ICYMI: wells coming off the confidential list this next week, posted earlier.
Focus on Fracking: posted.
Off the net. Good luck to all. See you in the a.m.
I have to do some testing.
Al-qaeda's second-in-command: taken out. As in "killed."
Bookstores:
ACB: vote tomorrow evening, 7:00 p.m. ET; Monday, October 26, 2020.
Biden to form committee to study benefits / risks of "packing the court." He would need to appoint an even number of justices, two or four. Thirteen justices seems a bridge too far, but eleven justices seems about right; in line with the more common 12-member courts around the world.
Focus on Fracking should be posted later this evening. Link here.
Victor Davis Hanson on the last debate. No question Victor Davis Hanson is correct, but will it matter? Some may be asking: could Joe Biden literally implode in the last two weeks?
Ben Yagoda: the author of About Town: The New Yorker and the World It Made, is/was the director of the University of Delaware's journalism department.
William Shawn: editor of the New Yorker, and J. D. Salinger's editor, loyal defender, and close friend.
Roger Angell: a longtime New Yorker staff writer and editor.
Roger Angell: When he first came to the [New Yorker], Salinger worked with Gus Lobrano [and William Maxwell], but William Shawn took over [after Lobrano's death] ... When I came to the fiction department, none of the editors in the department dealt with Salinger -- only Shawn.
Ben Yagoda: What elevated Shawn professionally was World War II. Shawn used the war to transform the magazine from a sophisticated humor magazine into a magazine that published serious journalism, culminating in the publication of John Hershey's "Hiroshima," which occupied one entire issue. It was shepherded by Shawn. He was the one who germinated the idea with Hershey, argued it should take up the entire issue, edited it, and brought it into print. That elevated Shawn in the halls of the New Yorker and in the literary world.
-- Salinger, David Shields and Shane Salerno, c. 2013, p. 338.
Readers may recall this article from The WSJ regarding the new iPhones.
Now, from The WSJ, but this time by Nicole Nguyen: the case for a $700 smartphone. The sub-head:Four-figure phones have become standard, but the best value can be found in less-expensive models that still deliver great cameras, long-lasting batteries and future-proof 5G connectivity.
So, let's see what she has to say.
Maybe you need the best of the best, or maybe even $700 is too high. The analytics firm IDC forecasts that due to pandemic-related belt tightening, smartphone spending will be reduced, with the $400 to $600 range as this year’s fastest-growing category. Apple’s iPhone SE, Samsung’s Galaxy A51 and Google’s Pixel 4a are all $400 or less.
Ms Nguyen then goes through the new models, providing thoughts on what you gain, and what you give up if you settle for the "midtier" phones.
The midtier phones she reviews: the Apple iPhone 12 Mini; the Google Pixel 5; and, the Samsung Galaxy S20 FE.
To her credit, Nguyen doesn't dwell on comparing apples and oranges. For the most part, she doesn't compare the Apple product with the Androids. She compares midtier phones within their own families. This is incredibly important. Good for her.
Things that caught my eye:
This is an exception to the "comparing Apples and oranges comment above: Apple’s official policy supports repair service and software updates for five years from the device’s release date. Samsung and Google guarantee just three years of updates. That's huge.
Ms Nguyen does not show any preference. The article ends with the upgrades and downgrades for each of the three phones but does not make a recommendation.
I think she realizes that folks, by now, have decided to which family they belong: the Apple family or the Android family. She is simply letting the buyer know how the midtier phone in each respective family compares with the least expensive model and with the most expensive model.
For Apple:
Wisconsin out of control.
Covid-19: weekly new cases per 100,000 people, as reported by Johns Hopkins University, last updated at 10:50 a.m. today, October 25, 2020. North Dakota is #1 in the nation for new cases per 100,000 followed a bit further back by South Dakota and even further back, #3, Wisconsin:
The big story tomorrow -- until something bigger comes along -- will be the Chinese flu pandemic, surging yet again, and the White House throwing in the towel on attempts to control it.
