The Big Story Tomorrow -- Until A Bigger Story Comes Along -- October 25, 2020

Wisconsin out of control.

Covid-19: weekly new cases per 100,000 people, as reported by Johns Hopkins University, last updated at 10:50 a.m. today, October 25, 2020. North Dakota is #1 in the nation for new cases per 100,000 followed a bit further back by South Dakota and even further back, #3, Wisconsin:

• The leaders:
• #1: North Dakota; 643 new cases per 100,000
• #2: South Dakota: 551 new cases per 100,000
• #3: Wisconsin: 487 new cases per 100,000
  
• #4: Montana: 404 new cases per 100,000 (which raises the question -- just how good is social distancing?)
• What about the big states?
• New York: 298
• New Jersey: 234
• Florida: 316
• Louisiana: 259
  

The big story tomorrow -- until something bigger comes along -- will be the Chinese flu pandemic, surging yet again, and the White House throwing in the towel on attempts to control it.

I track the pandemic here. 

My primary source of numerical data is this site. At that site, you can click on "USA" and get data for individual states. 

The US population: 330 million.

Number of Covid-19 cases to date, in the US: approaching 9 million.

9 / 330 = 3%.

Herd immunity: 65% to 70%, with or without a vaccine. 

Spanish flu: the meme -- one-third of the world's population became infected with the virus, back in 1918 - 1920. One-third is 33.3%. That's a long way from 3%. 

At a million new cases in the US each month, the current rate:

• 0.7*330 million = 230 million
• 230 / 1 = 230 months = about 20 years
• the vaccine would speed things up .... assuming ... a lot of assumptions
• note: we have not eradicated seasonal flu despite...
• vaccination against influenza began in the 1930s with large-scale availability in the United States beginning in 1945
• note: only one human viral pathogen had been eliminated: smallpox
• despite widespread vaccination several pathogens have not been eliminated: chickenpox; measles, mumps, rubella, dipththeria, H. flu, meningococcus, etc.;