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Sunday, May 3, 2020

Campaign 2020

 Page One
This Is Page Two

Links

A wartime president.

Power Line.


Updates

November 4, 2020: Trump trails in electoral college count. Once mail-in ballots are counted, the tea leaves suggest there's no way Trump can win. If Biden wins, the #1 question: how soon will Hillary Clinton show up in Washington, DC, and will she be appointed special advisor to the president, with a goal of marginalizing Kamala Harris. Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself.

August 11, 2020: Joe Biden selects Kamala Harris as his running mate.
 
July 24, 2020: Texas is in play!


July 9, 2020: it will be reported otherwise, but this was a huge win for the president

June 23, 2020:


Shaun King - 1/1024 black.
Elizabeth Warren - 1/1024 Indian.
Beto O'Rourke - 1/1024 Latino.
Colin Kaepernick - 1/1024 NFL star.
Jim Acosta - 1/1024 journalist.
Amy Klobuchar - 1/1024 pacifist.
Joe Biden - 1/1024 lucid.
Fredo Cuomo - 1/1024 anchor.
Al Gore - 1/1024 scientist.
Meghan Markle - 1/1024 TV star.
CNN - 1/1024 network.
Jussie Smolett - 1/1024 victim.
Richard Blumenthal - 1/1024 war hero.
Bubba Wallace - 1/1024 NASCAR race driver.


June 20, 2020:


June 17, 2020: Bolton's book -- worst timing ever --
  • corona virus second wave hysteria
  • protests continue; #BLM; Seattle; Minneapolis;
  • Bolton: under than a few of us, almost no one knows who John Bolton even is;
  • I doubt he can report anything untrue / more scandalous / more sensational than what media has already reported;
  • more fake news;
  • it does give Rachel Maddow and CNN more life; 
June 14, 2020: sleepless in Seattle. The mayor of Seattle recognizes CHAZ as legitimate. Pretty cool.


June 13, 2020: apparently "social distancing" is no longer a "thing" in Seattle. Why do I get the feeling I'm seeing an example of the Peter Principle? She lost the 3rd Precinct to some riff raff.



June 7, 2020: after ten nights of looting and rioting, Trump's approval ratings move from 44% approval to 48% approval. Minneapolis city council votes to "dismantle" police department; NYC will "defund" the NYPD.


June 2, 2020: And social distancing not required by authorities.



May 26, 2020: already forgot one of his campaign slogans.

May 23, 2020: Joe Biden: I'm going to beat Joe Biden.

May 22, 2020: Trump suffers from mainstream media constant pounding --


May 20, 2020: she should know.



May 3, 2020 -- Betting Odds: Trump up almost 9 points. Polls show Sleepy Joe leading Trump by more than 5 to 9 points in national polls and swing state polls.


Wuhan Flu: SARS-CoV-2 And COVID 19

This is Page Three


The best historic precedent:

The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic caused by the H1N1 influenza A virus. Lasting from February 1918 to April 1920, it infected 500 million people – about a third of the world's population at the time – in four successive waves. The death toll is typically estimated to have been somewhere between 17 million and 50 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.

Let's parse that paragraph:

  • February, 1918 --April, 1920: 26 months
  • no vaccine -- didn't even know it was a virus
  • a third of the world's population became infected
  • death toll: estimated between 17 million and 50 million
  • four successive waves

Coronavirus:

  • December, 2019 - present
  • September 29, 2020:
    • 34 million cases
    • one million deaths

Coronavirus: statistics. By country. By state.

Genetics. Link here. Also, here.

US re-opening, tracked here.

New York: mortality rate (new link noted June 1, 2020).

Commentary: 2020.  

Children (received from a reader, August 12, 2020):

I met Dr. Deane Waldman a number of years ago.  He is an MD, an Albuquerque physician who also earned an MBA. He prefers to be called Dr. Deane.  As we were descending into the insanity of Obamacare, he'd willingly spoken to several groups at my request.