My primary source of numerical data is this site. At that site, you can click on "USA" and get data for individual states.
The US population: 330 million.
Number of Covid-19 cases to date, in the US: approaching 9 million.
9 / 330 = 3%.
Herd immunity: 65% to 70%, with or without a vaccine.
Spanish flu: the meme -- one-third of the world's population became infected with the virus, back in 1918 - 1920. One-third is 33.3%. That's a long way from 3%.
At a million new cases in the US each month, the current rate:
I'm back in my Clarissa stage. Clarissa: A History of a Young Woman, Samuel Richardson, 1748. My notes on Clarissa at this post.
The 100 best novels written in English. Link to The Guardian, August 17, 2015. #4, Clarissa by Richard Samuelson.
After two years of careful consideration, Robert McCrum has reached a verdict on his selection of the 100 greatest novels written in English.
The 100 greatest novels of all time. Link to The Guardian, October 12, 2003. #1, Don Quixote by Miguel De Cervantes.
A lot of unknowns. Thinking out loud. Not ready for prime time. Never will be. Too many unknowns. But some great links to get one started. Some of the links from readers. Thank you.
A gazillion links out there. Here are a few:
Data points from the second link, New Mexico:
Alaska: link, again;
North Dakota, same link:
Wyoming: 22%
New Mexico: 20%
Figures do not include revenue from corporate and personal income taxes, property taxes, and royalties. Further, oil production businesses may support other jobs in the local communities where they operate.
My hunch, for North Dakota, factors affecting royalties for mom-and-pop mineral owners:
US auto sales show signs of recovery: link here.
New auto sales fall 16.3% through third quarter. Link here.
GDP 35% growth in 3Q20? https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/23/trump-predicts-35-growth-in-q3-were-coming-back-stronger/.
GDP Now estimate for 3Q20: concurs with link above. Graphic pending. Will be released October 29, 2020, just before the election (though by then most of the dead will have already mailed in their ballots, along with felons, and those looking to vote more than once).
Recessions are a good thing:
Europe may still be mired in a deep economic slump, but the region’s truck drivers are hauling bumper volumes of goods across the continent as online shopping surges, offering a rare boost to oil demand.Girteka Logistics, owner of Europe’s largest fleet of trucks, said it will deliver about 800,000 full loads this year, up about 10% on 2019. The company has more than 7,000 vehicles, moving everything from ice cream to electronics.
The freight surge is being driven by a boom in e-commerce during the coronavirus outbreak, said Kristian Kaas Mortensen, director of strategic partnerships at Girteka. While individuals have had their movement limited by virus restrictions, the Vilnius, Lithuania-based firm has been hauling bumper volumes of consumer goods, food and pharmaceuticals, often for home consumption.
“The money that is not going to Spain on vacation, or on a business trip, is going to another spending,” said Mortensen. “That happens to be a spending that benefits the transport patterns we are operating in.”
And with that, I'm outta here. Some shopping. Sunday is my only free day to go shopping. Then some reading. NASCAR. Football. Busy, busy, busy day.
NASCAR: later this afternoon. Link here.
Just to be clear: I am blown away by Apple TV+. I can watch NFL games I would otherwise not see. This $4.99 / month purchase will lead to a $1600-retina-27-inch-iMac.
How 'bout them Cowboys? At the half, 22- 3, losing to the Washington No-Names. Ezekiel ("Pat, I'd like to buy an 'e'") Elliott, 45 yards on 11 carries. Dalton taken out after a "thuggish" hit.
Human behavior: this is not rocket science.
Even the Dallas-WNN play callers are noting that, for the most part, the Cowboys defense is pretty much "just standing around." Think about it. This is not rocket science.
Like every other NFL player, every Cowboy player is haunted by Covid-19.
