Week 42: October 11, 2020 -- October 17, 2020

Top story of the week:

• The Bakken is back; crude oil production up 12% month-over-month;

Top international non-energy story of the week:

• Chinese flu: UK, France in deep trouble;

Top international energy story of the week:

Top national non-energy story of the week:

• North Dakota on national radar: Covid-19 cases surging;
• US census counts come to an end; court sides with Trump;
• BLM championship finals viewership crashes; and, here;

Top national energy story of the week:

• DAPL expansion approved by Illinois;
• Conoco, Concho in talks;
• Big decline in US distillate inventories;

Top North Dakota non-energy story of the week:

• Intermodal shipping facility in Minot comes on line;
• North Dakota on track to be nation's number one sunflower producer;
• Covid-19: cases surge in Fargo, Bismarck;

Top North Dakota energy story of the week:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories of the week:

• ND passenger boardings far below normal; boardings less than half of last year;
• Davis Refinery (aka the Teddy Roosevelt Refinery) on-site work to resume in 2021; final legal hurdle cleared
• Enbridge completed 12-mile North Dakota stretch of Line 3;
• Dickinson public school enrollment numbers down; homeschool growing;
• Watford City's teachers/staff now required to wear masks;

Operators:

• Enerplus reports nice "National Park" wells; and, here, a gel-frack?

Operations:

Fracking:

• Enerplus reports record low use of water in frackings:

Bakken 101:

• Reader with question about mineral rights;

Bakken economy:

• Williston Square reaches new milestones;

Commentary:

• Fracking;

Director's Cut -- August, 2020, Data -- ND Crude Oil Production -- 12% Increase Month-Over-Month

Director's Cut has been released: link here. 

Crude oil production:

• August, 2020: 1,164,432 bopd (preliminary)
• July, 2020: 1,042,081 bopd (final)
• delta: 122,351 bopd
• percent increase: 11.74% month-over-month

Rig count:

• today: 16
  
• September: 11
• August: 12
• July: 11

Wells, permitted:

• September: 51
• August: 47
• July: 92

Wells, completed:

• August: 19 (preliminary)
• July: 59 (revised)
• June: 37 (final)

Wells, producing:

• August: 15,144 (preliminary)
• July: 14,416

Wells, inactive:

• August: 2,719
• July: 3,762

Wells, waiting on completions (DUCs):

• August: 846
• July: 878

DUCs and wells off-line for operational reasons are tracked here.

August, 2020:

• DUCs: 846
• inactive well count: 2,719
  
• total off line for operational reasons: 3,565

July, 2020:

• DUCs: 878
• inactive well count: 3,762
• total off line for operational reasons: 4,640
  

June, 2020:

• DUCs: 899
• inactive well count: 4,214
• total off line for operational reasons: 5,113

May, 2020:

• DUCs: 962
• inactive well count: 6,108
• total off line for operational reasons: 7,070

********************************
Difference In DUC Counts

May - August: 116
percent change: decreased by 12%

****************************
Difference In Wells Off-Line For Operational Reasons

May - August: 3,505
percent change: decreased by 50%

Fracking Update -- From A Reader -- October 16, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

A reader sent me this the other day, edited (any typographical errors below are mine, not the reader's):

Folks interested in the shale revolution might want to take a look at these two companies:

• NFE
• AR

The reader notes that these two companies have appreciated between 100% and ~75% in the past few months.

The reader also noted this:

• Energy Recovery (ERII) and its ties to the recent Liberty/Schlumberger 'merger' and the HUGE ramifications that may manifest starting in a few weeks' time ... certainly by next spring, if I am correct. 

The new pressure exchange cartridges that ER is ready to roll out (pictures of same now appear on their website) seem to be workable and to be introduced into the field by Liberty soon thereafter.

I'll not delve into all the wonky specifics, but all completion companies will shift to this hardware due to the big cost savings.

Likewise, as Liberty/Schlumberger continues to buildout new gas-fueled electric frac fleets, legacy operations such as Haliburton's will become obsolete overnight.

Across the unconventional upstream hydrocarbon world, the cost of fracturing wells is about to drop significantly.

This comes from a reader who does not invest in the stock market. The reader has no connections with the companies noted above. Like me, he is interested in the "science" of the shale revolution, to include advances in technology. This reader consistently and regularly provides incredible insight regarding the shale revolution. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Williston Expansion -- Williston Square -- October 16, 2020

The old Williston airport site, the-800-acre Sloulin Field International Airport site --> Sloulin redevelopment project --> Williston Square.

From KFYR last December (2019):

Dozens of new businesses have come into Williston this year, and 2020 is expected to be even busier due to redevelopment of the 800-acre Sloulin Field International Airport site, now known as the Williston Square. 

Plans for the area include a civic center, casual and fast food restaurants, more apartment buildings or single-family homes, and big-box retailers. 

Williston Economic Development says due to the old airport’s ideal location within town, interest from developers and investors is high, and moving a lot faster than anticipated.

This week several updates released.

Most importantly, the north-south road on the west of this development has been completed. There was a huge gap in 16th Avenue West due to the old airport, but now that avenue has been filled in, connecting 26th Street to the south with 42nd Street to the north. That's a big deal. 

In addition, it was announced that Pizza Ranch and Slim Chickens will be breaking ground at the new Williston Square in 2021.  

Notes From All Over -- Morning Edition -- October 16, 2020

Retail sales surge:

• picked up strongly in September, The WSJ;
• consumers show unexpected strength; retail sales up 1.9%; consensus: 0.7%, CNBC;
• shoppers came back, NPR

Social security: Dems must be listening to their constituents. Looks like US House wants to increase social security COLA from 1.3% to 3%.

Nobel Prize wrap: history, 1901 - 2020. 

Apple: Honda and Hyundai rolling out wireless CarPlay to select 2021 vehicles. 

Apple AirPods Pro: the #1 item sold on Amazon, earlier this week on Amazon Prime Days. 

Apple, screenshots from Amazon Prime days, earlier this week

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- October 16, 2020

OPEC basket, link here: $41.29.

*********************************************
Back to the Bakken

Director's Cut to be released later today: link here. 

Active rigs:

$40.41	10/16/2020	10/16/2019	10/16/2018	10/16/2017	10/16/2016
Active Rigs	16	60	69	58	31

No wells coming off the confidential list today.

RBN Energy: crude oil export volumes hold up despite a barrage of storms. 

Last week, Hurricane Delta became the latest of a string of hurricanes and tropical storms that have assaulted the Gulf Coast this year and disrupted energy production in the Gulf of Mexico — and energy exports. A number of major storms made direct hits or glancing blows to crude export centers like Corpus Christi, Houston, Beaumont, and Louisiana, forcing marine terminals to either slow down their carrier-loading operations or shut down for a few days at a time.

That led to a yo-yoing of weekly export volumes: way down one week, way up the next. Despite the short-term dislocations, however, total export volumes since the hurricane season started on June 1 are actually up slightly from the first five months of 2020, a testament to the resilience not only of the export market but to the marine terminals themselves. Today, we discuss how hurricanes and tropical storms have been affecting export-terminal activity.