Why I can't quit reading The New Yorker.
From The New Yorker, November 14, 2022, p. 40++.
Wednesday, November 16, 2022
Anticipation -- November 16, 2022
Breaking: GOP re-takes the US House. Should never have been in question.
Pardon the interruption; now back to regular programming.
Saudi: just like the US Fed -- telegraphing their intentions. LOL.
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Word for the Day
Diegetic music: music that can be heard by a movie's characters as well as by its audience.
And look at the date of the entry:
The word "diegesis" comes from the Greek and literally means narration.
Within the oral storytelling tradition, the narrator creates "the world of the story."
In filmmaking, we call the world of a film the diegesis — everything that exists within that world is diegetic, everything else is non-diegetic. --- Nov 6, 2022
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Memories
Memories
I've found that little mementos are perfectly archived in frames and hung:
- top: snowy owl, Plum Island, Massachusetts, a photo taken by me! Pure luck.
- middle: Geneva Convention card; wow. Priceless.
- bottom: 3-cent US Coast Guard stamp, issued November 10, 1945 -- my dad served in the US Coast Guard / US Navy in World War II
To these three will be added a fourth, as soon as I get it framed: this small "plaque" was attached to some memento given to me following my first tour at RAF Mildenhall, northern England, near York, June 1, 2002, through August 21, 2002.
I was in the service (USAF) for thirty years and one day. Perhaps the best days of those thirty years were those few weeks in England. After I'm dead, my daughters might read about that tour. My wife just came across this little plaque a few days ago; I have no idea where it's been for twenty years.
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A Musical Interlude
A Musical Interlude
Three Words I Love To See In One Sentence: Williams, Sempra, and Haynesville -- November 16, 2022
I've accumulated shares in both companies for decades. Whoo-hoo! LOL.
The Haynesville is tracked here.
Williams Cos. and Sempra Infrastructure have entered a non-binding heads of agreement (HOA) under which 500 MMcfd of natural gas will be sold on a delivered basis to a receipt point near Gillis, La., and 3 million tonnes/year (tpy) of LNG will be lifted in aggregate under separate offtake agreements from Sempra’s proposed 6.75-million tpy Cameron LNG Phase 2 and 13-million tpy Port Arthur LNG liquefaction projects. The companies described the HOA as establishing “the elements of an integrated platform” to connect Haynesville shale production to Gulf Coast and global natural gas markets.
Sempra and Williams plan to form a strategic joint venture to own, expand, and operate the 2.35-bcfd Cameron Interstate pipeline to deliver gas to Cameron LNG Phase 2 in Hackberry, La. Additional pipelines expected to be owned by the joint venture include the 2-bcfd Louisiana Connector pipeline to supply Port Arthur LNG in Port Arthur, Tex.
Louisiana Connector will use 72 miles of 42-in. OD pipe and a compressor station in Beauregard Parish, La. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved the pipeline in April 2019 and approved an extended timeline for implementation 3 years later.
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Gasoline Demand
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $85.28.
Natural gas: $6.227.
Active rigs: 40.
One new permit, #39417:
- Operator: Bison Land & Minerals
- Field: Wildcat (Renville County)
- Comments:
- Bison Land & Minerals has a permit for a wildcat well in Renville County
- West Dry Creek 1H, SWNE 12-160-85, will be sited 2511 FNL and 2096 FEL
Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
- 37808, 1,521, Kraken, Raymond 16-21 4H, Oliver, t--; cum --;
- 37809, 1,541, Kraken, Raymond LE 16-21 1H, Oliver, t--; cum --;
- 37810, 758, Kraken, Washburne 15-22 7H, Oliver, t--; cum --;
- 32111, 2,180, Slawson, Armada Federal 4-14-13TFH, Big Bend, t--; cum --;
- 32112, 1,846, Slawson, Armada Federal 9-14-13TFH, Big Bend, t--; cum --;
- 38665, 2,265, Slawson, Armada Federal 8-14-13H, Big Bend, t--; cum --;
- 38365, 1,957, CLR, Fuller Federal 5-2H, Little Knife, t--; cum minimal production;
- 36353, 528, Lime Rock Resources, Jore Yellowstone 2H, North Fork;
- 38431, 954, Lindley 41-7HU, Parshall, t--; cum 39K after 54 days;
Florida -- Disney World -- EPCOT -- Prices Raised -- Again -- November 16, 2022
I've blogged about Disney no many occasions (see this post, for example) -- I don't know if I've flip-flopped, but I don't find Disney expensive at all. It's all relative. Front row tickets for Taylor Swift run $5,000+ if you can find them.
