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Wednesday, March 23, 2022

Global Warming In Check -- March 23, 2022

Today's milk carton photo: Greta. 

Link here.

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Lots Of Work Left In The Bakken -- March 23, 2022

Updates

March 24, 2022: see first comment. I brought it up here for easier searching / browsing: 

The Rolf 1 as well as The Gjorven 1 both completed drilling in the very early spring of 2011 and required significant cost and effort to get both rigs off and get the pads ready for frac.

They sit on 56th street. I can't tell you how many thousands of loads of Scoria were bladed out on 56th street between the Hartford 1 to the east going back west to Barney 1 fixing 56th street itself and the wells on it. I had two blades working on 56th street and we probably had 12 - 20 trucks hauling to us daily.

The Hartford, Gronfur and Barney were producing but shut in until we got the locations built back up to support truck traffic. If memory serves me correctly the rig on the Rolf went right down the street to the Rennerfeld 1 and the rig on the Gjorven likely went close as well so I'd have to say two rigs drilled that field.

I'm sure a lot of folks have forgot how bad that winter was and how devastating the thaw and runoff were. You had to be there for the duration to truly appreciate it.

At the same time there were rigs done drilling mudded in on the Rosenvold 1 and Gerhardsen 1 north of Wildrose in Divide County and a rig mudded in just NE of McGregor ND on the first Lawrence Omar Eco pad. Another on the Freddie 1 south of Noonan.

We worked on all these through the summer of 2011. Doing rig moves and drill pad clean offs was considerably easier the following years LOL 

Original Post 

Random look at one section in the CLR-owned Brooklyn oil field.

Brooklyn: a small, non-descript field NE of Williston; "owned" by CLR; excellent example of how an operator systematically drilled one entire field with one rig; holding the entire field by production within a year or so; has received the most comments of any field. 

Twenty-two well locations in this screen shot. Approximately half will run north, half will run south.

The older well running from the south to the north:

  • 21083, 282, CLR, Rolf 1-20H, Brooklyn oil field, t6/11; cum 444K 1/22;

Current production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2022312025190722818248775673
BAKKEN12-20213119672062239296489011220
BAKKEN11-202130206519152589906686620
BAKKEN10-202131215323122803823178130
BAKKEN9-202126167515982230525949350
BAKKEN8-202131212222312243830167111171
BAKKEN7-202131234622872572823878200
BAKKEN6-202130198919642153706066660
BAKKEN5-202131224522312214841279930
BAKKEN4-202130226622692370832779220

Jump in production back in 2019:

BAKKEN5-20192913102132871979226031198115828
BAKKEN4-201930251112526640169504383507414972
BAKKEN3-201931289352899952607466053238913797
BAKKEN2-20192823561234334998531156307910
BAKKEN1-2019301963619251588552552224915220
BAKKEN12-20185462435229230882
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-201841452658733526720
BAKKEN8-20183114891614885344130250
BAKKEN7-20182912841147691292125460

Initial production:

BAKKEN11-20113089918616253814460144600
BAKKEN10-2011311113911124311013966139660
BAKKEN9-2011271060910549323014832148320
BAKKEN8-201129737276592768949894980
BAKKEN7-2011311451214719680713969139690
BAKKEN6-20116313524561597000

The "lonely" well to the north:

  • 21086, 667, CLR, Springfield 1-8H, Brooklyn, t1/12; cum 321K 1/21;

It also had a jump in production back in 2019:

BAKKEN3-20193116055160954327521599185762605
BAKKEN2-2019281505815095436351992919276296
BAKKEN1-2019311702316908605912205120759874
BAKKEN12-2018255537514927524810946033198
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-2018252039100
BAKKEN8-2018278941124990222318720
BAKKEN7-201831114612181131278123750
BAKKEN6-201830117711591080280924040

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COVID 19 -- Chinese Flu / Wuhan Flu / SARS-CoV-2 -- Page 7

Locator: 10007COVID.
 

