Global Warming? No Future For The Bronx? -- Occasional-Cortex -- March 29, 2019

LOL. I can't even link this -- but I'm sure it can be easily found -- I'm hoping we can find it on YouTube eventually ....

New York Democratic congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez appeared on MSNBC Friday to address the Green New Deal with host Chris Hayes and discussed the dire world she's convinced lies ahead for Americans if climate change is not addressed.

“So this issue is not just about our climate. First and foremost we need to save ourselves. Period. There will be no future for the Bronx ...  said Occasional-Cortex.

I can't make this up. Thank God Algore and Occasional-Cortex arrived on the scene when they did. Fourpointfive billion years the earth has been around ... and now, at "end days" -- our mortal saviors are here, having arrived just in time.

No future for the Bronx. LOL. I guess that means no more future for the New York Yankees either -- or they will have to move their stadium ... current address ... 1 E 161 St, The Bronx, NY 10451 ... maybe to the ice-free Arctic.

Isn't she the one who guaranteed less of a future for Long Island City -- you know, the Amazon HQ2 story? ... Or has Chris Hayes forgotten all about that already?

*********************************

Echo Chamber

Again, I highly recommend, at least weekly, checking in on Powerline and Deplorable Climate Science, linked at the sidebar at the right.

I am absolutely convinced of two things when it comes to liberals, progressives, and socialists:

• they exist in an echo chamber; and, 
• they don't read any more.

Of course, this is not unique to liberals, progressives, or socialists but no other group seems so unable to critically analyze anything.

*********************************

The Book Page

From The Language Instinct: How The Mind Creates Language, Steven Pinker, c. 1994.

Dave Barry, page 196, explains how to diagram a sentence.

Q: Please explain how to diagram a sentence.

A: First spread the sentence out on a clean, flat surface, such as an ironing board. Then, using a sharp pencil or X-Acto knife, locate the "predicate," which indicates where the action has taken place and is usually located directly behind the gills. For example, in the sentence: "LaMont never would of bit a forest ranger," the action probably took place in a forest. Thus your diagram would be shaped like a little tree with branches sticking out of it to indicate the locations of the various particles of speech, such as your gerunds, proverbs, adjutants, etc. 

*************************************

The iPhone Page

I am absolutely amazed at what Apple / Google have teamed up to do on the iPhone.

On the non-mobile "Google" webpage, one simply gets a blank page with a blank search box.

But on the iPhone, or mobile "Google" page, beneath the "Google" search box, there appear approximately a dozen top stories specifically targeted to the user of the iPhone and one ad, also tailored to the user.

Today, this is what I get when I go to "Google" on my iPhone. First the search box, and then:

• physics: an article from Forbes on matter-antimatter
• an ad for the Discover credit card
• a news story on Beto scheduling first three rallies in Texas, from CNN
• from CNBC, an article on Musk Melon and Tesla
• from The Hill, "GOP shifts focus to investigating Obama officials"
• an album review of my favorite group, "Debbie Harry and Andre the Giant," from Imgur
• bankruptcies for North Dakota and western Minnesota, Inforum
• UND to give honory degrees to Heitkamp, Hamm, from The Grand Forks Herald

Absolutely stunning; absolutely remarkable. I had not seen any of those articles until they popped up on the iPhone and each of them interested me.

Some folks would find this creepy, an invasion of privacy. Not me. I prefer this rather than an ad for Viagra and a dozen stories on global warming, Jessie "the Mullet" Smollet; and/or Hillary's comeback tour. 

By the way, that Forbes article on matter-antimatter is an excellent article, well worth a read.  

The timing of the Discover credit card ad is particularly amazing. It is obvious Apple/Google/someone is tracking my credit card purchases. And I don't use Discover Card on the computer; I use it only as an in-store card only. 

Bakken: #1 In NGPL Yield Among US Shale Plays -- March 29, 2019

As I've said many, many times: the Bakken never fails to amaze me.

Re-posting.