On top of that, every Cowboy player has seen how their "queen bee" can be injured in a split second, and not just an injuy that takes their quarterback out for a game or two, but for the entire season. It's very possibly a career-ending injury. The Cowboys were not doing well when they had their star quarterback. Every Cowboy now knows that this season is over. Way over. If you were a Cowboy player, would you play 110% risking a career-ending injury? The Cowboys are simply going to phone it in for the rest of the season. They're not going to win one for the gipper.
The worst case scenario for any Cowboys player? Being traded at the end of the season. My hunch: most are hoping.
Consider the source: oil, natural gas industry said to be "exploiting federal relief through historic borrowing spree." Link here. Say what? Wasn't that the intent? Whatever. Graphic pending.
The oil and natural gas industry has embarked on a lavish borrowing spree this year, underpinned by a federal bailout of corporate debt markets in response to Covid-19.
Oil and gas companies, already in dire financial straits before the pandemic, have issued $99.3 billion in debt in U.S. markets since March 23, said the report authored by nonprofit organizations Friends of the Earth, Public Citizen and BailoutWatch.
On that date, the Federal Reserve Bank, aka the Fed, announced it would purchase corporate bonds for the first time ever through a program called the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF) as an emergency measure to keep financial markets afloat amid the pandemic-driven economic downturn.
The oil and gas industry, “heavily indebted and struggling long before the coronavirus, is now benefitting substantially from the central bank’s bailout of the corporate debt markets,” researchers said.
An analysis of Securities and Exchange Commission filings and market data “reveals troubled companies, some on the brink of insolvency, exploiting the federal response to Covid-19 to secure a lifeline…The borrowing includes a wave of refinancing often resulting in later payment deadlines, substantially lower borrowing costs, or both. “In effect, the Fed is forestalling the demise of an industry that has always relied on government largesse.”
The Fed had purchased debt from 19 operators since the March announcement, researchers said. Those companies have since sold more than $60 billion in new bonds to investors, or about 60% of the debt issued during the period.
Of the 19 companies, 12 have received credit rating downgrades of their short-term debt, long-term debt, credit or default ratings since March, researchers said. These firms include onshore heavyweights EQT Corp., Marathon Oil Corp. and Continental Resources Inc.
“The first three quarters of 2020 represent the highest level of debt issuance for that period since at least 2010,” researchers said. “This surge in borrowing was made possible by the Fed’s promise to purchase large quantities of corporate debt.”
At the end of August, the Fed held an estimated $355.5 million in fossil fuel bonds, researchers said, up $40 million from July.
The bonds were issued by companies ranging from integrated majors such as ExxonMobil and BP plc, independents including Apache Corp. and Continental, and midstream operators like Enterprise Products Partners LP and Williams, the authors said.
Cimarex next? Link here.
China oil imports: Brazil now #3 -- US drops to #4. Link here.
Brazil jumped to China’s third-biggest crude oil supplier in September, import data showed on Sunday, as China’s independent refiners scooped up cheap supplies of the South American exporter’s relatively high quality oil. So, it's Saudi Arabia, Russia, Brazil, and the US. Link here for the numbers.
Filling space: this story / link is not even necessary. I've talked about it so many times before, but this page needed a few more stories to make the Sunday "notes from all over" quota. So, here it is: "Saudi Arabia is suffering the consequences of its failed oil price war." Link here.
Or as Elon Musk would say: ludicrous! US-made "hypercar" hits 331 mph on Nevada highway. This is a production car, folks. Link here.
Amazon Prime day was a win-win for small businesses and customers;
Amazon ranks #2 on Forbes world's best employers list; at the link, scroll down....
the Forbes list for 2020 at this link; #1 -- President Trump's White House -- just joking!The top five:
- #1: Samsung Electronics
- #2: Amazon
- #3: IBM
- #4: Microsoft
- $5: LG
Other of note:
- #6: Apple
- #8: Alphabet (Google)
- #20: Costco Wholesale
- #22: Honda Motor
- #26: Saudi Aramco
- #34: Ford Motor
- #35: Daimler
Not making the top 50:
- GM
- Tesla
- the Democratic National Committee
- International Assets Group (it may or may not be in existence any more)
- Coca-Cola (#408), but PepsiCo did make the list
- fast food industry appears not on the list
Speaking of which: apparently the entire White House presidential staff tested positive for Covid-19 some weeks ago. Other than the president, did anyone else in that group end up in the hospital? Has their quarantine period ended? Mainstream media not talking about it.