This is page seven: March 23, 2022 -- present.

The best historic precedent: The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic caused by the H1N1 influenza A virus. Lasting from February 1918 to April 1920, it infected 500 million people – about a third of the world's population at the time – in four successive waves. The death toll is typically estimated to have been somewhere between 17 million and 50 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.

Quick links:

Updates

August 21, 2023: lessons learned, Sweden. The hard way.

January 30, 2023: update -- President Biden has set May 1, 2023, as the date to end the two "emergency declarations." 

January 20, 2023: update -- China has quit testing; Japan re-classifies Covid-19 as "flu."

January 10, 2023: the most under-reported story so far this year.

December 4, 2022: tea leaves suggest Joe Biden will lift Covid-19 vaccine mandate for the military. The Kennedy family fingerprints are all over this one. [Later: the military mandate was lifted.]

October 21, 2022: the leading cause of death for those age 45 - 54, in 2020 - 2021.

October 17, 2022: starting a library on Covid-19.

September 2, 2022: update here. New vaccine; statistics. 

March 23, 2022: CDC quietly updates pediatric mortality data related to Covid-19. Deaths in children revised 24% lower. 

March 23, 2022: many noted "celebrities" -- most likely fully vaccinated -- have recently tested positive with minimal symptoms: former President Obama; WH press secretary Jen Psaki (at least her second time to test positive); apparently still at work (needs to be fact-checked); former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

March 23, 2022: Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine works safely in young children; ages six months to five years; company plans to seek authorization for use. This would target the last "broad" reservoir of disease. Would add another layer of protection for immunosuppressed children. 

Moderna said the vaccine’s efficacy against symptomatic infections was 43.7% in children ages 6 months to 2 years, and 37.5% in children ages 2 to 5.

The efficacy rates were lower than seen during adult testing, which took place before Omicron emerged, but comparable to the real-world effectiveness of two doses of Moderna’s vaccine found among adults during the Omicron wave. Pfizer is soon to release its own pediatric version.


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Oil: Up Again -- March 23, 2022

Noted, March 23, 2022, 9:18 p.m. CT:

  • Brent: up 1.37%; up $1.66; trading at $123.30.
  • WTI: up 1.15%; up $1.32; trading at $116.30.
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Is GasBuddy Gaslighting Us? March 23, 2022

Updates

March 24, 2022: aha! Charles Kennedy agrees with me. He is seeing what I am seeing. Link here.   

The four-week rolling average of oil products supplied, the report said, remained almost unchanged last week at 8.82 million bpd. This is a marked departure from patterns of consumption seen over the past six years with the exception of 2020, the lockdown year.

Original Post

 For the past week I've been reading reports that the "demand" for gasoline is surging.

Now, this, today, from the EIA weekly petroleum report. I'm not seeing it.

Link here.

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Three Incredible XTO DUCs Reported As Completed Today -- March 23, 2022

The Johnson Trust Federal wells are tracked here.

The wells:

  • 35049, 3,171, XTO Energy, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6B, 33-053-08575, Siverston, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 220K 1/22; frack, 8/15/21 - 9/11/21; 9.3 million gallons of water; 89.4% water by mass;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202231351883536520924102895985294222
BAKKEN12-2021315336253705267711308651276553082
BAKKEN11-2021306572465576327681540631483165557
BAKKEN10-2021266450264735387221448271420472635
BAKKEN9-20212104204169307703077
  • 35046, 3,538, XTO Energy, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6E, 33-053-08572, Siverston, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 159K 1/22; frack 8/15/21 - 8/29/21; 9.5 million gallons of wateer; 89.5% water by mass;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2022131067811006783529494282431210
BAKKEN12-20213140050402682846398672962492326
BAKKEN11-2021304663446725322121081041040983874
BAKKEN10-2021316140061356445201307891283102349
BAKKEN9-2021972607142324203242
  • 35048, 2,383, XTO Energy, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6F, 33-053-08574, Siverston, first production, 12/21; t--; cum 89K 1/22; frack, 8/15/21 - 9/29/21; 8.9 million gallons of water; 89.5% water by mass;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202231391013918227727102797984434211
BAKKEN12-2021284929048723352911141621113542696
BAKKEN11-20210000000
BAKKEN10-2021007430000
BAKKEN9-2021274301975165801658

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Home Renovation 

Putting in a new wall. 

