Week 21: May 23, 2021 -- May 29, 2021

Top story of the week:

• Joe Biden is still president.
• Brent back to $70 (okay, $69 and change).

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

• To explore or not explore.
• World "turning against" oil companies.
  

Top national non-energy story:

• PMI hits an all-time high?
• Covid-19 vaccination hesitancy continues to be a problem; and, here.
• Amazon acquires MGM catalogue.

Top national energy story:

• Fourteen percent increase in oil production month-over-month; and, here;
• Gasoline demand has a nice jump, but was it a one-off following the Colonial Pipeline shutdown?
• Cabot (Marcellus) and Cimarex (Permian) merge.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

• Bakken production forecast to decline this summer.
• Quarterly lease sales reported.
• Record low number of wells coming off confidential list.

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• Quick connects.
• Watford City airport work underway; runway expansion to be finished October 1, 2021
• $24 million project; 
• replace the existing 4,400' foot runway with a new 5,800' runway
• comparison: 
• Williston International Airport -- 7,510 feet x 150 ft
• Portland, OR (PDX): 11,000 feet x 150 ft
• DFW -- four runways
  
• longest (3): 13,400' long (required by former USAF pilots)
  
• shortest (1): 8,500' long (reserved for former US Navy pilots)
  

Operators:

• EOG with six new Liberty LR permits.
• EOG with first permits in the Bakken this calendar year.
• Whiting to add three Maki wells in the prolific Sanish.
• Slawson with additional permits in Big Bend.
• Scout Energy's Lodgepole Dinsdale just went over four million bbls crude oil cumulative.
• NP Resources to drill in the Bicentennial oil field.
• NP Resources to drill in Beaver Creek oil field.
• CLR proposed up to sixteen wells on one 2560-acre unit.

Operations:

• CLR begins to drill the Long Creek Unit; and, here.
• The May, 2021, dashboards posted.

Advantaged oil:

• Petro-Hunt Charlson well with jump in production for the second time.
• Anticipating a halo effect southwest of Williston.

Fracking:

• DUC inventory dropping.

Pipelines:

• Capline pipeline reversal; DAPL implications? 
• Has the requirement for a "revised" DAPL EIS become moot? 
• North Dakota PSC approves Bridger pipeline.
• Response to the DAPL decision.
• Expansions continue apace.

Refineries:

• Marathon to run Dickinson refinery with wind energy.
  

Natural gas:

• The natural gas conumdrum in the Bakken.

Bakken economy:

• Business is booming in Williston.
• Massive cryptomining solar project proposed for Butte, Montana.

Commentary:

• Oil and gas disrupted by technology but investors and companies still don't "get it."

TGIF -- May 28, 2021

From social media:

Memorial Day: four months into the new administration and the White House is already feeling heat on price of gasoline. White House released presser yesterday that gasoline prices this Memorial Day in line with historical gasoline prices. That may or may not be true. But that's not the perception many (most?) Americans have, and it's all about perception. Having said that, with a glut of crude oil, the real question is not why are gasoline prices "in line" with historical prices, but why aren't they lower? Link here. 

Ten Universities And/Or Colleges That Have Produced The Most Billionaire Alumni -- May 28, 2021

Forbes.  

I think these lists are useless but they are "entertaining." I would not post the list had it not included my alma mater. LOL. Nine of the ten universities/colleges are located in the US. Of the nine, only one is an "outlier" and a surprise. 

The biggest surprise:

• neither UC San Francisco (Silicon Valley) nor UCLA (medical) made the list;
• my hunch: they made the top 20
  

#9 (tie): UC Berkeley

• number of billionaires: 11
• location: Berkeley, CA
• total net worth: $82.6 billion

#9 (tie): Princeton University

• number of billionaires: 11
• location: Princeton, NJ
• total net worth: $288.4 billion
• notable: Jeff Bezos

#8: MIT

• number of billionaires: 14
• location: Cambridge, MA
• total net worth: $104 billion
• notable: the Koch brothers

#7: University of Southern California

• number of billionaires: 15
• location: Los Angeles, A
• total net worth: $58.5 billion
• notable: George Lucas

#6: Cornell University

• number of billionaires: 18
• location: Ithaca, NY
• total net worth: $65.1 billion

#5: Mumbai University

• number of billionaires: 20
• location: Mumbai, India
• total net worth: $162.8 billion

#4: Yale University

• number of billionaires: 21
• location: New Haven, CT
• total net worth: $140.8 billion
• notable: Mars candy heirs; Bass oil heirs;

#2 (tie): Stanford University

• number of billionaires: 28
• location: Stanford, CA
• total net worth: $124.4 billion
• notables: founders of Carvana, DoorDash, Robinhood, Zillow

