Corpus Christi — Flashback — Back To December 31, 2019

Locator: 45619INV.  

Link here.

********

Laser-Focused On Dividends

CNP raises quarterly dividend by a penny to 20 cents.

Whoo-hoo!!

And I assumed I posted this but can’t find it now. MSFT raised its quarterly dividend by over 10%. From 68 cents to seventy-five cents.

A bigger whoo-hoo!

********

Blue Horse

Eric Carle.

Why a blue horse?

Completely random or something more to the story? More later.

Feature Personality Of The Day — September 28, 2023

Locator: 45618BRAGG.  

From wiki:

Sir William Lawrence Bragg, CH, OBE, MC, FRS (31 March 1890 – 1 July 1971) was an Australian-born British physicist and X-ray crystallographer, discoverer (1912) of Bragg's law of X-ray diffraction, which is basic for the determination of crystal structure. 

He was joint recipient (with his father, William Henry Bragg) of the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1915, "for their services in the analysis of crystal structure by means of X-rays," an important step in the development of X-ray crystallography. 

Bragg was knighted in 1941. 

As of 2023, he is the youngest ever Nobel laureate in physics, having received the award at the age of 25 years. 

Bragg was the director of the Cavendish Laboratory, Cambridge, when the discovery of the structure of DNA was reported by James D. Watson and Francis Crick in February 1953. 

Among Bragg's other interests was shell collecting; his personal collection amounted to specimens from some 500 species; all personally collected from South Australia. He discovered a new species of cuttlefish – Sepia braggi, named for him by Joseph Verco.

The Gall — The Audacity — Time To Call It A Day — Internet Haiku — September 28, 2023

Locator: 45617POLITICS. 

Link here.

Link here.

Link here. Don’t stop here.

Link here. 

I need six syllables. 

EOG Doing Some Work Overs On The Wayzetta Wells In The Parshall? September 28, 2023

Locator: 45616B.

Parshall oil field, section 3-513-90, EOG must be doing some work on the old Wayzetta wells One of my readers has huge interest in these wells. 

There are two three-well pads and a single parent well. Several of them have recently come back on line after being off line for awhile. 

Note, the parent well on a single well pad:

• 16991, 1,383, EOG, Wayzetta 9-03H, Parshall, t7/08; cum 835K 7/23, one-mile / one section lateral; open hole frack; 2 million lbs sand; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	240	228	115	406	206	10
BAKKEN	6-2023	29	241	243	118	372	188	9
BAKKEN	5-2023	1	0	0	0	64	63	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	8	4	0	33	52	3	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	77	51	15	233	49	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	33	0	94	240	50	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	114	195	16	344	160	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	28	175	161	0	357	191	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	118	129	4	475	303	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	313	287	25	456	266	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	225	242	0	382	192	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	194	193	1	320	103	33
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	92	91	0	308	109	9
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	167	166	0	338	154	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	31	274	310	0	487	297	0

It's possible this well might shed some light but unfortunately nothing in the file folder:

• #26458, 1,374, EOG, Wwayzetta 45-0311H, Parshall, t6/14; cum 891K 7/23; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	2362	2419	2265	7827	7121	104
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	2241	2261	3254	7405	6740	93
BAKKEN	5-2023	24	1859	1858	3313	6568	6036	66
BAKKEN	4-2023	28	1954	1936	3177	6643	6021	78
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	2420	2356	3446	7350	6663	85
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	2260	2236	2693	6758	6224	3
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	2683	2647	3722	8680	7987	91
BAKKEN	12-2022	15	718	794	1735	3297	3039	25
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	2507	2502	3481	7657	6987	87
BAKKEN	10-2022	29	2323	2310	3241	7999	7369	81
BAKKEN	9-2022	27	1964	1974	3636	9090	8513	67
BAKKEN	8-2022	28	1563	1523	3333	8460	7881	55
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	1383	1307	4210	11875	11273	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	4	122	111	618	1509	1441	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	3	0	0	0	37	32	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	3	0	0	0	60	55	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	5	0	100	0	40	32	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	9	325	285	1307	2649	2493	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	15	891	915	1836	5134	4841	22
BAKKEN	12-2021	24	986	1008	3083	6803	6381	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	20	1115	1163	2332	6110	5738	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	2164	2163	3577	10204	9602	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	2042	2047	3456	10802	10219	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	2212	2208	3686	11197	10595	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	28	2095	2325	3697	9564	9046	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	27	2061	1985	3677	9432	8928	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	28	1960	2061	3593	9026	8495	0

