No Recession Yet -- September 28, 2023

Locator: 45608ECON. 

Tea leaves:

• "we" will feel the hard landing in early 2024; the combined consequences of auto strikes, the government shutdown; 8% mortgages, $100-oil, post-holiday credit card debt; increased streaming fees; at least two more rate increases -- either anticipated, announced, or already in effect; a DOD debacle orchestrated by GOP Senator Tuberville; a White House in crisis-mode; the meltdown of the Trump organization in NYC.
• why does the image of "Dr Seuss" flash in front of my eyes whenever I see the word Tuberville -- when it should be Mr Potato Head, I suppose;
  
• pundits will call it a recession but we won't know until historians / economists label it as such much later -- by then no one will care and it will be safe to call it;
  
• by definition, generally defined as two quarters of negative growth, but along with most things these days, "recessions" are defined by how "we" feel at any point in time;
• and right now, it's feeling like a recession according to many airheads that talk about these things
• "airheads" -- talking heads on CNBC: head shots of those talking on the air. Sort of like Rush Limbaugh's info-babes.

Any good news?

• NFL TNF tonight;
• incredibly beautiful Texas weather; ragweed season winding down
  
• Evan Williams bourbon still $11 at Total Wines and More
• Covid-19 receding faster than my hairline
• Americans in favor of vaccine — link here.
• no sign of "seasonal flu" yet. We'll know more tomorrow; and,
• the most recent 3Q23 GDP estimate -- whoo-hoo!
  

Most recent 3Q23 estimate: 4.9%

I believe this is the strongest GDP estimate / economy in the western world, and probably the universe, now that China is imploding.

Link here.

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The Book Page

We're nearing the end. [Later: completed, September 29, 2023  -- 44 pages of notes; 13 pages of bibliography; and, 15 pages of index.]

Lexington was born March 17, 1850.

Retired / last race: April 14, 1855. 

By 1865, his owner was worried about over-breeding and began offering Lexington on a limited basis only -- at staggering prices. 

His most fertile year had been in 1859, when, as a result off servicing eighty-three mares, he got fifty-two foals. 

But  amazingly, at the late age of sixteen in 1866, having survived the Civil War -- another story in itself -- he covered forty-nine mares with a resulting thirty-seven live births. His potency remained high thereafter. 

 Of those foals born post-Civil War, nearly all would race to success, earning Lexington recognition as America's leading sire year after year.

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The Book Page

Inside the TikTok world of Jane Austen.

Link here.

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The Book Page

The seventeen best book covers of September, 2023.

Link here.

I don't think I ever cared about book covers until .... The Great Gatsby. Then, Catcher in the Rye. And that's about it. But let me think about that for awhile.