Look at this graphic:

Comments:

• this is liquid production comparing six named production areas and the rest of the nation
• the Permian goes from slightly less than 0.5 to about 0.80 million bpd
• Eagle Ford has huge increase on a percentage basis and despite its small footprint compares nicely with the Permian
• Anadarko: pretty much unchanged, but still, significant production
• northern Appalachia, from "zero" just a few years ago, now a major player
• Western Rockies: decreasing (regulatory issues?)
• but look at the Bakken. Wow! From almost zero back in 2012, now a significant player

"A significant player." Wow, what an understatement on my behalf. Wow.

This is absolutely incredible. Look at this. Just hours after posting the above graphic, EIA posts this graphic:

From EIA's glossary:

Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL): Those hydrocarbons in natural gas that are separated as liquids at natural gas processing, fractionating, and cycling plants. Products obtained include ethane, liquefied petroleum gases (propane, normal butane, and isobutane), and natural gasoline. Component products may be fractionated or mixed. Lease condensate and plant condensate are excluded.

Note: Some EIA publications categorize NGPL production as field production, in accordance with definitions used prior to January 2014.

Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) production: The extraction of gas plant liquids constituents such as ethane, propane, normal butane, isobutane, and natural gasoline, sometimes referred to as extraction loss. Usually reported in barrels or gallons, but may be reported in cubic feet for purposes of comparison with dry natural gas volumes.

I do not know if there is a difference between NGL and NGPL (natural gas liquids and natural gas plant liquids). For purposes of this discussion, probably not. 

Six New Permits -- March 29, 2019

Active rigs:

$60.14	3/29/2019	03/29/2018	03/29/2017	03/29/2016	03/29/2015
Active Rigs	67	60	49	31	97

Six new permits: pending

• Operators: WPX (3); MRO (3)
• Fields: Mandaree; Chimney Butte, Killdeer
• Comments:
• WPX has permits for a 3-well Rubia pad in section 24-149-94, Mandaree oil field;
• MRO has permits for a 2-well Dorothy/Dasha pad in section 13-146-95; and a single Blanche permit in section 36-146-95; the Dorothy/Dasha pad will be in Chimney Butte, and the Blanche well will be in Killdeer oil field

Eight permits renewed:

• BR (3): two Gudmunson permits and one Gudcadia permit, all in McKenzie County
• EOG (3): three Clearwater permits in Mountrail County
• Petro Harvester (2): RNL1 permits in Burke County

Change of operator: from Crescent Point Energy to Ballantyne (I think a reader gave me a "head's up on this one, some time ago) -- about 140 wells

• oldest: 00884
• most recent: 28929
• all in Bottineau County

Price Of Gasoline To Soar -- March 29, 2019

Again, it gets back to the "right" kind of oil: heavy vs light. We have a glut of oil but it's the wrong kind. We need more "heavy" oil to balance the "light" oil for refining.

Random Update Of Two EOG Austin Wells In Parshall -- March 29, 2019

From an earlier note:

September 21, 2018: Apparently #34550 and #34552 have both been completed within the last couple of days. 34553 drl-->loc and 34550 SI/NC --conf --10/18; 

Update:

• 34552, SI/NC - conf, EOG, Austin 414-2919H, Parshall, production:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2019	15038	4497
12-2018	18390	3322
11-2018	21836	6829
10-2018	912	539

• 34550, SI/NC - conf, EOG, Austin 411-2919H, production:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2019	7455	9642
12-2018	8154	6830
11-2018	5261	1094

Random Update Of An Old Alfred Old Dog Well -- March 29, 2019

The Alfred Old Dog wells are tracked here.

Let's take a look at #26154, drilled back in 2014, and already nearing a half million bbls of oil:

• 26154, 1,842, WPX, Alfred Old Dog 19-18HD, 33-025-02240, t9/14; cum 401K 10/18; off line late 2018;in fact, all nine Alfred Old Dog wells were taken off line at the same time; back on line as of 11/18; no evidence of a re-frack;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	8802	8765	4853	12385	6523	4758
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	11911	12008	7375	16758	5133	10190
BAKKEN	11-2018	11	2863	2800	3137	4030	1892	1782
BAKKEN	10-2018	1	0	0	0	5	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	23	5952	5906	6227	8374	3409	4204
BAKKEN	7-2018	16	4729	4516	8947	6654	2449	3626
BAKKEN	6-2018	8	653	727	392	918	642	166
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	4303	4396	1541	6053	5284	147
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	5461	5415	1706	11248	10506	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	5492	5615	1086	7728	6625	354
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	3383	3345	948	4760	2232	2030
BAKKEN	1-2018	10	1260	1928	290	1772	1283	312
BAKKEN	12-2017	29	5378	4680	1546	7568	2651	4186
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	5005	4966	1459	7041	3962	2390