Redundant, as they say in England: Sam's Club to deploy robot cleaners for all US stores amid move to become more and more "contactless." Link here.
Blackout: PG&E planning to blackout 386,000 customers in California. Again. Link here.
Blackout, part 2: supposedly retired, the F-117 has been spotted flying in southern California. Big story; little press.
Apple: lately I've been raving about "everything Apple," and most recently, Apple TV+. Now it appears, Apple TV+ may do the unthinkable: buy the rights to the next James Bond movie that has been delayed due to Covid-19. Twice now, the release has been pushed back. Apple TV+ ready to purchase it, some say. Might it cost Apple $1 billion? Possible. Link here. Many, many story lines here.
Apple: although social media suggests the app isn't all that accurate, the new iPhone 12 Pro allows you to measure the height of individuals. Link here. Social media suggests other measurements would also be of interest.
The project will be the largest of its kind in the world. Link here. Also here. This project is to "save the mountain lion from extinction."
How many mountain lions have been killed on the highway in this area?
The article says "several."
In the newspaper business we have one, two, several, a dozen, and scores. So, several is somewhere between three and eleven mountain lions have been killed on the highway in this area over decades of monitoring.The critters that will really appreciate this: rodents, rats, skunks.
Meanwhile, after decades of trying to figure out how to save the endangered salamander in the same general area -- California -- the state legislature finally found a mechanism. Simply pass a law stating that it's okay to "do the project"-- simply look the other way, ignore the problem, move on, whatever. Just "do the project" for heaven's sake. And remember, this is the most progressive, environmentally-friendly, anti-growth state government in the US.
This is an interesting article. Look how long the article is. See if you can find how the state legislature threaded the needle on this one. This is a great example of a press release by the environmental community looking like a news story. Some environmental entity simply "faxed" this story to news outlets hoping someone would pick it up and publish it. The montereycountyweekly did.
Definition of "incidental take": US Fish & Wildlife Service.
Updates
October 26, 2020: this is interesting. In my original post, I suggested two errors in that single play, but immediately following the game, the announcers said one error would be on the outfielder. But now, in The WSJ the writer suggests two errors, and in the second video clip below, one analyst suggests three errors. Maybe some "unofficial" errors and some "official" errors.
Game 4:A little after 11 p.m. here on Saturday, the Dodgers appeared on the verge of a romp. Just one strike separated them from a 3-1 series advantage all but ensuring that the best team in the major leagues would finally emerge as champions after so many October disappointments. Then Brett Phillips, the last player on the Rays’ bench, punched the single into center field that, coupled with two Dodgers errors, turned him into one of the most improbable postseason heroes ever.
October 26, 2020: for those who missed it on YouTube --
Original Post
First things first: one strike away from a win!!!!
Game 4, World Series: incredible finish. I'm sure the last thirty seconds of the game will be on YouTube. This finish will rank among the most incredible finishes in any sport ever. If one reads the backstory, it may simply be the most incredible. Link here to the description.
Brett Phillips went 17 days without seeing a major-league pitch before Saturday night. The Tampa Bay Rays left him off their roster for the last round of the playoffs, so he appointed himself as an unofficial coach, which really meant he acted as a glorified cheerleader. His responsibilities in that role largely consisted of holding up a dry-erase board with helpful words of encouragement for his teammates as they clawed their way to the pennant.
So naturally, in the sort of poetic twist that baseball so often provides, Phillips found himself at the plate in Game 4 of the World Series with the fate of the season on the line. In that moment, even he couldn’t help but marvel at the absurdity that led to Rays manager Kevin Cash sending him up there at all.