Anyway, I'm still on his contact list.

Here's an excerpt of an article which was published in The Federalist  on August 10, 2020.  

I have his permission to share this clip, and he encourages others to spread the word.  If you quote him, you owe ME a drink - ha!
Regarding the risk of death from CoViD-19 in children, on August 5, 2020, President Trump said they were “almost immune.” Both the White House press corps and Politfact wrote this was a lie, that there was no evidence to support such a claim. But there is. According to official data, on August 5, 2020, 142,164 Americans had died with death attributed to CoViD-19. Of these, 45 were less than 15 years of age. This calculates to a childhood risk of death from CoViD-19 of 0.03 percent, and conversely, a safety factor for children of 99.97 percent. No vaccine ever created for any infectious illness has a protection level as high as 99.97 percent, comparable to the immunity that children seem to exhibit to CoViD-19.

Updates

October 1, 2020: commentary. Compare with Spanish Flu, 1918 - 1920.

September  28, 2020: California -- record low numbers.

September 23, 2020: a California clinic's experience.
 

September 9, 2020: Sweden has defeated Wuhan flu.

August 26, 2020: US DOJ gets involved.
 
August 10, 2020: another one bites the dust.
 
 
August 3, 2020: the Trump cocktail.

July 26, 2020: update

July 21, 2020: the science is settled -- science no longer matters.

July 19, 2020: this op-ed seems fair and well-balanced.

July 12, 2020: consider the source, but some are suggesting New York is well on its way to "herd immunity with a 21% infection rate and an existing, circulating natural immunity of 40%, giving New Yorkers a 61% move toward herd immunity. 

July 6, 2020:


June 28, 2020: Sweden's strategy may still win out.

June 23, 2020: black privilege -- I can't make this stuff up --




June 22, 2020: when will we "back to normal"?
  • NFL is betting on mid-November, 2020
  • London may: not until mid-2021

June 19, 2020: I see the mainstream media is suggesting that Covid-19 is harder on "blacks" than other ethnicities. My hunch: it's all about pre-existing, underlying medical conditions. When Italy and Spain were particularly hard hit early on, there was no evidence it was due to their overwhelming black population.

June 17, 2020: fake news and huge expectations.

June 16, 2020: fake news out of Texas.

June 7, 2020: Global headlines not necessarily good. Mainstream media tracking each "million" milestone of cases when, in fact, cases don't matter. Headline: South Korea grappling with uptick in infections; data doesn't support the headline. The "hot spot" I'm watching: Minneapolis and New York.

June 6, 2020: Norway vs Sweden, six months into the pandemic.

May 31, 2020: random update; some nice data points. So, now we have:

  • a virus that is not particularly infectious (this was suggested months ago, by the way), relative to smallpox, chickenpox, measles, and, the virus that causes the Trump Derangement Syndrome (which, by the way, that virus has still not been identified);
  • a virus that is not particularly deadly (CDC confirms, see link above);
  • a virus that pretty much hits those already with significant medical problems, and/or the elderly;
  • a virus, that compared to "seasonal flu," for which we have a vaccine, albeit very ineffective, that spares children and young adults;
May 30, 2020: mark these dates -- June 14 - June 21.
The Minneapolis riots broke out the night of May 28. On May 29, sympathetic riots broke out in NYC, Los Angeles, Dallas, other cities. These folks -- all of whom were wearing masks, of course -- were not practicing social distancing. Let's see if that affects the number of cases. The increase in deaths, if there are any, might not show up until a couple of weeks later. But certainly by the end of June we should have a good idea if the riots made the corona virus pandemic worse in the cities that were affected.
May 29, 2020: Norway vs Sweden, update.

