Tidying Up Loose Ends -- May 14, 2019 -- Holy Mackerel -- CLR Got A Great Well With A "Do-Over"

For newbies: it is truly amazing what an experienced team can do when they are drilling an unconventional well where they know the area like the back of their oil-stained hands. This well has produced almost 700,000 bbls of crude oil in less than three years.

• Total gas: 964,677 MCF = 160,753 boe
• Total boe: 691,213 + 160,753 = 852,000 boe in less than three years. Whoo-ah!

Previously posted:

February 17, 2015: this well was IA/SI (inactive/shut-in) the day it came off the confidential list; during the slump in oil prices; developed a hole in liner during stim ops; CLR may come back to re-drill:

• 27563, PA/420, CLR, Holstein Federal 1-25H, Elm Tree, when I checked May 5, 2015, the frack data showed only one frack stage; the well was shown as active, having produced nicely in February and March, 2015, but no test date; was it fracked? Update: test date 2/11/15; cum 32K 5/15; only 10 days in 6/15; none in 7/15 or 8/15; update here; remains PA, 8/16;

Note: in that note, it was said that CRL might come back to re-drill. Did they? They certainly did: #32294 was drilled right next to #27563. How did it do?

• 32294, 2,320, CLR, Holstein Federal 13-25H, Elm Tree, t11/16; cum 760K 7/19;

CLR's Holstein Federal wells in Elm Tree are tracked here. 

From the well file: the narrative is barely a page long (the original report was lost; so this was a summary, of sorts; all in a day's work -- this is simply amazing what these roughnecks are doing -- barely a week's worth of work/drilling, and they get a well that has produced almost 700,000 bbls crude oil in less than three years.

• spud: March 27, 2016
• TD curve: April 4, 2016
• Began lateral: April 7, 2016
• cease drilling: April 11, 2016
• target: middle Bakken
• in the target zone: 100%
• lateral was drilled in 75 bit hours
• low gas units
• flares of 1 - 5'  

If the frack report was there, I missed it. I could not find it. However, FracFocus said it was stimulated 11/10/2016 - 11/21/2016; with 12.9 million gallons of water; a typical frack.

Full production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	19074	19127	6895	34334	33822	93
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	17749	17639	5052	22615	22153	84
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	20717	20847	6085	28998	28489	93
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	21833	22414	7325	39352	37993	940
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	20575	20029	5835	35586	35091	90
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	22410	22395	6298	30660	30154	93
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	23479	23399	6391	28611	28118	90
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	25449	25494	7255	33576	33066	93
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	25259	25139	7022	36599	36090	93
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	26755	26810	8111	33748	32224	1119
BAKKEN	5-2018	29	20710	20795	7952	19431	18563	699
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	23779	23779	7178	32681	32024	437
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	30512	30397	10246	44731	44390	93
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	23441	23501	7661	33062	32802	84
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	29506	29747	8668	45632	45291	93
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	31324	31052	9422	46047	45714	93
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	31778	31662	9407	43811	42266	1311
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	29135	29167	9286	41920	41588	87
BAKKEN	9-2017	29	28757	29136	9632	33714	30941	2558
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	33959	33901	13976	47570	43856	3477
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	37807	37498	18629	51694	51364	93
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	37719	37695	25176	54233	44173	9821
BAKKEN	5-2017	30	29334	29246	44462	41743	37845	3665
BAKKEN	4-2017	3	260	222	40	1	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	5	1692	1832	758	2396	2292	12
BAKKEN	1-2017	31	26979	26944	7933	33122	32439	390
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	38402	38547	14249	53175	52563	93
BAKKEN	11-2016	8	12819	12355	11766	15635	14932	528

 

Random Update On The Equinor Skarston Wells -- May 14, 2019

The Equinor Skarston wells in Banks oil field are followed here.

These are really some incredibly good wells. I haven't followed them in a long, long time, but tonight I noticed that there has been some activity affecting these wells.

Newbies and those interested in the Skarston wells should look at the updated production data (at the link above), and then look at a typical production profile for one of the Skarston wells, #25854. It appears that the Skarston wells have all come off line for a month or so; and are now returning to production with a jump in production.

Maybe if I have time some night, I will try to see if any of the existing Skarston wells were recently fracked.

Recent production data for #25854; FracFocus: no data suggesting a recent frack:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	7042	6522	6094	11567	7784	3102
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	13	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	20	4535	4959	3709	7620	6614	156
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	10870	10554	10133	27163	23903	702
BAKKEN	11-2018	14	2397	2545	2713	2881	2527	95
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	3658	3435	3643	4899	3966	531

My Exuberance For The Bakken May Have Gotten Ahead Of Me, But I Cannot Explain this CLR Whitman Well, #20212.