To the mineral owner, it really doesn't matter why production jumped, does it? Consider the change in royalty checks from:

• 6/18 to 7/18;
• 7/18 to 12/18;

FracFocus: no recent re-frack; fracked in September, 2014;
NDIC file report: 18 tanks on the pad; no recent frack;

geological summary: 60 miles north of Dickinson, ND [pretty funny: in fact it's much nearer to Watford City than Dickinson)];

took about a day to build the curve; seven encounters of out-of-zone drilling, but no shale strikes; but look at this, the middle Bakken formation (target zone) for this well was ascertained to have a maximum bed thickness of approximately 10 feet. Wow, drilling two miles down and they have a 10-foot target window. Great geologists; great roughnecks. And once in, the target zone, the seam "undulates." Six days to drill the lateral. And then, again, look at this: a total of 65% of the lateral was drilled within the middle Bakken formation target zone. But again, never left the middle Bakken if I read the report correctly.

Huge Headline But In The Big Scheme Of Things ... Another Nothing Burger; Western Canada Still Landlocked -- March 29, 2019

Enbridge Line 5, Michigan, replacement: stopped.

From wiki:

Enbridge Line 5 is a major oil pipeline in the Enbridge Lakehead System, which conveys petroleum from western Canada to eastern Canada via the Great Lakes states.

Line 5 is particularly notable for passing under the environmentally sensitive Straits of Mackinac, which connect Lake Michigan to Lake Huron. As of December 2013, the line carries 540,000 barrels of oil per day. It carries synthetic crude, natural gas liquids, sweet crude, and light sour crude.

So, a half million bbls of crude oil from western Canada to eastern Canada every day. That will continue until the 65-year-old pipeline is considered unsafe or starts leaking.

A quick read suggests the upper peninsula of Michigan benefited from this pipeline.

By the way, this is a great example of the difference between politics in North Dakota, and politics in Michigan (and New York, and California). North Dakota state government, it seems, works hard to try to come to some solution. In this case, Michigan just shut down the project without trying to find some way to solve the problem. 

**********************************

Time To Relax

Good Directions, Billy Currington

Flickr Image Of The Week? Agree 1,000% -- March 29, 2019

See an incredible update at this post. 

Look at this graphic:

Comments:

• this is liquid production comparing six named production areas and the rest of the nation
• the Permian goes from slightly less than 0.5 to about 0.80 million bpd
• Eagle Ford has huge increase on a percentage basis and despite its small footprint compares nicely with the Permian
• Anadarko: pretty much unchanged, but still, significant production
• northern Appalachia, from "zero" just a few years ago, now a major player
• Western Rockies: decreasing (regulatory issues?)
• but look at the Bakken. Wow! From almost zero back in 2012, now a significant player

Random Update Of a Hunt Well In Tier 2 Or Tier 3 -- March 29, 2019

From an earlier post:

December 25, 2018: #18682, #20747, #17318 -- need to update #17318 if it comes back on line -- update at this post)

• 29793, 1,634, Hunt, Cook 146-93-24-13H-3, Werner, FracFocus: 9.3 million gallons of water; 47 stages; 6.9 million lbs;  >

#17318 is not yet back on line, but look at #18682 production. The Werner oil field is not Tier 1. It might not even be Tier 2. If it is Tier 3, this is an incredible well for that area:

• 18682, 665, Hunt, Cook 24-13H 1, Werner, t9/10; cum 310K 1/19; 

ool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	5682	5613	7404	2725	2439	69
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	6018	6000	9405	1592	1379	91
BAKKEN	11-2018	23	4907	5278	7501	2108	1992	22
BAKKEN	10-2018	22	3124	2715	1802	598	507	88
BAKKEN	9-2018	21	905	884	1023	708	400	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	1195	1271	1382	1029	588	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	1150	1168	1433	938	496	31
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	1249	1237	1433	847	477	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	1360	1327	1481	878	450	46
BAKKEN	4-2018	26	1062	1158	1178	585	244	70
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	1294	1245	1542	1012	519	10
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	1058	1062	1224	970	483	31
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	1281	1285	1427	1256	694	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	1283	1276	1518	1117	657	0