May 27, 2020: the CDC is conflating corona virus numbers

May 25, 2020: something I've not seen addressed in mainstream media. Everyone agrees that testing for Wuhan flu is going to increase "exponentially" over the next few weeks. All things being equal, even if there is no "real" increase in the number of Wuhan flu cases, just the fact that more folks are being tested, the number of cases will increase. Two things: the federal government says lock downs in the US states can continue if there is a downward trend in the number of new cases being reported. Does the federal government know something the rest of us don't know? Second, if increased testing does not result in an "exponential" increase in the number of positive results -- what does that tell us about the pandemic? If there is something to this, we should see by following number of new cases by state. What state should we follow? Let's follow NY, LA, MI, for various reasons.

May 23, 2020: NY governor Cuomo under huge pressure. Says he was only following President Trump's guidance to explain New York state's huge Wuhan flu-related case fatality rate. The CDC confirms remarkably low Wuhan flu death rate.

May 22, 2020: Dak Prescott has still not signed. Does he really think there's no chance that there will be no NFL season this year?

May 18, 2020: weird Scandinavian graphs.

May 16, 2020: Tokyo and targeted surveillance.

May 8, 2020: Japan vs NYC. Data as of May 4, 2020.

May 8, 2020: must-watch video. Wiki entry.

May 5, 2020: by any measure, Sweden did much worse than its Scandinavian neighbors, and it wasn't even close

May 4, 2020: I'm not quite sure how to address the question but there must be some "political" correlation between those who felt, for example, under ObamaCare, that medical care must be rationed, and that folks with serious underlying medical conditions and/or over the age of 75 should not be aggressively treated vs those who now suggest that not one life should be lost to Wuhan flu if we can prevent it, no matter how much it costs. Mark Perry would be the guy to put up a Venn diagram and color in the area of those with cognitive dissonance. 
That was the whole reason behind the "stay-in-shelter" strategies -- to flatten the curve so that hospitals would not be overwhelmed. Under ObamaCare, that would not have been an issue. Hospitals would have had to form triage teams / "death committees" to decide who got treated and who didn't.

May 4, 2020: because of the way the CDC focuses on total number of cases (which makes little sense), Rhode Island is an outlier among the New England states. It does not show up among the list which includes MA, CT, NY, PA, and NJ. I was curious. Where does RI stack up when looking at numbers based on population?  I haven't changed any of the numbers in the spreadsheet below, except to add Rhode Island to the bottom of the spreadsheet. On a per capita basis, RI would rank #3, between CT and MA, for new cases in the past 24 hours. It would be incredibly interesting to remove nursing home numbers from all Wuhan flu statistics, but the only ones who know that number are the CDC and a few politicians who are intellectually curious. 

May 3, 2020: Governor Cuomo took the Swedish strategy route before he took Trump's advice to "shut down." I disagree with Dr Frieden's conjecture but I appreciated the op-ed:
Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, former head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and former commissioner of the city’s Health Department, says that if the state and city had adopted widespread social-distancing measures a week or two earlier, including closing schools, stores, and restaurants, the estimated death toll from the outbreak might have been reduced by 50 to 80 percent. Instead, New York mandated those measures after localities in states including California and Washington had done so.
May 3, 2020: tracking number of cases is irrelevant. Tracking deaths is somewhat more relevant. May 2, 2020, is a great milestone to begin such tracking: shelter-in-place orders are expiring in many states, protestors are becoming more vocal, and folks are flocking to the beaches, whether "allowed" or "not allowed." Ranked in order that the CDC ranked them on this date (total cases, which, of course, is irrelevant unless one has a hidden agenda).
Deaths - May 2, 2020
New Deaths Over Past 24 Hours
Total Deaths
% new deaths in this state vs top 11 states
% total deaths in this state vs top 11 states
NY
299
24368
23%
45%
NJ
204
7742
16%
14%
MA
130
3846
10%
7%
IL
102
2559
8%
5%
CA
77
2188
6%
4%
PA
125
2776
10%
5%
MI
154
4020
12%
7%
FL
50
1364
4%
3%
TX
25
874
2%
2%
CT
97
2436
8%
4%
LA
23
1993
2%
4%