Today, the WSJ is reporting that prices at Disney World (Florida) have increased.
Before we get too far, remember, the target audience for The WSJ are households with a net worth of $5 million+.
From the linked article:
The Magazine Page -- November 16, 2022
I have subscribed - canceled - re-subscribed - canceled - re-subscribed a gazillion times when it comes to The New Yorker.
The last time I canceled, several years ago, was during the Clinton-Trump campaign -- every issue, almost every article was a negative story about Trump. Good, bad, indifferent, I simply got tired of it and canceled.
I've re-subscribed and often an issue or two goes by that I don't find something I would enjoy reading but more and more The New Yorker seems to be getting more enjoyable.
The most recent issue I have has this article and although I had no interest at first, it turns out it's a great article, and worth the subscription.
"They Shoot, He Scores," David Owen, The New Yorker, November 14 2022, p. 34++.
And this is why:
The more I read about Hollywood the more interesting it becomes.
And, as far as The New Yorker goes with regard to the presidential election in 2023 - 2024, something tells me, that The New Yorker and I will be on the same page.
Off The Net For Awhile -- Biking To Walmart To Check Out Prices -- November 16, 2022
Good luck to all.
Later, today at Walmart, best price I've seen all week --
Same price as last year, 2021, or perhaps a penny / pound cheaper.
Talking Turkey -- Again -- It's Get Tedious -- November 16, 2022
November 18, 2022: a reader sent me another note about Thanksgiving dinner and inflation. My reply:
Apparently you've noted that this whole issue is a burr under my virtual saddle -- I've posted this many times on the blog.
Knock off the price of the turkey and we're talking about $30 for the dinner. If you can't find a free turkey this holiday season, you're not trying hard enough.
Regardless, a 16-pound turkey can be had for 98 cents / pound -- as noted below -- or less than $16 -- compare to the nearly $30 in the graphic above.
By the way, we bought five big turkeys (16 to 22 pounds) earlier this week to donate to charity -- $92 from Target. Less than $20 / turkey. And most of the turkeys well above 16 pounds. All turkeys for 98 cents / pound sold out; had to settle for $1.19 / pound and two were Butterballs.
All this has been posted on the blog numerous times.
Stuffing? Store bought? My mom made incredibly good stuffing using old bread that would have been thrown out anyway and the gizzards / liver from the turkey. Celery? Most expensive ingredient? LOL. Her stuffing was essentially free.
Eggs: high price due more to avian flu than inflation.
And let's say the dinner does cost $70. We'll have leftovers that will last three or more lunches. Compare cost of these leftover lunches with a lunch downtown.
Later: today at Walmart, best price I've seen all week --
Same price as last year, 2021, or perhaps a penny / pound cheaper.
Original Post
Have you ever noticed, that all those folks quoting turkey prices never show the ads?
It never quits.
It gets tedious.
From The Hill, another inflationary Thanksgiving. What a bunch of malarkey.
Let's talk turkey.
First, most folks can get their turkey "free" this year. Even the "homeless." Sophia's extended family, by itself, donate seven -- count 'em -- seven turkeys -- to charitable donation.
"Every" grocer across America is offering a free turkey for purchases of as little as $50.
But even if paying for your turkey, see below the fold, below.
