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The Magic Numbers
Over the two years that I had been posting these updates, it had become clear/obvious that the figures were often suspect, if not outright falsified. On November 18, 2013, it was reported that, indeed, unemployment figures have been falsified.
NEWS
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The Magic Numbers
First time claims, unemployment benefits: 400,000 (> 400,000: economic stagnation)
New jobs: 200,000 (< 200,000 new jobs: economic stagnation)
Economists estimate the labor market needs to create about 125,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate steady, though estimates vary -- Reuters.I will stick with 200,000 (the "magic number" prior to the Obama administration) -- it's a nicer, "rounder" number to remember.
Over the two years that I had been posting these updates, it had become clear/obvious that the figures were often suspect, if not outright falsified. On November 18, 2013, it was reported that, indeed, unemployment figures have been falsified.
In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from Wall Street to Washington.Take the numbers for what they are worth, I guess. Not much. As so much else with ObamaNation.
The decline — from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent in September — might not have been all it seemed. The numbers, according to a reliable source, were manipulated.
And the Census Bureau, which does the unemployment survey, knew it.
January 15, 2015: huge, unexpected jump; rises by 19,000. The four-week average, a less volatile measure,
rose 6,750 to 298,000.
January 9, 2015: unemployment rate drops to 5.6%. Participation rate continues to drop.
January 8, 2015: Initial jobless claims fell 4,000 in the January 3 week to 294,000, helping to pull down the 4-week average slightly to 290,500.
December 25, 2014: Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased by 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 298,000 for the week ended December 27. That followed four straight weeks of declines. The four-week moving average of claims rose only 250 to 290,750 last week. It has remained below the 300,000 mark for 16 straight weeks.
December 18, 2014: unexpectedly fell 6,500 to 289,000. The four-week average, which is supposed to iron out week-to-week volatility slipped 750 to 298,750.
December 11, 2014: down 3,000 to 294,000 (which means last week's number was revised to a 15,000 decrease). Four-week average pretty much unchanged at 299,250 vs 299,000 the week before.
December 4, 2014: applications plunge 17,000, to 295,000. Four-week average increased to 299,000.
November 26, 2014: applications surge 21,000. At 313,000, the number was worse than expected by 26,000. The four-week average was said to have decreased, still under 300,000 but exact number not give in either of the two news reports I looked at.
November 20, 2014: applications drop 2,000; last week's numbers revised upward 3,000. Four-week average rises from 287,500 from 285,750. Mainstream media with huge spin this week.
November 13, 2014: applications surge 12,000 to 290,000. Reuters calls it simply a "pause." Four-week average also rose to 279,000.
October 30, 2014: applications rose 3,000 to 287,000. It appears last week's number was also revised up 1,000. That drop of 23,000 two weeks ago was an anomaly (unexplained, incredible, impossible, LOL-hilarious). Of course, because of that, the 4-week average continues to average down -- is this the last report before the election?
October 23, 2014: Was last week's incredible drop to 264,000 an anomaly? What was that all about? Today, the number is back up to 283,000 -- almost as if last week did not happen. Analysts had expected today's number to rise to 281,000. The four-week average fell to 281,000. Well, of course, it fell -- that, too will be an anomaly if ...
October 16, 2014: plunge; 14-year low. Decreased by 23,000 to 264,000; four-week: down to 283,500, lowest since June, 2000.
October 9, 2014: last week's number for first time unemployment claims was revised upward 1,000; this week the number is down a thousand, a wash, as they say. Four-week average, 287,750. Weekly number stands at 287,000.
October 3, 2014: September, 2014, unemployment rate - 5.9%. Employers added 284,000 jobs.
October 2, 2014: "Apparently" the number dropped 8000 to 287,000. Previous week's number were revised up 2,000, to 295,000. Four-week average, 294,750.
September 25, 2014: first time claims surge 12,000 to 293,000; four-week average falls to 298,500. Analysts see this as incredibly good news.