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Four New Permits; Fourteen Permits Renewed; Three DUCs Reported As Completed; WTI Closes At $114.70 -- March 23, 2022

Active rigs:

$114.70
3/23/202203/23/202103/23/202003/23/201903/23/2018
Active Rigs3515496960

Four new permits, #38845 - #38848, inclusive:

  • Operator: Enerplus
  • Field: Mandaree (Dunn County)
  • Comment: 
    • Enerplus has permits for four new "Tailor" wells: Embroider, Patch, Seam, and Pattern; 
      • they will be located in lot 1 section 5-149-93, 
      • they will be sited between 835 FNL and 763 FNL and between 637 FEL and 714 FEL;

Fourteen new permits:

  • XTO: six Bud permits in Williams County; four Kenneth permits in Williams County; a Frisinger permit in Williams County; a Prairiee Federal permit iin McKenzie County; and two Johnsrud permits in McKenzie County;

One permit canceled:

  • 35246, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Sylven 7-11-2-158N-100W TFW, Williams County

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed, the Johnson Trust Federal wells are tracked here:

  • 35049, 3,171, XTO Energy, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6B, Siverston, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 220K 1/22;
  • 35046, 3,538, XTO Energy, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6E, Siverston, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 159K 1/22;
  • 35048, 2,383, XTO Energy, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6F, Siverston, first production, 12/21; t--; cum 89K 1/22;
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Snarky -- March 23, 2022

I haven't watched CNBC in about two months now. I quit watching when Jim Cramer became an oil perma-bear.

I wonder what he's saying today when the market was down about 2% and oil stocks were up about 1.5%.

What a day, huh? 

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This is Not Going To End Well -- March 23, 2022

From Schwab seminar today:

  • 2021, return on investment, in oil stocks: 40%
  • 2022, year to date return on investment, in oil stocks: 40%
  • there seems to be a pattern developing

Link here. 

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EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- March 23, 2022

Link here.

  • US crude oil in storage stands at 413.4 million bbls; 13% below the five-year-average.
  • US crude oil in storage decreased by a moderate 2.5 million bbls.
  • US crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million bopd, up by 92,000 bopd (yawn); crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million bopd, 9.1% more than the same four-week period last week.
  • US refineries are operating at 91.1% of their operable capacity, the second or third week they've been above 90%.
  • distillate fuel inventories decreased again; decreased by 2.1 million bbls and are now 17% below the five-year average; farmers, truckers, east coast watching.
  • jet fuel product supplied was up an astounding 43.7% compared with the same four-week period last year.

Items of note;

  • distillate fuel; and,
  • jet fuel.

Not trivial.

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Brent Over $120; WTI Trending Toward $115 -- The Market -- March 23, 2022

Updates

Later, 10:35 a.m. CT: EIA weekly petroleum report.

Later, 10:34 a.m. CT: whoo-hoo! It's a stock-picker's market. The overall market is down today, but for some folks, I would wager, their portfolio is doing very, very well. Oil just went over two milestones:

  • Brent: over $120
  • WTI: over $115
  • and, this time, "it feels real.

Later, 9:16 a.m. CT: whoo-hoo! On the day the market is down, AAPL, surprisingly, bucks the trend; breaks through $170 again (it was at $155 just a few days ago). Who would have ever thought AAPL was a trading stock? LOL. 