The linked article says:
Butterballs, which we bought and donated two days ago: $1.19 / pound.
Honeysuckles, which we bought and donated two days ago: $1.19 / pound.
Off-brands: 99 cents / pound. Sold out, two days ago.
A 16-pound turkey: about $16.
Not the $30 The Hill is quoting.
It gets tedious.
The price of a front-row ticket for Taylor Smith? $5,000+. That's if you can find one for that price.
I'm biking to Walmart to check on prices. I'll report back later.
But what a great county, when you-all can have turkey for Thanksgiving for free. What a great country, and here we have folks complaining about the price of turkeys. Oh, give me a break. What the Ukrainians would give for just a turkey leg.
Previously posted, just a few days ago:
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Talking Turkey
After posting a note on Thanksgiving meal expenses, I ended up in an e-mail discussion with a reader from Minnesota. Both he and I were comparing notes on grocers giving frozen turkeys away as promotional items if customers bought $50 to $100 worth of groceries.
If grocers are giving away turkeys as promotional items that suggests to me there is not a shortage of Thanksgiving turkeys as the mainstream media would have us believe.
I also noted the price: that a non-Butterball turkey was actually slightly less expensive than last year (although I might be comparing non-Butterball with Butterball turkeys). Be that as it may, you can still get a Thanksgiving turkey for less than $1.00 / pound.
Curious, the Minnesota reader simply typed in Butterball in his google search and this was his return:
Google/Walmart was tracking his location and referred him to a Mankato, MN, Walmart store. Note: this Butterball turkey at Walmart was priced at $1.18 / pound, a decrease from the "original" or perhaps competitor's price of a $1.70 / pound.
This certainly suggests to me that there is not now a shortage of Thanksgiving turkeys and they aren't much more expensive than last year.
However: my hunch is that by the last week in November, before Thanksgiving Thursday, it may be hard to find a turkey at your local grocery story. Plan accordingly.
.... it never quits. Now this, another google search that took me to Amazon:
Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- November 16, 2022
- US crude oil inventories decreased by a whopping 5.4 million bbls -- whopping when one considers the huge SPR releases this past year;
- US crude oil in storage now 4% below the five-year average despite the unprecedented release of oil from the SPR. Joe Biden knew what he was doing.
- Refiners are operating at 92.9% of their operable capacity -- about as high as they get this time of year.
- Distillate fuel inventories increased a bit but are still 15% below their five-year average -- but that's better than the 20% they've been running this past year. Having said that, the so-called "diesel shortage" is a regional problem to a great extent.
- Jet fuel product supplied was up 1.2%.
The traders already knew: WTI is down 2.15%. Recession risks trump falling crude oil inventories.
Another Open-Book Test For Investors -- November 16, 2022
This is not an investment site. No recommendations. Usual disclaimers apply.
This morning a reader sent me a link to the story about record US household credit debt.
My reply:
- for investors:
- MasterCard
- Visa
- Discover.
I've been accumulating Discover for years.
Today, on a down day for the market:
Idle Rambling Waiting For Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- November 16, 2022
Life is funny.
I've never, never, never paid my automobile insurance with a credit card until last month and that was only in error.
The story.
I have a credit card that I have not used in over three years.
Two months ago, I got a letter from that credit card company telling me that the card would be discontinued if I did not use it in 30 days.
One month ago, I got a letter from that credit card company telling me that the card was discontinued because I had not used the care in over three years (letter dated October 8, 2022).
On October 18, 2022, I went on-line to pay my automobile insurance bill which I have done every month for years.
I always pay with a transfer from an existing bank account. I never, never, never use a credit card.
Until that day, October 18, 2022.
I accidentally used that credit card about which I'm blogging. A mistake. The accounts were linked, apparently, and I clicked on the wrong button. I noted it but it was too late to change it, so I let it go.
Yesterday, in a flurry of activity, I deleted 267 e-mails -- don't ask -- and happened to see "high charge" connected with that credit card -- that I had not used in three years.
