IEA Vs Rystad: To Explore Or Not To Explore -- May 28, 2021

The great paradoxes (?) of our time, just to name a few:

• global warming vs global cooling
• nationalism vs globalism
• law enforcement vs wild, wild west
• "drug control" vs no "drug control"
• gun laws vs no gun laws
  
• ICEs vs EVs
• fossil fuel vs renewable energy
• open borders vs closed borders
• single party political system (the California model) vs the two-party system (US, sort of)
• free speech vs controlled speech
• Romanticism (in the classical sense) vs science
• music vs noise
• western scientific thought vs critical race theory
• load funds vs no-load funds
  

Without question, two of my favorite:

• IEA vs Rystad
• ICEs vs EVs

For now:

• IEA vs Rystad

It's one thing to say we can afford no more exploration (IEA) vs a bit more exploration (the rest of us) but it's a huge jump between no more exploration (IEA) vs Rystad (seeing the need for hundreds of new oilfields).

The first, IEA: we can afford no more exploration.

• obvious winner: Saudi Arabia. Saudi doesn't do new exploration.

The second, Rystad: "we" will need hundreds of new oilfields.

• obvious winner: the math
  

Wow.

I haven't even read the article yet, but if anyone is paying attention to China, India, and Africa, the answer seems obvious.

Digression: you know, this seems like a great subject for high school debaters --

• Proposed position: be it resolved, the global economy will need hundreds of new oilields.

• Affirmative team: states the resolution, defines the terms of the debate and the presents arguments in support of the resolution.

• Opposition team: provides a rebuttal of the resolution and presents arguments opposing the resolution.

• Repeat.

Now, back to the blog.

Reuters is reporting that Oslo-based Rystad Energy sees the need for hundreds of new oilfields.

2021: Interestingly, the article does not provide the single most important number: current global demand, but let's say it is 100 million bopd in round numbers. For the record, OPEC, April 13, 2021, forecast global oil demand for 2021 to be 99.98 million bopd. One-hundred seems close enough.

Now, look at the Reuters article.

2050:

• IEA sees oil demand falling to 24 million bopd by 2050;
• Rystad sees oil demand falling to 36 million bopd by 2050.

Again, with China, India, and Africa .... not even addressed in the very short article, although Rystad Energy surely would have done their homework ...

But a global crude oil demand of even 36 million bopd by 2050 would require "thousands of new wells in existing fields as well as developing 900 new oilfields with collective resources of about 150 billion bbls of oil."