One New Permit; Nine Permits Renewed: Six DUCs Reported As Completed -- September 28, 2023

Locator: 45615B. 

Active rigs: 33.

WTI: $91.76.

One new permit, #40230:

• Operator: Neptune Operating
• Field: Buffalo Wallow (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Neptune Operating has a permit for a Gustafson well, lot 2, section 5-148-100,
• to be sited 340 FNL and 2377 FEL

Nine permits renewed:

• Enerplus (6): six FB Clinton wells, Eagle Nest oil field, Dunn County
• XTO (3): three GBU Kelly wells, Grinnell oil field, Williams

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38931, 423, Slawson,
• 39123, 2,594, Grayson Mill,
• 39124, 3,103, Grayson Mill,
• 39265, 3,335, Grayson Mill,
• 39270, 3,553, Grayson Mill,
• 39314, 690, Stephens Williston DBA SEG Williston,

Monkey Island LNG -- Update -- IN PROGRESS -- September 28, 2023

Locator: 45614LNG. 

Before we get started, Monkey Island was to be re-named "Panda Island" back in 2016 but US developers couldn't close the deal. 

How did I ever miss this? I posted updates on many of these individual projects but never have I ever put the whole story together. Likewise, I'm incredibly upset with The NYT, The WSJ, the Drudge Report, ZeroHedge, Al Jazeera, The Atlantic, Vanity Fair, just to name a few that have never done a feature story on Cameron Parish, the LNG export capital of the USA.

It was a reader -- thank you very much -- that alerted me to an $8.3-billion project in the parish.

RBN Energy did a story on the "second wave" of US LNG projects, but I completely missed it and amm not sure that RBN Energy ever followed up on this story or sent me a personal note to alert me to this incredible story.

It's going to take awhile to complete this post, but I will post what I have and update as I go along. I have a major family commitment tonight so some things will be delayed. It should also be noted that I have a new crush on a new woman but she won't know, nor anyone else, because I'm happily married but it does prove to be a distraction. LOL. I wouldn't have posted that but apparently that's the "in" thing with sites like "LinkedIn" so I'm only trying to maintain "standards."

Anyway, the link and the graphic, from November 24, 2021:

US LNG export terminals are tracked here. This is probably the best source for LNG export terminals anywhere in the blogosphere that does not require a password and has no ads.

The first update: Monkey Island.

Monkey Island LNG Company.

Monkey Island LNG Company -- Company Overview.

Perhaps A Reader Might Know Why These Huge Murex Wells Are Coming Off Line -- September 28, 2023

Locator: 45613B. 

Updates

January 20, 2024: all wells back on line, no obvious explanation why wells off line for short period of time last summer (2023).

Original Post

See this very long note for background.

These are all -- or were --  huge wells, but it appears that the active wells are being taken off line as of July, 2023, time frame. 

I don't see any activity in the area on the NDIC map to suggest a reason why they might be coming off line.

Perhaps a reader might know what might be going on.