September 18, 2014: incredibly and unexpectedly, first time claims for unemployment benefits plunged to 280,000; the four-week average is at 299,500. It will be interesting to see next week's numbers. One swallow does not mark the arrival of spring.
September 11, 2014: horrendous; back up to 315,000 (expectations? a modest drop to 300,000). Four-week moving average: 304,000, up from August 28, 2014.
September 5, 2014: horrendous job report; perhaps worst so far in this "recovery."
September 4, 2014: new jobs at 212,000 (note the "magic number" above). First time claims rise unexpectedly to 302,000; four-week average down.
Several headline data points at Drudge today regarding jobs:
August 21, 2014: plummets 14,000 to 298,000. Four-week average rose 4,750 to 300,750.
August 7, 2014: plummet "unexpectedly." Economists forecast a rise to 305,000 (that would have been up 3,000); instead the numbers fell 14,000 to 289,000; the four-week average fell to lowest market since February, 2006: 293,500.
August 1, 2014: unemployment, five years into the recovery, headed in wrong direction; ticks up to 6.2% from 6.1%. That's why Ms Yellen is being very, very cautious.
July 31, 2014: dismal, dismal jobs number. Climbed to 302,000, slightly more than expectations. The market tanks.
July 24, 2014: first-time unemployment claims plummet to lowest number since February, 2006: down to 284,000. Last week's number revised upward, slightly, to 303,000. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, declined 7,250 to 302,000. This is a remarkable report: this is the lowest reading since February, 2006, almost two years before the Great Recession began.
July 17, 2014: Declines underway in jobless claim point squarely to improvement underway in the labor market. Initial claims fell 3,000 in the July 12 week to 302,000. The 4-week average is also down 3,000, to 309,000 which is a new recovery low
July 10, 2014: first time claims down 11,000; lower-than-expected, 304,000; continuing claims, in lagging data for the June 28 week, did rise 10,000 to 2.584 million but the 4-week average is at a new recovery low, down 8,000 to 2.571 million.
July 2, 2014: jobs surge, unemployment drops to 6.1. Long-term unemployed at lowest level since 2009. Last week, revised: 224,000. This week, 288,000. Note the "magic number" above: anything over 200,000 is wonderful.
June 26, 2014: Down 2,000 to 312,000. The number of people actually receiving benefits inched up by 12,000 to 2.57 million. But the small increase comes after the level fell to a six-year low in the previous week. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, rose 2,000 to 314,000.
June 19, 2014: weekly claims decrease 6,000 to 312,000. The four-week average declining to 311,750 from 315,000 the week before suggests the four-week average is an anomaly based on the May 29, 2014, data point.
June 13, 2014: weekly claims up 4,000. Four-week average surges to 315,250.
June 9, 2014: the AP admits the "new norm" may be higher than 5% unemployment.
June 7, 2014: although the media spun it as a good week, in fact the news was bleak. First time claims did not go up all that much, only 8,000, but the fact they increased at all when they should have decreased is bleak indeed. Worse, the number of new jobs added was in-line with expectations, but not particularly upbeat. So, for the record, first time claims for unemployment insurance rose 8,000. The number is back up to 312,000, about where it's been "forever." The four-week average dropped to 310,250. Meanwhile, the ADP reported 179,000 new jobs: this is the fewest new jobs created since January, 2014. This is the longest jobs recovery since the US started tracking such data in 1939.
May 29, 2014: seasonally adjusted -- drops an incredible 27,000 (way more than forecast) down to 300,000; lowest level since 2007. Four-week average down to 311,500. That's down almost 12,000. and they say the four-week average is less volatile. LOL.
May 22, 2014: surges 28,000 -- wipes out last week's rise of 24,000, almost double what analysts forecast. Back up to 326,000; 4-week average now at 322,250.