I paid the bill (of the credit card that had been discontinued, October 8, 2022); zeroed out the account.
Yesterday, I called the credit card company to see if that credit card was still active.
It was.
Simply because I accidentally hit the wrong button on the "pay my bill" page. LOL.
But, I got 5% cashback.
I assume most folks do this; I've thought about it often, but starting this month, I'm paying my rent, utilities, automobile insurance, with a credit card: to get 3% to 5% back -- and two of those three are big ticket items.
I'm going to call it "my" Texas two-step:
- first step: pay these bills with a credit card.
- second step: one week later, zero out the credit card.
Not only do I get a cash-back reward, the credit card company sends me an itemized end-of-year summary of all my expenses. By category.
I assume everyone does this.
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The Book Page
For movie buffs, highly recommended:
- Cinema Speculation, Quentin Tarantino, published November 1, 2022.
The book could easily be read in one sitting, but I'm enjoying it so much, reading it slowly.
It's not great literature and it's filled with typographical errors. But the stories and the anecdotes are great.
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Jiu-Jitsu
Watching Sophia at martial arts last night -- about 20 kids, two instructors, and a relatively small wrestling area, I imagined this was just like the wrestling gyms in Greece during their Golden Age.
Yes, I know: the Greek wrestlers would have all been nude and all would have been male, but clearly this was just Athens, 2,500 years later.
The Medical Page -- November 16, 2022
And, oh, by the way, it's natural, normal, and non-injurious to see one's serum cholesterol rise with age.
Many, many, many options before turning to statins.
Statins: last resort.
More important:
Me?
- Covid-19: fully immunized; two primary, and two boosters; expect new vaccine to be yearly;
- seasonal flu: vaccinated last week
- shingles: first of two in the series about two weeks ago
- pending:
- pneumococcal
- tetanus
We should see most recent CDC flu statistics today or tomorrow.
Toyota: Kaigi-Teck. EVs Not For Me -- November 16, 2022
EVs: not for me.
Toyota: kaigi-teki.
EVs are going to be an albatross around the necks of GM and F for a long time. For others, the niche may pay off. In twenty years.
Great Example Of Someone Unable To Connect The Dots -- November 16, 2022
The above was from this thread:
Also, link here:
From the blog over the past year, well before this story broke (this will get tedious):
- November 15, 2022.
- September 14, 2022.
- August 18, 2022.
- August 10, 2022.
- July 30, 2022.
- July 27, 2022.
- July 27, 2022.
- July 18, 2022.
- July 17, 2022.
- July 15, 2022.
- July 14, 2022.
- July 8, 2022.
- June 30, 2022.
- June 28, 2022.
- June 10, 2022.
- 2Q22 -- Investing: for the record, I increased by TSM holdings this morning by 34%. My heirs will never, never ask what I paid for these shares. They will simply be thrilled TSM is in the portfolio thirty years from now.
- May 12, 2022.
- May 1, 2022.
- April 22, 2022.
- Early -- 2Q22: TSMC -- hitting on all cylinders.
- April 19, 2022.
- April 19, 2022. Earnings, 1Q22.
- March 30, 2022.
And, I could go on and on but you get the point.
The Lego Page -- November 16, 2022
New products being launched.
Lego Loop Coaster: 10303 --
Five: still less expensive than one Taylor Swift ticket. In fact, you can get ten for the price of a front-row Taylor Swift ticket.
Crypto: More Preparing For Bankruptcy? November 16, 2022
I've lost track of all the miners, but it appears "big names" are starting to get mentioned in the same paragraphs we see "bankruptcy."
Peter Zeihan: Sayonara, China -- November 16, 2022
China: sayonara.
We're gonna talk more about this later.
There's a few reasons people love manufacturing in Texas - it's cheap, it follows American law and low tax rates.