The wells:

• 16839, total depth, 13,719 feet; cum 557K 1/22;  nice jump in production; see full production profile here; cum 573K 6/23; only four days production in July, 2023; full production by 9/23;
  
• 17263, total depth, 19, 230 feet; cum 1.209 million bbls; 1/22; perhaps a small halo effect; see full production profile here; cum 1.224042 million bbls 6/23; only four days production in July, 2023; nice jump in production when back at full production, 9/23;
  
• 36888, 458, Murex, Sophia Drake 25-36H-4, Sanish, first production, 10/20; t--; cum 281K 1/22; more to follow. Frack: 48 stages; 10.05 million lbs proppant; cum 434K 6/23; no production in July, 2023; only 17 days the month before;typical Bakken decline, back on full production, 10/23;
  
• 36887, 448 (still shown as drl/A), Murex, Amber Renee 25-36H-R, Sanish, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 71K 1/22. Total depth, 20,272 feet. Frack: 47 stages; 10.25 million lbs proppants. 36887, 448, Murex, Amber Renee 25-36H-R, Sanish, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 71K 1/22. Total depth, 20,272 feet. Frack: 47 stages; 10.25 million lbs proppants; cum 189K 7/23; only eight days production in July, 2023; full production, 9/23.
• 18408, AB/1,945,  Amber Renee 25-36H, Sanish; one mile to the west of the Chandler James; t2/10; F; 821K 12/13 -- 661K in first two years; no pump; still 9K/month 1/13; IA 1/14; now back on line apparently (shown as "A" but still no new production except a bit of natural gas sold in 4/14); on January 27, 2016, I noted this well was now "AB" -- abandoned; most interesting, a note from the NDIC dated November 18, 2022 -- well was placed on AB list that date and operator must plug and reclaim the land by April 18, so perhaps ....
  

Pet Peeve -- Lazy People On Social Media -- September 28, 2023

Locator: 45612R&R.

Folks on social media asking me "what is meant by 'halo effect'?" 

LOL.

*********************
Apple Vs Epic

In an Epic suit against Apple, a case that involved about 13 separate rulings, Apple won all but one, in the Ninth Circuit Court. Epic "appealed"first, asking the US Supreme Court to take the case. That was yesterday. Today, Apple asked the same court to take the single ruling against Apple.

For the archives.

Link here.

Monthly Utility Bill -- September, 2023

Locator: 45611ELECTRICITY.

Everyone has heard:

• how hot it was in Texas this past summer; it's coming to an end;
• how the grid may not hold; it did! Easily.
  
• how expensive Texas electricity is; say what?
• my entire utility bill is less than my entire Starbucks bill (monthly statements)
• but I get "stars" with Starbucks, no “stars” from Green Mountain Energy;
• no "loyalty" rewards with Green Mountain Energy, just reliable, affordable electricity.
  

This month I made almost no effort to conserve electricity, and let my wife turn on the a/c as needed, and even wash and dry clothes as she wanted.

My wife is like her Japanese mother: doing laundry seems to be her favorite pastime, especially las toallas. She could do las toallas all day long if we had that many.

This was our electricity bill, our entire utility bill except water which we pay with our rent. We do not have natural gas.

Note the average high temperature for the current month last year (93°F) compared to this year (97°F), and compare it to the previous month (August, 2023): 105°F.

Average daily usage: 18 kWh vs 11kWh last year, and 25kWh last month.

$89.52 for September, 2023.

Okay.

Nice Halo Effect -- September 28, 2023

Locator: 45610HALO. 

The well:

• 33130, 1,220, Oasis, Peregrine 5401 42-24H, Todd, t10/17; cum 596K 7/23; nice halo effect, 6/23; over 30 days, a 15-day production of 6,869 extrapolates to 13,738 bbls:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2023	7	1923	1947	4694	1239	1183	56
BAKKEN	6-2023	15	6869	6874	15522	4545	4374	171
BAKKEN	5-2023	6	1618	1573	4110	1265	1201	64
BAKKEN	4-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	12	1403	1403	3309	1285	1285	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	3854	3854	4481	3877	3210	470
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	3894	3895	4065	3401	2707	504
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	3811	3811	5135	3276	2678	390
BAKKEN	4-2022	30	1965	1954	3966	1744	1444	170
BAKKEN	3-2022	18	1870	1871	3779	1636	1509	22
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	3282	3282	4139	2987	2743	74

Gasoline Demand In Freefall -- September 28, 2023

Locator: 45609GASOLINEDEMAND. 

I guess this is why WTI dropped below $93 today. $94 yesterday? A head fake. LOL.

