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Saturday, November 30, 2019

Last Note For The Night -- November 30, 2019

After being gone for a week, Sophia is back in town. She and I have a play date tomorrow.

She wants to go to McDonald's. LOL.

According to her older sister and her dad, Sophia has a new "best restaurant": the Waffle House.

I kid you not. We have two Waffle House restaurants nearby. I can't wait to take her.

Off the net until tomorrow.
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Permian Doldrums? -- November 30, 2019

Hey, how about Auburn? Killed #5 Alabama's hope of any bowl games. Go Auburn! 

 By the way, Texas high school football: regional playoffs. As good as anything the NFL has to offer. LOL.

Don't believe the hype: Texas wildcatters "scoff" at growth predictions. From Bloomberg.
Texas wildcatters, after years eye-rolling at shale skeptics, are now saying global analysts are underestimating just how severe the industry’s slowdown is.
What’s ticking folks off these days is how the International Energy Agency in Paris and the Energy Information Administration in Washington still predict robust U.S.production growth next year, despite the dire reality on the ground. The IEA expects an increase of 900,000 barrels a day, while the EIA forecasts 1 million, which would mean practically replicating this year’s expansion.
Those projections don’t jibe with the vibe in Texas, home to about half of U.S. crude output. Capital-hungry producers are being starved of funding, stocks have plunged and there’s been zero appetite for public offerings, making the downturn potentially more enduring than previous price-related busts.
“All I know is, after 47 years, they’re usually wrong.” Frank Lodzinski, an industry veteran of almost five decades who’s chief executive officer at shale explorer Earthstone Energy Inc., said of the forecasts. “I can’t remember another time when oil was $55 and the industry was in such shambles.”
A drag: the Permian Basin is dragging down jobs in Texas -- Dallas Fed.
The world’s biggest shale patch is now officially a drag on jobs creation in the Lone Star state.
Employment in the Permian Basin of West Texas has fallen by 400 jobs through the first 10 months of the year, a massive change from the 16,700 jobs added through the same period last year, according to a report Wednesday from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
“Permian Basin job growth has been sluggish this year,” according to the report. “This marks the first time since 2016 that Permian Basin employment has lagged Texas job growth.”
Two comments:
  • Hey! That's the nature of oil booms, cycles; and,
  • I still agree with Lynn Helms: the Bakken is still the best play in North America. But then, at least one of us is very biased. LOL.
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Global Warming -- Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- November 30, 2019

From Minnesota, an article that "no one" will read but an article that says it all.
The sad story of Minnesota’s green energy failure is one that no doubt is being replicated around the country. And one of the ironies of green energy is that it is terrible for the environment. Both wind and solar energy require enormous amounts of land compared with conventional, reliable energy sources. Minnesota has scarred its landscape with endless acres of giant windmills and, to a lesser degree, solar panels. When those windmills begin to rust and fall still, the environmental damage will be even greater. And the green cronies who are now making millions through their political connections will be long gone.
Bay area freezes. San Francisco ties cold record.

Wind power: incredibly impossible.
Using wind power to replace the 3.9 billion megawatt-hours that Americans consumed in 2018, coal and gas-fired backup power plants, natural gas for home heating, coal and gas for factories, and gasoline for vehicles – while generating enough extra electricity every windy day to charge batteries for just seven straight windless days – would require some 14 million 1.8-MW wind turbines.
Those turbines would sprawl across three-fourths of the Lower 48 US states – and require 15 billion tons of steel, concrete and other raw materials. They would wipe out eagles, hawks, bats and other species.
I don't care for karaoke, but the accordion brought me here:

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OMG! Amazon Owns Two, And Will Have A Third, Whole Foods Stores In Baltimore, MD -- November 30, 2019

Amazon.  Link here.
Amazon owns two Whole Foods grocery stores in Baltimore and is opening a third, and recently began free delivery to Prime members without a fee. In a dozen convenience stores, it operates Amazon Lockers, where customers can pick up purchases. It has enlisted Kohl’s stores to handle returns. Its trucks and vans are everywhere.
Its trucks and vans are everywhere. Time to break up Amazon.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Suncor: Barron's -- 
  • a pipeline of cash
  • virtually unlimited reserves
  • "ample" dividend
  • P/E: 14
  • pays 4%
  • record data: December 3, 2019; pay date: Christmas Eve
  • and, the US needs heavy oil
Theme from Young Lovers, The Tornados
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A Reporter Affected With TDS Is Fired -- November 30, 2019

I really don't care what her side of the story is.