1286
54166



Ranked in order of number of new deaths (in previous 24 hours) per one million population:
Deaths - May 2, 2020
State population in 100K
New Deaths Over Past 24 Hours
Total Deaths
% new deaths in this state vs top 11 states
% total deaths in this state vs top 11 states
Total Deaths/100K population
Total Deaths/100K as Precent Among Top 11 States
New Deaths/Million Populaton
NJ
90
204
7742
16%
14%
86.02
14%
2267
CT
40
97
2436
8%
4%
60.90
4%
2425
MA
70
130
3846
10%
7%
54.94
7%
1857
MI
100
154
4020
12%
7%
40.20
7%
1540
NY
200
299
24368
23%
45%
121.84
45%
1495
PA
130
125
2776
10%
5%
21.35
5%
962
IL
130
102
2559
8%
5%
19.68
5%
785
LA
40
23
1993
2%
4%
49.83
4%
575
FL
220
50
1364
4%
3%
6.20
3%
227
CA
400
77
2188
6%
4%
5.47
4%
193
TX
300
25
874
2%
2%
2.91
2%
83


May 3, 2020:


Pandemic Crisis Offers Glimpse Into Oil Industry's Future -- David Sheppard -- Financial Times -- May 3, 2020

Linked at paywall. Archived.


Opinions on both sides.
On one side stand executives like Lord Browne, who now chairs LetterOne, part owner of independent oil and gas producer Wintershall DEA, as well as sitting on the board of a biomedical institution researching potential vaccines for Covid-19. They believe the world will be changed so indelibly that oil demand will struggle to regain the upwards trajectory that has underpinned the industry for over a century. They see the potential for demand to peak earlier than expected, with a more rapid shift into renewable energy.

On the other side of the argument are those who think that efforts to mitigate climate change risk being derailed by cheap oil and a global depression that will suck up so much government time and stimulus money that climate efforts will be pushed aside. In this scenario, investment in the oil industry could fall so much that supply shortages eventually emerge, spiking prices higher.
And this:
The political backdrop for the oil industry is also less stable. Saudi Arabia’s initial response to the slowdown in oil consumption was to launch a price war with Russia, raising its production to maximum levels, partly in a bid to make up in volumes what it lost in price.
While the kingdom has since returned to restricting output, under pressure from US president Donald Trump, analysts believe that could be a portent of national oil companies realising that demand is going to peak sooner rather than later. For Saudi Arabia, which has 75 years’ worth of oil in the ground, the most rational approach may be to pump as hard as possible now.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

*********************************
Today's Rant

May 3, 2020: Sweden won the debate. I'm getting tired of the "blame game" and arguing about who won the debate. That's why I like watching poker. Poker players learn by playing. Poker players are forced to work with the hand they are dealt. Poker players cannot predict what cards they will be dealt, nor can they predict how their opponents will respond. When a hand is over, a hand is over. They move on to the next hand. They don't debate each hand until the cows come home. Good poker players learn from each hand but they don't need to talk about what they learned.
We are now ready to benefit from both the draconian lock down efforts and Sweden's "herd immunity" strategy.

1.The goal of the draconian lock down efforts was to flatten the curve. It was not to stop the spread of the virus, nor decrease the number of ultimate cases and ultimate deaths. It was to slow the spread of the virus, but even with a vaccine this virus will not be eradicated due to human efforts.

2. The powers-that-be were panicked over the thought that the heath systems would implode, that the heath care sector could not keep up. That was the purpose of slowing the spread, or "flattening the curve."

3. The health systems have now had time to prepare, the curves have flattened everywhere (with some notable exceptions).

4. We should now implement Sweden's strategy. Open "everything" up with targeted surveillance, and targeted responses.
 It will be interesting to see the number of corona-virus-associated deaths in southern California three weeks from now following the on-again-off-again opening of the southern California beaches.

Decades-Old Kraken Wells Shows 8-Fold Jump In Production -- May 3, 2020

The Kraken Bigfoot wells are tracked here. They are "monster" wells. In addition, they will positively impact neighboring, producing wells.