May 15, 2014: plunges 24,000; at seven-year low; to pre-recession levels; 4-week moving average drops 2,000 to 323,250.
May 8, 2014: first-time claims plunge 26,000 but four-week moving average actually increased, to a 324,750, a third straight gain.
May 2, 2014: unemployment plunges to 6.3%. An astounding 288,000 new jobs reported.
May 1, 2014: spikes 14,000; back up to 344,000, the highest level since February, 2014. Even the less-volatile four-week average rose by an astounding 3,000 to 320,000.
April 24, 2014: up an incredible 24,000; back up to 329,000. Four-week moving average up almost 5,000 to 316,750.
April 17, 2014: jobless claims rise much less than expected; up to 304,000. The initial claims seasonally adjusted 4-week moving average fell 4,750 to 312,000 in the April 12 week, which is the lowest since the October 6, 2007 week when the 4-week moving average was 302,000.
April 10, 2014: jobless claims drop significantly, down to 300,000. Four-week average also down significantly to 316,250.
April 5, 2014: remember, the magic number is 200,000. Bloomberg survey forecast 206,000. Actual number: 192,000. Tepid, tepid, tepid.
April 3, 2014: initial claims come in more than twice what was expected; now back up to 326,000. Reuters still sees strong job growth on the horizon. The four-week average rose to 319,500. This is a most interesting report this week; there seems to be a bit of smoke-and-mirrors reporting.
March 27, 2014: claims drop by an astounding 11,000, unexpected. Now down to 311,000; analysts expected 323,000. Four-week average is 317,750, the lowest since September 28, 2013.
March 13, 2014: claims drop to 3-month low, 315,000. Four-week average down to 330,500.
February 27, 2014: claims surge; up 14,000, to 348,000.
February 20, 2014: status quo; down 3,000. We're going to be here forever going forward -- 330,000 +/-. Four-week average 336,750.
February 13, 2014: bad report, again. Same spin. Analysts had expected number to decrease to 330,000 (from 331,000 last week); instead it rose an astonishing 8,000 to 339,000; the four-week average rose to 336,650.
February 7, 2014: horrendous report. By the way does anyone still believe the government's official unemployment rate -- job gain horrendous, more folks entering the labor force (now that extended unemployment benefits lapsed), and official unemployment rate is at its lowest since October, 2008?
February 6, 2014: 331,000.
February 5, 2014: new jobs, 175,000 in January, 2014. Lousy report. Anything less than 200,000 = economic stagnation. Note: this is the ADP number for new PRIVATE jobs; I believe the government figures for ALL new jobs comes out at the end of the week; analysts are expecting a number of 190,000 which is less than the magic number of 200,000.
January 30, 2014: a BAD, BAD, BAD report, surging first time claims, up 19,000 and the revised number next week will show a higher number. The four-week average "ironed-out," increasing only 750 to 330,000.
January 23, 2014: simply no traction. Ticks up to 326,000. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, fell for the third straight week to 331,500. Both figures are said to be close to pre-recession levels and suggest that companies are laying off few workers. [Laying off fewer workers does not equate to increase hiring.]
January 10, 2014: bad, bad report; worst since January, 2011 -- Americans leaving the work force in droves; applications drop 15,000 to 330,000 (weather not a factor). New jobs added were 76,000, worse in three years (weather a factor). Four-week unemployment average drops 9,750 to 349,000.
January 2, 2014: drop 2,000 to 339,000. The much less volatile, and therefore much more meaningful actually rose 8,500 to 357,250.
December 26, 2013: back to the early days of the 2007 - 2009 recession. Down 42,000 to 338,000. Four-week moving average increased to by 4,250 to 348,000.
Decmember 19, 2013: what fresh hell is this? Analysts forecast a healthy decline. In fact, claims surged 10,000 to 380,000. We saw 380,000 back in early 2012. The saga continues. Not much has changed.
December 12, 2013: first time claims surge 68,000! The monthly average of claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, increased to 328,750 from 322,750 the week before.