#2 (tie): University of Pennsylvania

• number of billionaires: 28
• location: Philadelphia, PA
• total net worth: $284.8 billion
• notables: graduates of Wharton School to include President Donald Trump, Elon Musk, philanthropist Laurene Powell Jobs;

#1: Harvard University

• number of billionaires: 29
• location: Cambridge, MA
• total net worth: $207 billion
• notable: Bitcoin twins Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein; Steve Ballmer;

IEA Vs Rystad: To Explore Or Not To Explore -- May 28, 2021

The great paradoxes (?) of our time, just to name a few:

• global warming vs global cooling
• nationalism vs globalism
• law enforcement vs wild, wild west
• "drug control" vs no "drug control"
• gun laws vs no gun laws
  
• ICEs vs EVs
• fossil fuel vs renewable energy
• open borders vs closed borders
• single party political system (the California model) vs the two-party system (US, sort of)
• free speech vs controlled speech
• Romanticism (in the classical sense) vs science
• music vs noise
• western scientific thought vs critical race theory
• load funds vs no-load funds
  

Without question, two of my favorite:

• IEA vs Rystad
• ICEs vs EVs

For now:

• IEA vs Rystad

It's one thing to say we can afford no more exploration (IEA) vs a bit more exploration (the rest of us) but it's a huge jump between no more exploration (IEA) vs Rystad (seeing the need for hundreds of new oilfields).

The first, IEA: we can afford no more exploration.

• obvious winner: Saudi Arabia. Saudi doesn't do new exploration.

The second, Rystad: "we" will need hundreds of new oilfields.

• obvious winner: the math
  

Wow.

I haven't even read the article yet, but if anyone is paying attention to China, India, and Africa, the answer seems obvious.

Digression: you know, this seems like a great subject for high school debaters --

• Proposed position: be it resolved, the global economy will need hundreds of new oilields.

• Affirmative team: states the resolution, defines the terms of the debate and the presents arguments in support of the resolution.

• Opposition team: provides a rebuttal of the resolution and presents arguments opposing the resolution.

• Repeat.

Now, back to the blog.

Reuters is reporting that Oslo-based Rystad Energy sees the need for hundreds of new oilfields.

2021: Interestingly, the article does not provide the single most important number: current global demand, but let's say it is 100 million bopd in round numbers. For the record, OPEC, April 13, 2021, forecast global oil demand for 2021 to be 99.98 million bopd. One-hundred seems close enough.

Now, look at the Reuters article.

2050:

• IEA sees oil demand falling to 24 million bopd by 2050;
• Rystad sees oil demand falling to 36 million bopd by 2050.

Again, with China, India, and Africa .... not even addressed in the very short article, although Rystad Energy surely would have done their homework ...

But a global crude oil demand of even 36 million bopd by 2050 would require "thousands of new wells in existing fields as well as developing 900 new oilfields with collective resources of about 150 billion bbls of oil."

No New Permits; Twelve Permits Renewed; One DUC Reported As Completed -- May 28, 2021

Brent: $69.63

WTI: $66.32

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs (eighteen oil and gas):

$66.32	5/28/2021	05/28/2020	05/28/2019	05/28/2018	05/28/2017
Active Rigs	22	11	64	65	50

Operators with active rigs:

• CLR (6): Gordon Federal, Gale, Jensen, Pasadena Federal, Harrisburg, LCU Truman Federal, Interstellar SWD,
• Ovintiv: Rolfsrud,
• Rimrock: FBIR Guyblackhawk
• Whiting: Cvancara,
• Petro-Hunt: Jorgenson,
• Hess: GO-Braaten, EN-Manitou SWD,
• Oasis: Cliff,
• MRO: Jake,
• Enerplus: Sable,
• Iron Oil Operating: Antelope,
• Slawson: Mauser Federal,
• KODA Resources: Porter -- I believe this one is new today;
• Crescent Point: CPEUSC Burgess

No new permits.

Twelve permits renewed:

• XTO (7): three GBU Kelly permits in Williams County; four GBU Wayne permits in Williams County; GBU -- Grinnell-Bakken Unit;
  
• Hess (3): three BB-State A permits in McKenzie County;
• Whiting: a Littlefield permit in Mountrail County;
• Lime Rock Resources: one Emerson permit in Dunn County

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 29504, drl/A, Whiting, Denowh 31-29-1H, Glass Bluff, first production, 3/21; t--; cum 19K after 34 days; wow, talk about out in the middle of nowhere, about four miles south of the river, two miles east of the Yellowstone; 

• Parent well:
  

• 20185, 607, Whiting, Oakland 151-103-29B-32-1H, Glass Bluff, t4/12; cum 182K 3/21;

• Singleton one mile west:
  

• 20830, 95, Murex, Kimberly Dawn 30-31H, Glass Bluff, t10/11; cum 197K 3/21;

• Singleton one mile east:
  

• 20381, 566, Murex, Daron William 28-33H, Glass Bluff, t11/11; cum 145K 3/21;

Fourteen Percent Increase In US Crude Oil Production, Month-Over-Month, March/February, 2021

Link here.