Later, 9:00 a.m. CT: oil

  • Brent: $120.90
  • WTI: $114.40.

The #1 reason energy stocks are not following the price of oil "up": fear of windfall profits tax.  

Essay recommendation: from today's Literary Hub. Nothing to do with the Bakken or energy. The most successful madam in (US?) history. Speaking of which:

Original Post

Diesel, how bad is it? Really bad. Link here.

What is the plural of doofus? The banks shunning oil sector leaving billions of dollars on the table, as they say. Look at this. Oil, 8:03 a.m. CT, March 23, 2022, this time "it feels real":

  • oil:
    • Brent: up 3.4%; up $3.89; trading at $119.40;
    • WTI: up 3.3%; up $3.59; trading at #113.20.
  • oil stocks of interest in pre-market trading:
    • CVX: up 1.15%; up $1.90
    • COP: up 1.62%; up $1.65
    • PSX: up 1.52%; up $1.21
    • EOG: up 3%; up $3.62; trading at $124.45; 52-week high, $123.19.
    • DVN: up 2.5%; up $1.52; trading at $62.15;
    • MNRL: down a percent; pays 4.25%;
    • ENB: up 0.64%; up 29 cents
    • EPD: up 0.86%; up 21 cents:
    • BRK-B: up a few pennies but now above $350; six months ago: $270.
    • SRE: this $124-stock now up slightly; trading at $158; 52-week range, high, $160; pays 2.9%
  • Others:
    • AAPL: down about a buck; after closing up $3.44 yesterday;
    • FSK: down every so slightly; trading at $22.29; one month ago, $21.76; six months ago: $22.36; pays 11.3%;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Disclaimer: I have a buy-and-hold position in almost all of the stocks listed above, but specifically and importantly, I have never had a position in FSK and doubt I ever will. 

Disclaimer: I have a very, very small position in Hershey but that has absolutely nothing to do with investing. I have never added to that position after the initial position decades ago.

*******************************
What "Demand Destruction" Is Not

Link here.

Definition of "demand destruction" here.

Demand destruction is a permanent downward shift on the demand curve in the direction of lower demand of a commodity, such as energy products, induced by a prolonged period of high prices or constrained supply. In the context of the oil industry, "demand" generally refers to the quantity consumed (see for example the output of any major industry organization such as the International Energy Agency), rather than any measure of a demand curve as used in mainstream economics.

Key word: "permanent."

It appears for some, "permanent" can be as short on a month or so.

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Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- March 23, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

SCHD: yearly "reconstitution" --

  • adds 14 new stocks;
  • eliminates 13; many were spinoffs
  • EOG: largest new holding;
  • most significant deletion: Emerson Electric; still a fine investment but with a dropping yield;
  • of the 14 new ones, 13 deleted, not caught my eye, except, EOG, of course

XOM: this is no dead cat bounce; next up, $95. Also at SeekingAlpha. 

Demand destruction: all of my rich friends have money. 

Tanking: MLB. Poster child: Cincinnati Reds. Link to The WSJ. 

Covid-19: last night I spent about twenty minutes looking at the data regarding active cases of Covid-19 in the US. 

I have never seen anything drop so fast. We're trending toward "zero" in most states. It is incredible. This morning, I see this headline in The WSJ: the Biden administration will stop reimbursing hospitals (and this included emergency rooms) for Covid-19 care for the uninsured. Coincidence? 
Healthcare cocers are scrambling to find new diagnostic code to replace Covid-19 that will still qualify for reimbursement for the uninsured. First guess? "Seasonal flu." Covid-19 will go away faster than anyone could imagine. This is not rocket science.

Corroboration?

  • Germany: cases are surging;
  • France: even worse; after dropping precipitously, cases now on the rise again;
  • UK: same as France; after dropping precipitously, cases now on the rise again;
  • Italy: ditto.

?

  • Assuming cases in Europe continue to spike and Covid-19 goes away in the US, one has to ask, why?