Link here.

No Recession Yet -- September 28, 2023

Locator: 45608ECON. 

Tea leaves:

• "we" will feel the hard landing in early 2024; the combined consequences of auto strikes, the government shutdown; 8% mortgages, $100-oil, post-holiday credit card debt; increased streaming fees; at least two more rate increases -- either anticipated, announced, or already in effect; a DOD debacle orchestrated by GOP Senator Tuberville; a White House in crisis-mode; the meltdown of the Trump organization in NYC.
• why does the image of "Dr Seuss" flash in front of my eyes whenever I see the word Tuberville -- when it should be Mr Potato Head, I suppose;
  
• pundits will call it a recession but we won't know until historians / economists label it as such much later -- by then no one will care and it will be safe to call it;
  
• by definition, generally defined as two quarters of negative growth, but along with most things these days, "recessions" are defined by how "we" feel at any point in time;
• and right now, it's feeling like a recession according to many airheads that talk about these things
• "airheads" -- talking heads on CNBC: head shots of those talking on the air. Sort of like Rush Limbaugh's info-babes.

Any good news?

• NFL TNF tonight;
• incredibly beautiful Texas weather; ragweed season winding down
  
• Evan Williams bourbon still $11 at Total Wines and More
• Covid-19 receding faster than my hairline
• Americans in favor of vaccine — link here.
• no sign of "seasonal flu" yet. We'll know more tomorrow; and,
• the most recent 3Q23 GDP estimate -- whoo-hoo!
  

Most recent 3Q23 estimate: 4.9%

I believe this is the strongest GDP estimate / economy in the western world, and probably the universe, now that China is imploding.

Link here.

******************
The Book Page

We're nearing the end. [Later: completed, September 29, 2023  -- 44 pages of notes; 13 pages of bibliography; and, 15 pages of index.]

Lexington was born March 17, 1850.

Retired / last race: April 14, 1855. 

By 1865, his owner was worried about over-breeding and began offering Lexington on a limited basis only -- at staggering prices. 

His most fertile year had been in 1859, when, as a result off servicing eighty-three mares, he got fifty-two foals. 

But  amazingly, at the late age of sixteen in 1866, having survived the Civil War -- another story in itself -- he covered forty-nine mares with a resulting thirty-seven live births. His potency remained high thereafter. 

 Of those foals born post-Civil War, nearly all would race to success, earning Lexington recognition as America's leading sire year after year.

*********************
The Book Page

Inside the TikTok world of Jane Austen.

Link here.

*********************
The Book Page

The seventeen best book covers of September, 2023.

Link here.

I don't think I ever cared about book covers until .... The Great Gatsby. Then, Catcher in the Rye. And that's about it. But let me think about that for awhile.

Small Modular Reactors -- Another Passing Fad -- The Problem? NIMBY -- September 28, 2023

Locator: 45607NUKES. 

Folks simply don't like the idea of mini-Chernobyls in their backyard. Exhibit A: Apple went with solar, not nuclear. Besides, under Hillary, the US sold all its uranium to Russia.

Tag: small, nuclear, reactors, Chernobyl, NIMBY.

Link here. 

Ireland -- Will Rely On Oil-Fired Power Generation Til (At Least) 2030 -- September 28, 2023

Locator: 45606IRELAND. 

Amazing! I already had a "Road_To_Ireland" tag. I had long forgotten. 

Link here. Piss-poor planning, as we used to say in the military.

EIA Shenanigans -- September 28, 2023

Locator: 45605EIA. 

Remember thhe EIA shenanigans with their fudge factor to account for unaccounted oil sloshing around?

Javier Blas has caught them at it again. LOL.

Link here.

Note that in their response, the EIA did not provide the actual figures, before rounding.

Dividends Matter -- September 28, 2023

Locator: 45604INV. 

I've been saying "dividends matter" for months.

Link here.

Warren Buffett Continues to Unload HPQ -- September 28, 2023

Locator: 45603INV.

Previously:

Locator: 45559INV.