It just shows how quickly US shale can "turn on a dime," as they say. If WTI moves to $80 we will see similar jumps in production. In the Bakken sixty days from spud to market, and during that sixty days, operators can open the spigots, and and frack the DUCs.

See also the "914's."

Covid-19 Vaccination Update -- May 28, 2021

CDC data here.

 For a Friday report, the lowest number of vaccinations given in the past 24 hours, ever, going all the way back to when I started tracking January 22, 2021. 

The high for a Friday report: 3,975,059 vaccinations.

The most recent Friday report: 1,375,171 vaccinations, or 34.6% of the high.

No wonder the states are offering monetary incentives for folks to get their vaccinations. 

	A	B	C	E
	Total Doses Administered	Number of People Receiving At Least One Dose	Fully Vaccinated	Delta: Difference in daily doses from previous day
May 28, 2021	292,099,778	166,388,129	133,532,544	1,375,171
May 21, 2021	281,595,351	161,278,336	127,778,250	2,198,101
May 14, 2021	268,438,666	155,251,852	120,258,637	1,842,180
May 7, 2021	254,779,333	150,416,559	110,874,920	2,805,581
April 30, 2021	240,159,677	144,894,586	101,407,318	2,799,184
April 23, 2021	222,322,230	137,723,889	91,175,995	3,374,587
April 16, 2021	202,282,923	127,743,096	80,609,818	3,965,883
April 9, 2021	178,837,781	114,436,039	68,202,458	3,958,065
April 2, 2021	157,606,463	101,804,762	57,984,785	3,975,059
March 26, 2021	136,684,688	89,559,225	48,695,172	3,379,393
March 12, 2021	101,128,005	65,965,305	35,000,159	2,924,112
Jan 22, 2021	19,107,959	16,243,093	2,756,953

EIA's Monthly Crude Oil And Natural Gas Production -- March, 2021, Data

Link here. 

A reader alerted me to the release with these comments, edited slightly:

• big rebound from the February, 2021, freeze. As expected. the only people surprised were the peak oilers, who confounded the freeze with real decline. Production at low 11 MM bopd.
• New Mexico is now producing more than North Dakota. 
• need to go kick your Bakken boys in the butt. No rest for the wicked. Get that rig count up!
• Texas was up almost a million bopd. Duh. But still...fun to kick the peak oilers with that rebound.
• GOM at 1.9 million bopd. More salt in the peak oiler wounds.
• there was a also a huge rebound in natural gas, following the freeze, or should we say, following the thaw? Not big long term increase. Still...irks the peak oilers.
  

The only thing missing is M. King Hubbert's name. LOL. 

For me the most interesting story coming out of the Bakken right now -- and really not having anything to do with the most recent "914" is the number of EOG permits announced by the NDIC this past week. It's possible EOG is not the only operator that owns minerals in this area, and there was pressure by other operators, "if EOG isn't going to drill this area, we will."

May 25, 2021	38324	L			EOG	Liberty LR 119-2320H	MNT	Parshall
May 25, 2021	38325	L			EOG	Liberty LR 56-2317H	MNT	Parshall
May 26, 2021	38326	L			EOG	Liberty LR 59-2320H	MNT	Parshall
May 26, 2021	38327	L			EOG	Liberty LR 121-2320H	MNT	Parshall
May 26, 2021	38328	L			EOG	Liberty LR 123-2320H	MNT	Parshall
May 26, 2021	38329	L			EOG	Liberty LR 62-2329H	MNT	Parshall
May 26, 2021	38330	L			EOG	Liberty LR 66-2629H	MNT	Parshall
May 26, 2021	38331	L			EOG	Liberty LR 125-2629H	MNT	Parshall

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The Literature Page 

Joshua Slocum, b. February 20, 1844 – d. on or shortly after November 14, 1909:

• the first person to sail single-handedly around the world
• a Nova Scotian-born, naturalised American seaman and adventurer, and 
• a noted writer
• in 1900 he wrote a book about his journey, Sailing Alone Around the World, which became an international best-seller; on line;
  
• he disappeared in November 1909 while aboard his boat, the Spray, annual sail from NY/Boston to Cayman Islands
  

The voyage:

• departed, April 24, 1895
• returned three years later, 1898, during the first year of the Spanish-American War

Amazon: it's funny how things work out. I have read closely the first few chapters of Sailing Alone Around The World and quickly read through the rest of the book. 