“I’m sure he was probably like, ‘Ohhhhhhhhhhh no,’” said Phillips, as he attempted to describe the insanity that transpired in the Rays’ stunning 8-7 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers that evened this best-of-seven set at two wins apiece. “‘Oh no, we’ve got to go to the last guy on the bench?’” [. One player was given one error; in fact, there should have been two errors, but perhaps the rules state only one error can be awarded in any one play. I don't know. But there were two errors. A missed catch and a botched throw.]
Ratings: the most talked-about story in social media regarding sports this year -- television ratings. Mainstream media and the sports networks are avoiding the issue but the discussion is rampant on social media and non-mainstream media. Recent post on the blog noted the all-time record lows for the World Series. Now, a series of links noted overnight:
Covid-19 playing havoc with television scheduling: huge game scheduled for today may be postponed. Link here.
Key Raiders players face Covid-19 isolation before their big game. The NFL moved Las Vegas’s Week 7 game against Tampa Bay off of prime time in case the matchup is postponed with the Raiders’ starting offensive linemen in quarantine
San Francisco: time for Goldman to "securitize" empty offices in San Francisco. Link here. The statistics are much worse than the chart would indicate. The "vacant" offices are those offices being reported as vacant. Many, many more offices are still being rented but the office workers are working from home.
NYC: I haven't watched any network or cable news in months, including CNBC, but based on twitter tweets, it's my impression that CNBC is not reporting this, from twitter this morning:
And, how much more ridiculous can it get? Also from twitter this morning:
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 8-2020 | 19182 | 20851 |
| 7-2020 | 16752 | 17965 |
| 6-2020 | 22924 | 29862 |
| 5-2020 | 31675 | 41519 |
| 4-2020 | 989 | 4198 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 8-2020 | 11323 | 14371 |
| 7-2020 | 14731 | 18814 |
| 6-2020 | 21664 | 30252 |
| 5-2020 | 37206 | 46762 |
| 4-2020 | 3709 | 7027 |
Six months ago, April, 2020, the Chinese flu pandemic panic begins to peak -- efforts to "flatten the curve" in full force. Everything comes to a halt, including new drilling in the Bakken.
New wells reporting this week, link here:
Six months ago, April, 2020, the Chinese flu pandemic panic
begins to peak -- efforts to "flatten the curve" in full force.
Everything comes to a halt, including new drilling in the Bakken.
New wells reporting this week, link here:
Monday, November 2, 2020: 1 for the month; 25 for the quarter, 690 for the year
None.
Sunday, November 1, 2020: 1 for the month; 25 for the quarter, 690 for the year
35808, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hagen 144-98-12D-1-3H, Little Knife, no production data,
Saturday, October 31, 2020: 24 for the month; 24 for the quarter, 689 for the year
None. Spooky, huh?
Friday, October 30, 2020: 24 for the month; 24 for the quarter, 689 for the year
36796, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland-LE-156-94-3328H-1, Alkali Creek, big well;
Thursday, October 29, 2020: 23 for the month; 23 for the quarter, 688 for the year
36938, conf, Hess, EN-Sorenson B-155-94-3526H-7, Alkali Creek, big well;
Wednesday, October 28, 2020: 22 for the month; 22 for the quarter, 687 for the year
None.
Tuesday, October 27, 2020: 22 for the month; 22 for the quarter, 687 for the year
32425, conf, BR, Cleetwood 21-27TFH-A, Elidah, no production data,
Monday, October 26, 2020: 21 for the month; 21 for the quarter, 686 for the year
None
Sunday, October 25, 2020: 21 for the month; 21 for the quarter, 686 for the year
37426, loc/NC, Slawson, Orca Federal 2-23-26H, Big Bend, no production data,
37239, loc/NC, Slawson, Loon Federal 5 SLTFH, Big Bend, no production data,