Later: another reporter pays the price for TDS.
It turns out Newsweek was not amused. The reporter, Jessica Kwong, has been fired. She tells her side of the story:
Kwong told the Washington Examiner that she was assigned to write a story about what the president was doing on Thanksgiving a week in advance and filed it to her editors on Wednesday. Then, she explained that she sent a message to the editor on duty with the president’s latest actions and the editor published the piece. That editor decided to have a reporter write a new story on Trump’s surprise trip to Afghanistan, and neglected to update Kwong’s original piece in a timely manner.
The root of the problem, of course, is that Newsweek, like pretty much all news outlets, is interested in bringing down President Trump, not in reporting the news.
This is why we see such mistakes in the press, over and over, and always in the same direction.
The original post (previously posted):

*********************************
Snopes To Fact Check?

I thought this was a joke -- that Newsweek was going to publish a story reporting that President Trump would be golfing over Thanksgiving.


But, according to talk radio here in Texas, Newsweek had the story all written -- that President Trump had spent the Thanksgiving holiday golfing in Mar-a-Lago, holding the story until the "facts, dates, specifics" were filled in.

Apparently the "news" outlet had to scramble to write the "real" story once it was learned that he was in Afghanistan -- the first trip he has ever made to Afghanistan. 
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Slawson's Tempest In Big Bend, A Re-Entry Well -- November 30, 2019

A short note posted for a Slawson re-entry, second lateral drilled, a Tempest well in Big Bend.

Agent 99
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Might These Be Extended Long Laterals? -- November 30, 2019

I'm getting ahead of my headlights.

This may be inaccurate.

If this important to you, go to the source; don't rely on this note.

This is based on the map and four wells on confidential status. Because these four wells are on confidential status, I do not for sure where the horizontals will run but based on several data points, it appears these four wells will be extended long laterals running north. These wells will come off the confidential list January 9, 2020.

The wells:
  • 36010, conf, Kraken, Bigfoot 23-11 LW 1H, Sanish:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20193534111001
8-20191619310
7-2019633513
  • 36011, conf, Kraken, Bigfoot 23-11 2TFH, Sanish:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-2019280458235
8-201974324005
7-2019686114
  • 36012, conf, Kraken, Bigfoot 23-11 3H, Sanish:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20195370218345
8-20194809927591
7-20192123943
  • 36013, conf, Kraken, Bigfoot 23-11 4TFH, Sanish:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20194046013596
8-20193675021478
7-20191478430

The graphic:


In addition, section 23-153-92, the sourthernmost section of the 3-section drilling unit, is also a 640-acre drilling unit with three producing wells (short laterals, of course), and Kraken is asking to put a fourth 640-acre well in that section (December, 2019, dockets, case #28175.

Those wells, all short laterals:
  • 16935, 780, Kraken, Frandson 11-23H, Sanish, t6/08; cum 195K 9/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20191310307321743118701121
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-201942532747029154216
BAKKEN4-201927575724242663346152
  • 22563, 704, Kraken, Hukkanen 11-23H, Sanish, t6/012; cum 155K 9/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20191414666691273177701705
BAKKEN8-2019116223701960196
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-201914805592528
BAKKEN4-201927623748195755463127
BAKKEN3-2019316887081858936760
  • 22853, 687, Kraken, Isaac 11-23H, Sanish, t7/012; cum 134K 9/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20198207013232160177
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20191500469185210517
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20191350537265
BAKKEN4-201928613534260639294177
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Keeping America Great -- November 30, 2019

I could be wrong, but it was my perception that the mainstream media was suggesting this would be a flat Black Friday.  This was the banner on Drudge Report for almost two full days, but as soon as the numbers came in, this banner was dropped and replaced by a non-story. Wow, everyone's a nayayer.


But not to be.

*************************************
Recession Is Just Around The Corner

From another source; google phrases if you want to find source:
Don't throw in the towel on the U.S. economy just yet.

Black Friday sales are the latest sign that the U.S. consumer, which makes up about 70 percent of the economy, is alive and well.

"All this talk of recession, and you know I thought that was ridiculous talk, it's not going to happen," Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz Global Investors, told FOX Business’ Maria Bartiromo on Monday. "The U.S. consumer is in a really good place and the U.S. consumer is the main driver of this economy."

Spending figures from the Black Friday weekend showed online shoppers spent a record $7.4 billion, almost as much as the $7.9 billion they spent during last year's Cyber Monday. That’s in addition to the $4.2 billion they spent online on Thanksgiving Day, which was 14.5 percent higher than last year's spending.
So let's take a look.