Example, this well:
  • 17812, 660, Kraken, Anderson 11-14H, Sanish, t6/09; cum 353K 3/20; huge jump in production; from 925 to 7529 bbls/month, that represents an 8-fold jump in production.
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-202031383538812912000
BAKKEN2-202028367538042747424522921759
BAKKEN1-202031409940332930473422922194
BAKKEN12-201931697573285808805622575553
BAKKEN11-201930752970317380869620516437
BAKKEN10-2019173434409542183966383808
BAKKEN9-20191649684317643757381775482
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-2019153435351403960308
BAKKEN3-201931925845153113624897
BAKKEN2-201927766707148978491135
BAKKEN1-2019288829841309760751

Other wells positively impacted by the Bigfoot wells:
  • 21381, 1,150, Kraken, Dinwoodie 11-14H, Sanish, t1/12; cum 277K 3/20; huge jump in production;
  • 22429, 743, Kraken, Reynold 11-14H, Sanish, t6/12; cum 270K 3/20; nice jump in production;
  • 22853, 687, Kraken, Isaac 11-23, Sanish, t7/12; cum 150K 3/20; small but definite jump in production.

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Week -- May 3, 2020

The wells:
  • 36579, conf, XTO, Tong 34X-9A, Midway, no production data, 
  • 36577, conf, XTO, Tong 34X-9C, Midway, no production data, 
  • 35879, conf, Zavanna Usher 28-20 5HXW, Patent Gate,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2020167310
2-2020273349
1-20201920
12-2019373544415
11-20195110
  • 33807, conf, BR, CCU Gopher 6-2-15MBH, Corral Creek, no production data, 
  • 36637, conf, WPX, Nighthawk 6-34HY, Heart Butte, no production data, 
  • 36575, conf, XTO, Tong 34X-9D, Midway, no production data, 
  • 33808, conf, BR, CCU Gopher 5-2-15TFH, Corral Creek, no production data, 
  • 36591, conf, Rimrock, Skunk Creek 8-2-3-5H3, South Fork,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-202018994
  • 35670, conf, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21-6H, Poe,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2020216220
2-20202797127870
1-2020278051136
12-2019420795779
11-2019149980
  • 36590, conf, Rimrock, Skunk Creek, 8-2-3-4H, South Fork,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2020103435576
  • 34165, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUS Njos 5-36-35-157N-100W-LL MBH,  Marmon, no production data,
  • 36589, conf, Rimrock, Skunk Creek 8-2-3-4H3, South Fork,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2020138387280
  • 36550, conf, WPX, Blue Racer 14-11HUL, Mandaree, no production data, 
  • 37003, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Elena 9-22-15-157N-100@-LL MBH, Marmon, no production data, 
  • 36588, conf, Rimrock, Skunk Creek 8-2-3-4HA, South Fork,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20201846610656
  • 36504, conf, WPX, Blue Racer 14-11HD, Squaw Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20203146621916
  • 37042, conf, Eagle Operating, Wobbly 19-9,  Great Northern,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20206030
2-202022900
  • 36587, conf, Rimrock Oil, Skunk Creek 8-2-3-4H3U, Heart Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-2020152463848
  • 36505, conf, WPX, Blue Racer 14-11HZ, Squaw Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20204478320697
  • 36094, conf, XTO, Krieger 42X-17G, Alkali Creek, no production data, 
  • 33023, conf, BR, Renegade 24-10 MBH, Sand Creek, no production data, 
  • 36506,, drl, WPX, Blue Racer 14-11HG, Squaw Creek, 

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-202026347313455520201423021354224910
  • 36093, drl,  XTO, Krieger 42X-17C, Alkali Creek, no production data,
  • 34166, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Njos 9-26-35-157N-100W TFH, Marmon, no production data,
  • 36092, drl, XTO, Krieger 42X-17H, Alkali Creek, no production data,