The book is so full of sailing jargon I wondered if an annotated version existed. And there it was -- an annotated version. And, of all things, it was just published March 6, 2021 -- brand new. And at $10 it was "free" with the points I have accumulated on the Amazon credit card.

The book, ordered today, Friday, May 28, will arrive Sunday, May 30, on a three-day Memorial Day weekend. I don't like orders to arrive on a Sunday or a holiday, so I asked Amazon to deliver the book on Tuesday, June 1, which they said they will do. What a great operation. 

Burnaby -- May 28, 2021

From my in-box this morning:

So you asked, and although this is not a purely EV truck manufacturer, you can't build an EV truck without an engine....but HV might be the future of the future.

Fuel Cell & Clean Energy Solutions | Ballard Power

From google:

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The Literature Page

Pop quiz: who is/was Alexander Selkirk?

Extra credit: name each of the three main volcanic Juan Fernandez Islands.

Brent -- May 28, 2021

Now that the early morning economic data is out, the only number I'm watching all day: Brent. 

Three-day weekend ahead of us.

PMI -- May, 2021

Holy mackerel: The Chicago PMI came in at 75.2 vs 68 estimate. Wow, incredible. 

Link here.

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That $6 Trillion Budget

Yesterday, I rhetorically asked:

One now wonders, with Biden's proposed $6 trillion budget, if the US economy could literally dwarf/drown the EU? My hunch: European leaders are watching "this stuff" closely.

someone reported if it's passed, Biden's $6 trillion budget would be the largest annual budget since WWII; does that mean in today's dollars, the US budget during WWII was bigger?

Right on cue, twitter provided the answer this morning.

See this link. 

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- May 28, 2021

Holy mackerel: The Chicago PMI came in at 75.2 vs 68 estimate. Wow, incredible.

Today's market: will be held back by Boeing. 

Victory declared: president will make the announcement later today. 

6: The government will spend close to, probably more than, $6 trillion even if "it does nothing." The Biden number is getting a lot of headlines, a lot of ink but in the big scheme of things he was mostly pointing out what was already baked in. However, and this is the thing, how that $6 trillion is spent is the real story.

6. Yesterday I rhetorically asked whether the US budget was simply going to swamp the rest of the world, particularly the EU. Wiki has the 2020 estimates. 

California: a staggering $75.7 billion surplus. 

California's coffers are bulging thanks to the high-flying Silicon Valley, surging stock market and a large share of professionals who were able to continue working remotely during Covid-19. The state has a progressive income tax structure that leans heavily on top earners, allowing the state to enjoy record revenues despite widespread job losses in the travel and service industries that have kept California's unemployment rate among the nation's highest. 

California is due to receive $26 billion in direct federal aid due to Covid-19. I guess that would put the budget surplus at a staggering-staggering $100 billion. 

Governor wants to sent $600 checks to all California residents; additional $500 for those with children.

Budgets: for comparison.

• Taiwan: $94 billion
• Ireland: $93 billion

Utilities: top three utilities stocks with best value, fastest growth, and most momentum, link here.

• SRE, UGI, and Entergy

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Brent: $69.92.

WTI: $67.49.

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$67.49	5/28/2021	05/28/2020	05/28/2019	05/28/2018	05/28/2017
Active Rigs	20	11	64	65	50

No wells coming off the confidential list.

RBN Energy: how Covid-19 reshaped the future of North American LNG projects.

Over the past year, we have witnessed a sort of slow-motion meltdown among the second wave of North American LNG export projects. Appetite for new LNG expansions was already waning due to oversupply even before the pandemic affected demand, but COVID-19 brought project developments to a standstill. Offtake agreements have expired, final investment decisions (FIDs) delayed, and projects have lost funding or been officially put on hold or even cancelled. Just one project, Sempra’s ECA LNG in Mexico, was able to reach an FID last year, and with the pandemic still raging, for a while it looked as if that would be the last project in North America to take FID in the foreseeable future. It’s abundantly clear that many more of the remaining proposed projects will be postponed indefinitely, and probably never be built at all. However, the news isn’t all bad. With the worst of COVID-19’s impacts on international gas demand appearing to be over and the ongoing extended run of high global gas prices, all eyes are back on the second-wave projects that are in various stages of pre-FID development. The pandemic may have forced a culling of the proposed projects, but those near the top now have a clearer path ahead. In fact, several projects could realistically achieve FID in the next few years. Today, we begin a short series providing an update on the second-wave projects.