December 5, 2013: plunges to nearly a six-year low; drops 23,000 to 298,000. Four-week moving average, 322,250.
November 27, 2013: down 10,000 to 316,000; 4-day moving average down to 331,750.
November 20, 2013: recent jobs reports are a disappointment -- Bernanke.
November 14, 2013: down 2,000.
November 8, 2013: new jobs added exceeds expectations; exceeds magic number of 200,000. Happy days are here again. Occurred during the government shutdown.
January 9, 2015: unemployment rate drops to 5.6%. Participation rate continues to drop.
January 8, 2015: Initial jobless claims fell 4,000 in the January 3 week to 294,000, helping to pull down the 4-week average slightly to 290,500.
December 25, 2014: Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased by 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 298,000 for the week ended December 27. That followed four straight weeks of declines. The four-week moving average of claims rose only 250 to 290,750 last week. It has remained below the 300,000 mark for 16 straight weeks.
December 18, 2014: unexpectedly fell 6,500 to 289,000. The four-week average, which is supposed to iron out week-to-week volatility slipped 750 to 298,750.
December 11, 2014: down 3,000 to 294,000 (which means last week's number was revised to a 15,000 decrease). Four-week average pretty much unchanged at 299,250 vs 299,000 the week before.
December 4, 2014: applications plunge 17,000, to 295,000. Four-week average increased to 299,000.
November 26, 2014: applications surge 21,000. At 313,000, the number was worse than expected by 26,000. The four-week average was said to have decreased, still under 300,000 but exact number not give in either of the two news reports I looked at.
November 20, 2014: applications drop 2,000; last week's numbers revised upward 3,000. Four-week average rises from 287,500 from 285,750. Mainstream media with huge spin this week.
November 13, 2014: applications surge 12,000 to 290,000. Reuters calls it simply a "pause." Four-week average also rose to 279,000.
October 30, 2014: applications rose 3,000 to 287,000. It appears last week's number was also revised up 1,000. That drop of 23,000 two weeks ago was an anomaly (unexplained, incredible, impossible, LOL-hilarious). Of course, because of that, the 4-week average continues to average down -- is this the last report before the election?
October 23, 2014: Was last week's incredible drop to 264,000 an anomaly? What was that all about? Today, the number is back up to 283,000 -- almost as if last week did not happen. Analysts had expected today's number to rise to 281,000. The four-week average fell to 281,000. Well, of course, it fell -- that, too will be an anomaly if ...
October 16, 2014: plunge; 14-year low. Decreased by 23,000 to 264,000; four-week: down to 283,500, lowest since June, 2000.
October 9, 2014: last week's number for first time unemployment claims was revised upward 1,000; this week the number is down a thousand, a wash, as they say. Four-week average, 287,750. Weekly number stands at 287,000.
October 3, 2014: September, 2014, unemployment rate - 5.9%. Employers added 284,000 jobs.
October 2, 2014: "Apparently" the number dropped 8000 to 287,000. Previous week's number were revised up 2,000, to 295,000. Four-week average, 294,750.
September 25, 2014: first time claims surge 12,000 to 293,000; four-week average falls to 298,500. Analysts see this as incredibly good news.
September 18, 2014: incredibly and unexpectedly, first time claims for unemployment benefits plunged to 280,000; the four-week average is at 299,500. It will be interesting to see next week's numbers. One swallow does not mark the arrival of spring.
September 11, 2014: horrendous; back up to 315,000 (expectations? a modest drop to 300,000). Four-week moving average: 304,000, up from August 28, 2014.
September 5, 2014: horrendous job report; perhaps worst so far in this "recovery."
September 4, 2014: new jobs at 212,000 (note the "magic number" above). First time claims rise unexpectedly to 302,000; four-week average down.