Link here.


From the linked story:
This year's Black Friday was the biggest ever for online sales, as fewer people hit the stores and shoppers rang up $7.4 billion in transactions from their phones, computers and tablets.
That's just behind the $7.9 billion haul of last year's Cyber Monday, which holds the one-day record for online sales, according to Adobe Analytics. Adobe measures sales at 80 of the top 100 U.S. online retailers.

So, now, on to Cyber Monday. 
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XTO Well Goes Over 500,000 Bbls Cumulative -- November 30, 2019

See this post: XTO plans injection EOR pilot operation. 

The well:
  •  29673, 1,987, XTO, Werre Trust 44X-34G, Bear Creek, t6/15; cum 505K 10/19;
Period of production interest, production has since decreased to 6,000 bbls/month, 10/19:
BAKKEN10-20182611431112111597714015135520
BAKKEN9-20183020024201212787626283261630
BAKKEN8-2018312093020673355782750126402980
BAKKEN7-20183120918208603924426824267110
BAKKEN6-20182912242123393011815017149350
BAKKEN5-20183111553114862833315050149600
BAKKEN4-2018138457806417717840883570
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20180000000
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-20170000000
BAKKEN10-2017002830000
BAKKEN9-201721455245611431500849610
BAKKEN8-201731664267712526805680040
BAKKEN7-20172971137036199775006471974
BAKKEN6-201729722971621979747774230

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Independence Day -- November 30, 2019

Before getting started, from August 22, 2019:
 
Doofus-in-Chief

Never mind.

By the way, if you ever want to find that clip quickly, search "doofus."

 US energy independence: top story of the week. "Everybody" is reporting this story -- except the mainstream media, CNBC, network news, NPR, and/or The Rolling Stone:

From the Bloomberg story:
The U.S. solidified its status as an energy producer by posting the first full month as a net exporter of crude and petroleum products since government records began in 1949.
The nation exported 89,000 barrels a day more than it imported in September, according to data from the Energy Information Administration Friday. While the U.S. has previously reported net exports on a weekly basis, today’s figures mark a key milestone that few would have predicted just a decade ago, before the onset of the shale boom.
President Donald Trump has touted American energy independence, saying that the nation is moving away from relying on foreign oil. While the net exports show decreasing reliance on imports, the U.S. still continues to buy heavy crude oil from other nations to meet the needs of its refineries. It also buys refined products when they are available for a lower cost from foreign suppliers. [Bloomberg conveniently omits the reason the US needs to import heavy crude oil from the Mideast.]
“The U.S. return to being a net exporter serves to remind how the oil industry can deliver surprises -- in this case, the shale oil revolution - that upend global oil prices, production, and trade flows,” said Bob McNally, a former energy adviser to President George W. Bush and president of the consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group.

EIA's official production data for September, 2019: link here. 



The shale revolution: earlier this year, the EIA added new production plays to its weekly oil reports.


This is perhaps most surprising news of the day, however.  "Everyone" knew the US was on its way to energy independence; no one saw this coming. Link here.


Previously Posted

Peak oil? What peak oil? US September crude oil production at 12.463 million bopd vs 12.397 (revised up from 12.365) million bopd in August; about a half-percent increase month-over-month, but September numbers will probably be revised up also. STEO report forecast 12.59 million bopd for September. So, actual production came in at a bit less than projected.

Also from twitter earlier today:



******************************
And The Trend Will Continue

From a SeekingAlpha contributor:
  • US oil production has been the least surprising variable this year.
  • the growth trajectory is so far in-line with previous estimates with year-end figures ranging between ~12.8 to ~12.9 mb/d
  • one thing is of certainty now though - the weekly + adjustment US oil production in the weekly EIA reports no longer explains production
  • in September, weekly + adjustment showed an implied US oil production of 13.156 mb/d, while EIA 914 showed ~12.463 mb/d. This is a delta of ~693k b/d
  • according to our US oil production matrix, we have US oil production at ~12.7 mb/d for October, which is ~240k b/d higher m-o-m. 
  • for the year-end, the exit appears to be ~12.9 mb/d with Q1 showing slightly lower production
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Week 48: November 24, 2019 -- November 30, 2019

There were a number of energy records broken this past week. Those stories are posted elsewhere.

Top international non-energy story:
Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:
Top national energy story: 
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
Top North Dakota energy story:
Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:
Operations:
Fracking:
Miscellaneous:
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