs. 

And that's what I'm working on today in the "bat cave."

It's a coincidence because of this. I subscribe to only one hard copy of anything: The Claremont Review of Books. The essays on politics completely bore me but the book reviews are wonderful. The most recent issue that I received the day before Thanksgiving: "On and Off the Pedestal," Victor Davis Hanson, subscription required.

More on the essay elsewhere. 

However, a new legal term for me from the essay: nolle prosequi.

To dismiss, as in: "With the Big 3 giving in to the UAW on the matter of vaccinations, it's long beyond time to for Bandon to offer a nolle prosequi of his executive mandate. 

Not quite perfect, but it will help me remember the phrase and the definition.

Used in a sentence, "Based on overwhelming division this has caused the nation. the administration nol prosses the vaccine mandate." Link here. Also nol-pros. Link here.

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Brothers

Strolling around the house, hand-in-hand, the day after Thanksgiving:

Off To The "Bat Cave." More Blogging Later -- November 26, 2021

From Javier Blas:

It's a perfect cocktail: extreme fears about the new covid variant in one of the lowest liquidity days of the year, plus Brent breaking below key support (100-moving day average) and lots of negative gamma kicking in. And you have a flash crash.

From Twain's Mjustache: 

The selling in /CL seems a bit overdone...LOL.

From Stephen S:

• US LNG exports hit a record high.
• Natural gas pipeline flow to LNG export facilities rose to 12.3 bcf on Thursday, the highest ever.
• Flows to Sabine Pass jumped after Train 6 began producing LNG earlier this week

From NIck DuCate:

The media & politicians have done such a good job instilling fear in everyone that markets are ignoring the fact that Merck & Pfizer both have highly effective antivirals available now. Major cap-ex investments will be further delayed setting up higher prices next year & beyond.

This is like announcing a new pneumococcal bacterium and forgetting we have penicillin. LOL.

From Oil & Gas Journal:

EOG Resources plans its first move into Australia following acquisition of Western Australian Bonaparte Gulf permit WA-488-P containing the Beehive prospect from Melbana Energy. Direct to article.

This pretty much says it all, from Bismarck Tribune: 

a light day of testing on Thanksgiving led to only 174 new Covid-19 cases being confirmed in North Dakota, down from an average of 619 the previous three days. I don't think the writers / editor caught the irony. LOL. Link here. 

And finally:

What agency is warning folks about the new variant? WHO.

What country controls WHO? China.

What country is facing a huge energy crisis. Let's change that. What country was facing a huge energy crisis? LOL.

Okay, one more:

Look At The Map: Investors With A Long Time Horizon Are Going To Do Just Swell -- November 26, 2021

Connecting the dots: European governments losing control of the narrative last week with regard to Covid. Mass riots across the continent. What the governments needed was a "Nu" variant. LOL.

This, too, will pass. That SPR release came just in time. OPEC won't be raising production when they meet next week with oil crashing. 

Investors: those with a long term horizon ..... say, thirty days ... will do just fine.

WTI: plummets but natural gas up 3.6%. Look at the map: 

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Back to the Bakken

Over at Fox Business today: fracking powers Williston to fastest-growing micro area in America. 

Active rigs:

$68.54	11/26/2021	11/26/2020	11/26/2019	11/26/2018	11/26/2017
Active Rigs	23	14	57	62	53

No wells coming off the confidential list Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, or Saturday, November 24, 2021 - November 27, 2021.

RBN Energy: journey to decarbonization a tricky path for crude oil, natural gas and NGLs.

These are troubled times, as the song says, caught between confusion and pain. Following the COVID trauma of 2020, oil, gas, and NGL markets are now coping with uncertainty of medium- and long-term prospects in light of energy transition rhetoric. Will we continue to see sufficient investment in the hydrocarbon-based supplies that the world needs today, or will resources be increasingly diverted toward renewable energy technologies and wider ESG goals? Finding a way to satisfy the global appetite and fuel continued recovery while planning for the future was a core theme for RBN’s Fall 2021 School of Energy: Hydrocarbon Markets in a Decarbonizing World. In today’s advertorial RBN blog, we lay out some key findings and highlights from this fall’s virtual conference.

Daily activity report, end-of-day report: the only information -- five permits renewed:

• BR (4): two Tilton permits, one Lloyd Christmas permit, and one Scottvale permit, all in Dunn County;
• Slawson: a Challenger Federal permit in Mountrail County;