Several headline data points at Drudge today regarding jobs:
- nearly 1 in 10 workers in California are illegally here in the United States
- all job gains in North Carolina since 2000 went to immigrants
- Obama signs agreement with Mexico to ensure "workers rights" regardless of legal status
August 21, 2014: plummets 14,000 to 298,000. Four-week average rose 4,750 to 300,750.
August 7, 2014: plummet "unexpectedly." Economists forecast a rise to 305,000 (that would have been up 3,000); instead the numbers fell 14,000 to 289,000; the four-week average fell to lowest market since February, 2006: 293,500.
August 1, 2014: unemployment, five years into the recovery, headed in wrong direction; ticks up to 6.2% from 6.1%. That's why Ms Yellen is being very, very cautious.
July 31, 2014: dismal, dismal jobs number. Climbed to 302,000, slightly more than expectations. The market tanks.
July 24, 2014: first-time unemployment claims plummet to lowest number since February, 2006: down to 284,000. Last week's number revised upward, slightly, to 303,000. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, declined 7,250 to 302,000. This is a remarkable report: this is the lowest reading since February, 2006, almost two years before the Great Recession began.
July 17, 2014: Declines underway in jobless claim point squarely to improvement underway in the labor market. Initial claims fell 3,000 in the July 12 week to 302,000. The 4-week average is also down 3,000, to 309,000 which is a new recovery low
July 10, 2014: first time claims down 11,000; lower-than-expected, 304,000; continuing claims, in lagging data for the June 28 week, did rise 10,000 to 2.584 million but the 4-week average is at a new recovery low, down 8,000 to 2.571 million.
July 2, 2014: jobs surge, unemployment drops to 6.1. Long-term unemployed at lowest level since 2009. Last week, revised: 224,000. This week, 288,000. Note the "magic number" above: anything over 200,000 is wonderful.
June 26, 2014: Down 2,000 to 312,000. The number of people actually receiving benefits inched up by 12,000 to 2.57 million. But the small increase comes after the level fell to a six-year low in the previous week. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, rose 2,000 to 314,000.
June 19, 2014: weekly claims decrease 6,000 to 312,000. The four-week average declining to 311,750 from 315,000 the week before suggests the four-week average is an anomaly based on the May 29, 2014, data point.
June 13, 2014: weekly claims up 4,000. Four-week average surges to 315,250.
June 9, 2014: the AP admits the "new norm" may be higher than 5% unemployment.
June 7, 2014: although the media spun it as a good week, in fact the news was bleak. First time claims did not go up all that much, only 8,000, but the fact they increased at all when they should have decreased is bleak indeed. Worse, the number of new jobs added was in-line with expectations, but not particularly upbeat. So, for the record, first time claims for unemployment insurance rose 8,000. The number is back up to 312,000, about where it's been "forever." The four-week average dropped to 310,250. Meanwhile, the ADP reported 179,000 new jobs: this is the fewest new jobs created since January, 2014. This is the longest jobs recovery since the US started tracking such data in 1939.
May 29, 2014: seasonally adjusted -- drops an incredible 27,000 (way more than forecast) down to 300,000; lowest level since 2007. Four-week average down to 311,500. That's down almost 12,000. and they say the four-week average is less volatile. LOL.
May 22, 2014: surges 28,000 -- wipes out last week's rise of 24,000, almost double what analysts forecast. Back up to 326,000; 4-week average now at 322,250.
May 15, 2014: plunges 24,000; at seven-year low; to pre-recession levels; 4-week moving average drops 2,000 to 323,250.
May 8, 2014: first-time claims plunge 26,000 but four-week moving average actually increased, to a 324,750, a third straight gain.
May 2, 2014: unemployment plunges to 6.3%. An astounding 288,000 new jobs reported.
May 1, 2014: spikes 14,000; back up to 344,000, the highest level since February, 2014. Even the less-volatile four-week average rose by an astounding 3,000 to 320,000.