Speaking of Covid: more and more folks are disregarding federal mandates on masking in the DFW airport. I noticed that two nights ago when I picked up Olivia at the airport coming in from Phoenix after her soccer tournament.

Ya think? Investors now buy 33% of all the homes in the US. Link here. By their definition, I've invested in property in Montana. Not true. I bought the lot from my mother decades ago and will leave it for my grandchildren. I never saw it as investment property. Although, I suppose, in a way I did. Whatever. 

Agree 1,000%: Russian billionaires who have long sheltered their fortunes abroad are rushing to move their assets; they have few options. Link here.

Agriculture: China faces what could be the worst crop conditions ever because of extreme weather. Link here. More renewable energy will help. Like ethanol from corn.

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One Well Coming Off Confidential List; Oil Continues To Melt Up -- March 23, 2022

The astronomy note: what a treat. In the eastern sky this morning, Saturn, Venus and Mars are grouped together and easily seen, while Jupiter and Mercury are not far behind. If there is nothing to obstruct the horizon, one might see Jupiter, but it's likely it will "get light" too quickly and one won't be able to see Jupiter.

Hershey. I'll come back to this later. I learned two things from readers.

  • painting the tape: I was very aware of the phenomenon. I just never had any idea;
  • Hershey closed on its acquisition of Dot's Pretzels, last December, 2021; a natural fit -- chocolate-covered pretzels by Christmas, 2022?

Hedging: Hess paid $325 million to get out of a $100 / bbl hedge. Link here.

Bankers: I get a kick out of watching the banks ignoring the oil sector; "woke."

  • today, pre-market, the indices are all red; but,
  • dive deeper and oil stocks are all up;
  • Bison Interests: featured in Barrons --
    • oil investor Josh Young made 390% last year explains three stock picks. 
    • if one runs into paywall, one can pretty much guess at his three stock picks through google: SandRidge (?); Suncor (?); Journey Energy (?). 

Demand destruction: the phrase is bandied about a lot. Not defined. I don't see it. Now, Josh Young weighs in:

  • substantial demand increase for US gasoline;
  • despite higher prices, highest ever recorded demand for a Sunday.
  • we will see the EIA numbers later today.
  • my hunch: EIA won't reflect that demand.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Oil: melting up. As I said yesterday, this time "it feels real."

  • Brent: up 2.7%; up $3; trading at $118.60.
  • WTI: up 2.5%; up $2.70; trading at $112.00.

***************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$112.00
3/23/202203/23/202103/23/202003/23/201903/23/2018
Active Rigs3515496960

Wednesday, March 23, 2022: 38 for the month, 147 for the quarter, 147 for the year

  • 38298, conf, CLR, Rolf Federal 8-17H1,

RBN Energy: could Europe's gas needs revive eastern Canada's LNG export prospects, part 2. [LOL, not with the Trudeau administration.]

The European natural gas market has been in crisis this winter, with prices skyrocketing north of $100/MMBtu recently. Tight supplies, low storage levels, and a new gas-supply-security issue sparked by the war in Ukraine has many European nations, especially Germany, embarking on a crash course to increase supplies and diversify away from Russian gas imports. 
In this quest, increasing gas supplies in both the short- and long-term is a top priority and will require substantially more LNG capacity to replace — and eliminate the need for — Russian gas. With Europe’s gas-supply urgency on the rise, long-dormant prospects for exporting LNG from Canada’s East Coast are being re-examined. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the potential for repurposing the region’s only LNG import terminal into one that is geared toward exports.

Reminder: CLR reported a very nice well yesterday --

  • 36865, conf, CLR, LCU Truman 10-23H1, Long Creek, huge well for CLR; cum 78K in less than two months;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20223150959510404301980611767563855
BAKKEN12-20212227010267772271645219429192300
BAKKEN11-20210000000
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-202123083082283000
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