 

Follow-Up On The Hess SC-Bingeman Wells In Truax Oil Field -- March 29, 2019

From an earlier post:

January 4, 2019: #29688, #29690, #29689, #29687;

• 29690, 1,745, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-6, Truax, t11/18; cum 7K over 8 days;

Now we can follow up these four wells.

Recent production for #29690:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	17998	17960	23499	30229	21059	9081
BAKKEN	12-2018	30	17052	16905	26104	28891	13739	15088
BAKKEN	11-2018	8	7076	6951	9591	5146	1	5145

Recent production for the other three wells:

• 29688: -- remains off line.

• 29689, t7/15; cum 161K 1/19:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	25	1413	1410	2781	3090	162	2928
BAKKEN	12-2018	27	1316	1298	1522	2299	1	2298
BAKKEN	11-2018	3	175	172	178	177	1	176
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	0	0	0	0	37	37	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	2	0	556	103	2	2	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	1646	1506	1302	6112	5775	240
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	2037	2350	1288	6580	6477	17
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	2060	1927	1091	6576	5492	994

• 29687, t7/15; cum 94K 1/19;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	4007	4010	5526	5268	4111	1140
BAKKEN	12-2018	30	4490	4472	5667	5573	4535	1017
BAKKEN	11-2018	29	3046	3116	7063	3792	1387	2396
BAKKEN	10-2018	14	701	577	2801	1088	930	138
BAKKEN	9-2018	0	0	0	0	37	37	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	66	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	9	195	350	343	1072	1042	13
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	1085	1239	1190	4768	4663	43
BAKKEN	4-2018	28	1060	993	1338	4055	3333	667
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	1210	1232	1351	4050	3951	44
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	1125	851	1385	3097	3025	18
BAKKEN	1-2018	6	246	304	431	618	603	3
BAKKEN	12-2017	19	404	505	809	1258	1070	169
BAKKEN	11-2017	26	1168	1229	1046	3797	3650	77

Wells That I No Longer Track -- Page 11

Wells being tracked, posted here. 

Page 11 of wells that have been removed from that list.

May 13, 2019: #16736, huge jump in production but only 5 days of production; in area of a lot of new fracking; need to check up on production over three or four full months. Re-fracked, 2/22/19 - 3/9/19; 6 million gallons of water; 90% water in the injection; see this note. 

February 9, 2019: 34037, 1,787, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 41-35 BX, Banks, the Aagvik wells are huge; followed elsewhere;

February 4, 2019, CLR's phenomenal Hawkinson wells; check in about three months; 20210, 20212, and many, many others;

December 18, 2018: #22114, #22113; these are MRO wells; near neighboring WPX wells that have just been fracked; see this post. Still off line 3/19; just went back on line as of 4/19; 

March 13, 2018: #22891, AB, neighboring wells fracked; back in production, 3/19; see what a full month production is in 4/19; this well is back! Almost 6,000 bbls when it came back on line 4/19; see how long production stays up; see this post;

June 12, 2016: follow-up on #31466 (an Equinor/Statoil well) in a few months; it is currently a DUC; still a DUC as of 9/18; but neighboring Whiting wells fracked in 2015 might have had an effect. The Whiting wells are the Chameleon wells in Banks oil field.  Remains TATD 8/18; TA as of 10/18; checked 1/19; no change;

January 5, 2019: #30084, off line as of 4/18; a huge well; one day of production, 2/19; update at this post; looks like it's coming back nicely, 3/19;

December 25, 2018: #17354, #20526, #23420, #20504; #27691 --

• 34921, 300, Slawson, Whitmore 4-7-6H, Parshall, t11/18; cum -- (#17354)
• 31781, 595, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 24-12PH, Park, t11/18; cum -- ; (#20526)
• 31883, 748, Whiting, Hecker 14-7PHU, Bell, t11/18; cum -- ; (#23420)
• 31780, 876, Whiting,  Pronghorn Federal 31-13PH, Park, t11/18; cum -- ; (#20504; #27691)

May 22, 2016: noted this great EOG well went inactive in late 2014; back on status 12/14; it turned out to be a small "stuffing box leak"; repaired and back on line.