Electronics manufacturing is something that Americans haven't worried about in decades...they could just outsource it to East Asian countries. Now that these countries are facing headwinds in their economic systems, Americans will either have to make it themselves or kiss those shiny toys goodbye. This reshoring effort will require somewhere in the ballpark of 2 million jobs.
Not too bad right?
Oh wait, they'll also need to send some of that labor-intensive stuff to their southerly neighbor. So find somewhere with excess employment capacity, large populations, solid infrastructure, a workforce with diverse skill-sets...and in close proximity to Mexico.
That's no small feat, but there are a few locations that meet the long list of criteria.
Can you guess what city tops the list?
Manufacturing: two million just to handle electronics.
US-Mexico border.
San Antonio, El Paso, San Diego, Tuscon.
In that order.
Energy -- November 16, 2022
Diesel:
- Biden will have to act quickly; winter is here. Biden will do the right thing.
- Josh Young.
Tea leaves: oil to get a lot more expensive. Higher for longer.
WMT Vs TGT -- 3Q22
With all that talk about a possible recession, this might be a great time to talk about demographics and where folks shop in good times, and where they shop in bad times.
Also: inventory control and logistics.
Also: on-line presence.
Also: Walmart's real competitor.
Also: will this come into play?
WMT: read the thread; for those negative on WMT, I wonder what they're saying about TGT
TGT: huge ouch.
EOG And The Utica -- RBN Energy -- November 16, 2022
Later today:
- WMT vs TGT
- TGT
- food inflation
- diesel exports
- crypto
- cholesterol
- Taylor vs Disneyland
- AAPL, TSM, and Buffett
- Lego: 10303
What we won't talk about today:
- Ukraine, not Russian, missiles hit Poland.
- Trump.
- Texas border.
Tea leaves: it's gonna be a great day.
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Back to the Bakken
The Far Side: link here.
Active rigs: 41.
WTI: $86.61. Down slightly overnight.
Natural gas: $5.958.
Friday, November 18, 2022: 30 for the month, 67 for the quarter, 612 for the year.
None.
Thursday, November 17, 2022: 30 for the month, 67 for the quarter, 612 for the year.
38818, conf, CLR, Bonneville 10-23H1,
38521, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-5-2HU,
37429, conf, Hess, EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-0705H-5,
35716, conf, Enerplus, FB Leviathan 151-94-27A-34-12T,
37430, conf, Hess, EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-0705H-6,
38792, conf, Ovintiv, White Butte 146-98-34-27-1H,
RBN Energy: EOG again seeks to build on its oil and gas inventory organically, this time in the Utica. Archived.
As U.S. E&Ps deal with a slew of shorter-term challenges such as broken supply chains, labor shortages, and infrastructure constraints, they’re also paying increasing attention to a longer-term concern: “inventory exhaustion.” There is a growing chorus of analysts asserting that oil and gas producers’ inventory of top-tier drilling locations has been significantly depleted as the nation’s major unconventional resource plays mature. Many producers have continued to rein in their capital spending and husband their current resources and several have boosted inventories through bolt-on acquisitions. Premier E&P EOG Resources has taken a different approach, emphasizing organic exploration that has led to the discovery of two new significant plays over the past two years, including the recent announcement of a new Utica Shale combo play that it describes as being “almost reminiscent” of the early Delaware Basin. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss EOG’s dramatically different approach to building inventory and dive into the details of its new Utica discovery.
From the onset of the Shale Revolution, E&Ps funded double-digit annual growth that boosted output from 5.5 MMb/d in 2010 to nearly 13 MMb/d in 2019 before the pandemic-induced demand destruction disrupted the industry. Despite soaring crude prices, booming markets, and ever-improving drilling-and-completion technology, post-pandemic U.S. oil production recovery has proceeded at a much more tepid pace, frustrating politicians and consumers in the process. U.S. crude oil production may finally reach 2019’s average level next year, although the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has twice reduced its 2023 growth forecast to a current 4%, or 480 Mb/d.