 Continues to sell HPQ. This reads like an old story, but it’s new. Link here. Direct to Barron’s.

“Same” story about a week ago.

Now, today, September 28, 2023, link here:

New Hammock -- Why Sophia Missed The Bus This Morning -- September 28, 2023

Locator: 45602ARCH.

Pet Peeve: Memes -- September 28, 2023

Locator: 45601MEMES.

Pet peeve: people who forget the US Revolutionary War, US Civil War, WWII, Kent State, Vietnam, three political assassinations in the 60s; Covid-19, transgender influencers. To name just a few.

**************************
Classic Jiu-Jitsu Move

********************
Government Shutdown?

Just don't shut down Sonic.

Government shutdown looms: Sonic won't be affected. Just saying:

• active-duty military won't get paid;
• TSA, border security, homeland security folks won't get paid
• national parks will close
• but, other than that, all's good

Road To California -- Definition Of Insanity Revisited -- September 28, 2023

Locator: 45600CA.  

Bullet train: 202 / 128,000 = 0.16%. But enough to pay workers. A reminder: active duty military in California won't be paid if the federal government shuts down.

 California gasoline prices: less expensive than one year ago, but average price back over $6 / gallon, summer/winter blend switch-over, link to AAA:

Court rules XOM can't truck oil over US Highway 101 and State Route166 -- this "battle" has been going on since 2015. Link here. This is a pretty lousy article; I'm sure there are better ones out there. I have little interest in the story.

From August 18, 2021: 

Thursday -- September 28, 2023

Locator: 45599B. 

Government shutdown looms: not much news coming out of DC. If so, it appears only a few affected:

• active-duty military won't get paid;
• TSA, border security, homeland security folks won't get paid
• national parks will close
• but, other than that, all's good

Airheads: Was there a debate last night? I missed it.

LNG: seems to be the place to be. More later.

XOM: loses again in California. California plays Lucy to XOM's  Charlie Brown.

Dividends matter: Total Energies equity shares surge.

UAW: polls show Americans support 40% pay raise for "legacy" workers; 60% pay raise for recent hires. UAW will likely expand strike locations. UAW is really, really upset with Ford, now.

WTI: surges in last 24 hours. Looks like recent surge may not hold; already talk that Saudi Arabia may relax production cutbacks.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $93.32.

Friday, September 29, 2023: 119 for the month; 321 for the quarter, 566 for the year
39565, conf, Kraken, Cass 4-9-4H,
39461, conf, CLR, Hegler 5-13H1,

Thursday, September 28, 2023: 117 for the month; 319 for the quarter, 564 for the year
38988, conf, Hess, RS-Harstad-155-91-0433H-8,

RBN Energy: high-nitrogen Permian natural gas mucks up Texas gulf coast LNG feedgas.

There’s a lot of nitrogen out there — it’s the seventh-most common element in the universe and the Earth’s atmosphere is 78% nitrogen (and only 21% oxygen). And there’s certainly nothing new about nitrogen in the production, processing and delivery of natural gas. That’s because all natural gas contains at least a little nitrogen. But lately, the nitrogen content in some U.S. natural gas has become a real headache, and it’s getting worse. There are two things going on. First, a few counties in the Permian’s Midland Basin produce gas with unusually high nitrogen content, and those same counties have been the Midland’s fastest-growing production area the past few years. Second, there’s the LNG angle. LNG is by far the fastest-growing demand sector for U.S. gas. LNG terminals here in the U.S. and buyers of U.S. LNG don’t like nitrogen one little bit. As an inert gas (meaning it does not burn), nitrogen lowers the heating value of the LNG and takes up room (lowers the effective capacity) in the terminal’s liquefaction train. Bottom line, nitrogen generally mucks up the process of liquefying, transporting and consuming LNG, which means that nitrogen is a considerably more problematic issue for LNG terminals than for most domestic gas consumers. So as the LNG sector increases as a fraction of total U.S. demand, the nitrogen issue really comes to the fore. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll explore why high nitrogen content in gas is happening now, why it matters and how bad it could get.