• 16532, TA/IA/1,285, EOG, N&D 1-05H, Parshall, open hole/perforated frack with 2 million lbs sand, t7/07; cum 465K 2/16; off line since 9/17 (1/19); TA as of 2/19;

December 19, 2018: #25840, #25839; and, #17303 all off-line due to neighboring fracks. As of 11/18 some are starting to come back on line. Check back in April, 2019; looks like some of them will show at least a small jump in production (posted March 11, 2019); and, yes, #17303 is a Slawson Whitmore well next to two EOG wells in same section; not sure how that happened;


September 12, 2018: #19446; it is close to this one -- look at that huge IP -- #32971, 8,702, MRO,Whitebody USA 14-23H, Reunion Bay. Should be doing better. Check back in a few months; otherwise take it off this list. See this post. But #19446 not up where it should be, 10/18; only one day in 1/19; and then this, #32971, off line in 1/19 after huge months of production; will follow up; only four days in 2/19; needs to be followed for awhile; see this note;

March 11, 2018: #20035: IA; great well; off-line as of 8/16 for unknown reasons. Remains off line 2/19; back on line 3/19; and looks like a good well;

January 17, 2018: #17160; off-line since 6/17; re-frack? Nice production 5/18; off line 6/18; FracFocus -- no re-frack; still off-line 2/19;

December 3, 2017: check to see if this well goes back on-line.

• 2316, IA/204, Hess, Antelope-Madison Unit B-523, t9/59; cum 807K 10/17; goes back on line for one day 4/18; one day, 5/18; one day, 7/18; starting to see a pattern (LOL); off line as of 12/18, and goes IA;

September 28, 2018: #19889; just went off-line, 6/18; back on line; huge well; not re-fracked;  check #35135 - 35140, inclusive; a couple went PNC; back on-line 8/18; not remarkable;

December 19, 2018: 20879, 2,709, Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 147-94-1A-12-2H, McGregory Buttes, t1/14; cum 486K 10/18; back off-line 9/18; see this note; back on line 11/18; nice well but did not get back to "original" production;

October 18, 2015: follow-up production jump on #16510. There was what appears to be a halo effect in June, 2015, but there are still three more wells waiting to be fracked; it will be interesting to see how fracking these three north/south wells affect the double-lateral #16510. This well, #16510, needs to remain on the list of wells that need to be followed up (March 27, 2016). Follow-up here. Nice halo effect but not spectacular.

January 19, 2019: the XTO Little Pete Federal wells in Bear Creek, #32219 and others; great wells, went off line as of 7/18; see this post; remain off line as of 12/18; three of the five back on line, 2/19; all great wells; as of 2/19, these wells are being completed/are completed; see this post.

September 21, 2018: Apparently #34550 and #34552 have both been completed within the last couple of days. 34553 drl-->loc and 34550 SI/NC --conf --10/18;

October 3, 2018: #16990. See this post.

October 13, 2018: #17060, #23499, #23500; see this post.

October 22, 2018: 27092, 27093, 17539 -- these are great wells; one well with 600K+; recently four Austin wells fracked nearby; let's see what these three wells do after back on-line; looks like no production jump;

October 23, 2018: 17720, 399, Hess, RS-Howell-156-91-1207H-1, Ross, t2/09; cum 469K 1/19; it will be interesting to see what this well does when it comes back on line; four neighboring wells fracked; so far no evidence any halo effect;

December 10, 2018: check on the Alfred Old Dog wells in March, 2019: #21645 - 26154, inclusive, except  #26150. Updated here; huge jump in production.

January 5, 2019: #29959, great well; off line as of 10/18; back on line as of 12/18; Bakken decline continues.