April 24, 2014: up an incredible 24,000; back up to 329,000. Four-week moving average up almost 5,000 to 316,750.
April 17, 2014: jobless claims rise much less than expected; up to 304,000. The initial claims seasonally adjusted 4-week moving average fell 4,750 to 312,000 in the April 12 week, which is the lowest since the October 6, 2007 week when the 4-week moving average was 302,000.
April 10, 2014: jobless claims drop significantly, down to 300,000. Four-week average also down significantly to 316,250.
April 5, 2014: remember, the magic number is 200,000. Bloomberg survey forecast 206,000. Actual number: 192,000. Tepid, tepid, tepid.
April 3, 2014: initial claims come in more than twice what was expected; now back up to 326,000. Reuters still sees strong job growth on the horizon. The four-week average rose to 319,500. This is a most interesting report this week; there seems to be a bit of smoke-and-mirrors reporting.
March 27, 2014: claims drop by an astounding 11,000, unexpected. Now down to 311,000; analysts expected 323,000. Four-week average is 317,750, the lowest since September 28, 2013.
March 13, 2014: claims drop to 3-month low, 315,000. Four-week average down to 330,500.
February 27, 2014: claims surge; up 14,000, to 348,000.
February 20, 2014: status quo; down 3,000. We're going to be here forever going forward -- 330,000 +/-. Four-week average 336,750.
February 13, 2014: bad report, again. Same spin. Analysts had expected number to decrease to 330,000 (from 331,000 last week); instead it rose an astonishing 8,000 to 339,000; the four-week average rose to 336,650.
February 7, 2014: horrendous report. By the way does anyone still believe the government's official unemployment rate -- job gain horrendous, more folks entering the labor force (now that extended unemployment benefits lapsed), and official unemployment rate is at its lowest since October, 2008?
February 6, 2014: 331,000.
February 5, 2014: new jobs, 175,000 in January, 2014. Lousy report. Anything less than 200,000 = economic stagnation. Note: this is the ADP number for new PRIVATE jobs; I believe the government figures for ALL new jobs comes out at the end of the week; analysts are expecting a number of 190,000 which is less than the magic number of 200,000.
January 30, 2014: a BAD, BAD, BAD report, surging first time claims, up 19,000 and the revised number next week will show a higher number. The four-week average "ironed-out," increasing only 750 to 330,000.
January 23, 2014: simply no traction. Ticks up to 326,000. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, fell for the third straight week to 331,500. Both figures are said to be close to pre-recession levels and suggest that companies are laying off few workers. [Laying off fewer workers does not equate to increase hiring.]
January 10, 2014: bad, bad report; worst since January, 2011 -- Americans leaving the work force in droves; applications drop 15,000 to 330,000 (weather not a factor). New jobs added were 76,000, worse in three years (weather a factor). Four-week unemployment average drops 9,750 to 349,000.
January 2, 2014: drop 2,000 to 339,000. The much less volatile, and therefore much more meaningful actually rose 8,500 to 357,250.
December 26, 2013: back to the early days of the 2007 - 2009 recession. Down 42,000 to 338,000. Four-week moving average increased to by 4,250 to 348,000.
Decmember 19, 2013: what fresh hell is this? Analysts forecast a healthy decline. In fact, claims surged 10,000 to 380,000. We saw 380,000 back in early 2012. The saga continues. Not much has changed.
December 12, 2013: first time claims surge 68,000! The monthly average of claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, increased to 328,750 from 322,750 the week before.
December 5, 2013: plunges to nearly a six-year low; drops 23,000 to 298,000. Four-week moving average, 322,250.
November 27, 2013: down 10,000 to 316,000; 4-day moving average down to 331,750.
November 20, 2013: recent jobs reports are a disappointment -- Bernanke.
November 14, 2013: down 2,000.
November 8, 2013: new jobs added exceeds expectations; exceeds magic number of 200,000. Happy days are here again. Occurred during the government shutdown.