June, 2, 2017: June, 2017, hearing dockets; Case 25899, Samson Oil and Gas, Foreman Butte-Madison, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit to facilitate an enhanced oil recovery pilot operation; sections 20/29-150-102, McKenzie. See this post, updated, 6/18 -- three confidential Bakken wells, but nothing going on with regard to the Madison formation as of 8/18;

February 4, 2017 update here. Sedalia has not yet drilled two new re-entry laterals off #29855 as planned.

January 9, 2019: #22189; wells far to the west were recently fracked; subtle jump in production;

Friday, March 29, 2019, T+86 -- Part 4

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

WTI: solidly above $60. Now up $1.13, up almost 2%, and trading at $60.43. OPEC basket continues to struggle, up only 12 cents and barely above $67.

The market -- early trading --

• in the past week or so, UNP has recovered everything it lost after that one crazy analyst note; open book test; it was another great opportunity to invest;
• almost everything on my watch list is green but not remarkable

EW:

******************************

Back to the Bakken

From an earlier post --

• January 14, 2019: #27964, 541, XTO, Kathy 31X-15C,  Tioga, t1/15; slow to start production; production really began 7/15; cum 54K 11/18; off line 10/18 - what's going on? Update: this well is back on line. Produced 842 bbls in January, 2019, compared to 600 bbls/month prior to going off line back in September/October 2018. Last sundry form received July 14, 2017. Recent production data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	15	842	659	1476	4167	2675	1417
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	9	123	194	363	709	633	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	526	520	1294	2597	2414	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	566	593	1310	2833	2648	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	563	586	1414	3040	2843	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	596	559	1556	3088	2897	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	649	649	1725	3443	3246	0

 

Connecting The Dots -- March 29, 2019

I could watch this all day -- okay, maybe only half a day, but this is pretty good. And it begins with C-Span. It's hard to believe she has been on Morning Joe. He used to have some "standards," I thought. Wow it would have been fun watching Johnny Carson interview her. LOL.

Enjoy.


My dad would have loved this. My dad was a strong supporter of "Thump." Actually, I think my dad was "fascinated" with Thump but didn't really care for the politics one way or the other. He just loved the theatrics.

Twitter: on another note, I have become so much more productive since un-following Scott Adams. And, as of today, I've quit following John Kemp. Wow, he was becoming over-bearing. Worse, he was getting farther and farther away from his primary job as a London-based oil analyst for Reuters. He truly suffered from TDS, also.

Friday, March 29, 2019, T+86 -- Part 3 -- WTI Solidly Above $60 -- Whoo-Hoo!

WTI solidly above $60 --

Lyft: in their IPO offering --- "... Lyft has never made a profit and may never make a profit."

Fracking: this is really quite a story. The story was sent to me by a reader. A huge thank you. Great story. From Industry Week, I only wish it were a longer.

This June will mark 10 years of unabated growth for the world’s largest economy. Many factors are attributed to what is soon-to-be America’s longest economic expansion. Rising employment, below average interest rates, and central bank stimulus each get lots of headlines. Forgotten in much of this analysis, however, is the critical contribution from America’s fracking revolution.

It is worth remembering that every major economic downturn in the U.S. for the past five decades was triggered by a significant and prolonged rise in energy prices. The OPEC embargoes of 1973 quadrupled the price of a barrel of oil and a recession followed. The Iranian Revolution of 1979 tripled oil’s price and economic output declined. The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990 once again tripled energy costs and another recession occurred. And, starting in 2005, oil prices regularly reached new record highs until their apex of $144 per barrel in July 2008. This rise in oil prices was well underway before the meltdown on Wall Street went into hyper-drive and the Great Recession began.

What we have witnessed in the past decade is the complete integration of America’s domestic energy sector into the U.S. and global economies. Led by capitalists, risk takers, and entrepreneurs, America’s energy sector has increased production by an incredible 140% over the past decade. Just last month, U.S. output exceeded more than 12 million barrels of oil per day: something no other nation, including Saudi Arabia or Russia, has ever done. Moreover, American producers can go even higher if they so wish. The era of government- controlled energy cartels is ending. And, it is quickly being replaced by the American way of doing business. Market factors such as innovation, data analysis, capital flows, and workforce development are shaping the present and future of energy much more than the geopolitical forces of the past. America is now the most influential producer of energy in the world. What happens in the fields of West Texas, the Appalachian Basin, and North Dakota is increasingly more important to global energy prices than almost any other single factor.

Friday, March 29, 2019, T+86 -- Part 2

Let's consolidate these three posts for the archives:

1. From earlier today:

Natural gas volatility in the western US: exactly what I was suggesting the other day when I asked the rhetorical question: has anyone really though this through? Link here. 

2. From March 28, 2019 -- Platts analysis here.

3. From March 27, 2019 -- did anyone think this through? We have a glut of natural gas, but like politics, it's a local issue. I'm thinking about these three facts when it comes to California:

• Diablo Canyon 1 and 2 close in 2024/2025
• when it comes to pipelines, California is an island
• California eager to go "green"

4. From October 23, 2018 -- precarious pipeline access from Canada.

5. For much better analysis of the natural gas situation in the US, see this blog. 

Friday, March 29, 2019, T+86 -- Part 1 -- WTI At $59.99 -- Do I See $60?

And so we begin:

• Citgo secures $1.2 billion loan -- link here. 
• Citgo received a renewed federal license
• 35 lenders
• sanctions? what sanctions?
• 750,000 bopd refiner
• refiner also retired $320 million and $900 million debts maturing in May/July
• with gasoline prices soaring here in the US, did the Trump administration really have any choice bu to renew the license?

Natural gas volatility in the western US: exactly what I was suggesting the other day when I asked the rhetorical question: has anyone really thought this through? Link here.

Wow! WOW collapsed. Link here. I can't remember if I have posted about WOW before. Cut-rate Icelandic airline.

• first flights took off in 2012
• passengers left in the lurch; no assistance from WOW. Wow!

And, now ready for breakfast. Oh, but before we do that, let's check the market.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Pre-market trading.

• WTI: $59.99
• DOW futures up 55 points
• Lyft goes public
• WFC Sloan retires effective immediately
• RDS-B: up about 3/4ths percent
• BA: down another $1.39
• TSLA: down about $1.22; trading at $277

Good Morning! Three Wells Come Off The Confidential List Today; WTI Should Close Above $60 Today -- Friday, March 29, 2019

IN PROGRESS

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Friday, March 29, 2019: 123 wells for the month; 343 wells for the quarter

• 35446, 2,631, WPX, Honey Locust 18-19HIL, Squaw Creek, t2/19; cum --;
• 35434, SI/NC, XTO, Emma 31X-30E, Alkali Creek, no production data,
• 35268, SI/NC, MRO, McCrory 44-35TFH, Bailey, no production data,

Active rigs:

$59.94	3/29/2019	03/29/2018	03/29/2017	03/29/2016	03/29/2015
Active Rigs	66	60	49	31	97

RBN Energy: a step-change for SCOOP/STACK gas takeaway capacity.

Midstreamers have been struggling to keep processing and natural gas pipeline constraints at bay in Oklahoma’s SCOOP/STACK plays, and the situation hasn’t gotten any easier in the past 18 months or so. Associated gas production from the Cana-Woodford has surpassed expectations, climbing 1 Bcf/d in that time to new highs near ~4.5 Bcf/d. Efforts by pipeline operators to keep pace with production gains have largely been on a piecemeal basis, mostly to tie in processing plants or modify/expand existing systems. Cheniere Energy’s Midship Project is looking to change that. The greenfield project, which received its final notice to proceed with construction from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) late last month, will level-shift takeaway capacity out of Oklahoma up by 1.44 Bcf/d in one fell swoop by the end of 2019. Today’s blog provides an update on Midship and other expansions in the region.

When we looked at associated natural gas production and the takeaway capacity situation in the crude- and condensate-focused SCOOP/STACK in central Oklahoma a couple of years ago, in early 2017,  midstream constraints for natural gas out of the plays were on the horizon but not imminent. Crude production from Oklahoma as a whole was recovering after the drilling slowdown in 2015-16 that followed the crude price crash of mid-2014. The comeback was almost entirely concentrated in the Woodford Shale’s Cana region (a.k.a. the Cana-Woodford) — the part of the Anadarko Basin underlying the 11-county SCOOP/STACK (as RBN defines the plays), and an area that had remained somewhat of a bright spot for producers even through the downturn in crude prices.