Note: be very careful on this one. Things don't add up. I don't think I've made a mistake in posting what I've posted but something is really, really strange with #20212 below.

Summary: #20212 was a fairly mediocre well (a lousy well?) after it was first drilled/completed back in 2011. Then it had a nice jump in production with a re-frack in 9/17 with a huge re-frack. Then, in 9/18, a year later, with no data suggesting a re-frack, the well had an even greater production jump.

This is how it all started. Back on February 4, 2019, I asked this question:

Is Something Going On With CLR's Phenomenal Hawkinson Wells In Oakdale Oil Field?

The Oakdale oil field and Hawkinson permits are tracked here. The Whitman wells are tracked here. They were in the process of being re-fracked back in 2018.

See this post.

So, with that, I took another look at 20210 and 20212 today.

Look at the most recent production data. Production jumps again in the most recent month for which we have data, 3/19. Truly amazing. The well:

• 20210, 803, CLR, Whitman 2-34H, Oakdale, Bakken, t9/11; cum 1.629573 million bbls/112/18; FracFocus/NDIC: no record of refrack; huge jump 9/18;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2019	30	10131	9975	5804	9842	9299	159
BAKKEN	2-2019	24	5997	5843	4104	5632	5345	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	1	4	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	20	6642	6922	1753	7250	5874	1133
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	12158	12190	3987	13439	11887	1133
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	13999	14197	6835	15432	14036	1011
BAKKEN	8-2018	4	2075	1375	1231	2073	1580	443
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	0	0	221	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

FracFocus: no data suggesting a re-frack. I see a lot of activity in the Hawkinson well area to the north, but no activity on the NDIC mad in the area of the two Whitman wells.

But right next to this well,

• 20212, 482, CLR, Whitman 3-34H, Oakdale, Bakken; t9/11; 376K 3/19 re-fracked 9/17;

That note says it was re-fracked in 2017 and there was a huge jump in production 10/17 BUT now we see another huge jump in production as of 9/18;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	28628	28686	14764	31254	30819	23
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	25683	25319	14202	26821	26450	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	16	13734	13601	10128	13831	13628	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	22	16216	16649	9260	18218	16594	1334
BAKKEN	11-2018	29	32050	32060	7982	33651	30774	2503
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	37074	36992	10813	39302	35611	3272
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	36826	36625	14331	38670	34010	4265
BAKKEN	8-2018	4	4731	4441	2378	4621	3785	786
BAKKEN	7-2018	1	67	67	84	4	0	3
BAKKEN	6-2018	1	1	138	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	403	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	16	3239	3127	473	2465	2376	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	19	5486	5631	756	4317	4139	50
BAKKEN	2-2018	25	5310	5088	595	4445	4261	0

FracFocus: no data that this well was re-fracked in 8/18, but obviously it had to have been. But the NDIC sundry forms show a re-frack 9/17 (61 stages; 14.5 million lbs) but no more recent frack.

I see no other activity in this drilling area to explain the production data for this well, #20212. Either the data has not been posted, or there's a typo somewhere, but there has to be an explanation for a production profile like the one above.

I'm going to be really, really embarrassed if I missed a sundry form that explains this.

Another Large Crude Oil Build -- May 14, 2019

First things first: I love it -- every week it's a "surprise." So, again this week:

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a large surprise build in crude oil inventory of 8.6 million barrels for the week ending May 10, coming in significantly over analyst expectations of a 2.125-million-barrel drawdown in inventories.

So there you have it:

• API forecast: a 2.125-million-bbl drawdown
• actual: a huge 8.6-million-bbl build
• that's a "swing" of almost 11 million bbls

Price of oil: hardly moves. With all the saber-rattling in the Mideast right now, can you imagine what oil would be doing if this were 1984?

We will see if EIA corroborates the data tomorrow.

Beverly Hills Cop, 1984:

• Axel F, Harold Faltermeyer

The Sporadic Nature And Unpredicatability Of The Bakken -- May 14, 2019

Previously:

September 22, 2016: watch for halo effect on #16473; check to see why #24229 and #24230 were off-line so much in 4/16 through 7/16;  #24229 with huge halo effect;

So, let's see what these wells are doing doing now.

The well:

• 24230, 2,927, BR, State Veeder 11-25MBH, 33-053-04530, Blue Buttes, t5/13; cum 339K 3/19; 

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2019	4	125	585	287	141	112	19
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	4940	5421	2662	4480	4410	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	28	6325	6014	3531	6893	6823	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	29	9156	9148	4617	10143	10071	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	26	9238	8780	4980	10427	10362	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	20	2582	2402	4953	8384	8334	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	0	0	5	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	1	48	43	56	147	145	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	594	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	6	27	0	54	15	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	387	203	83	529	455	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	2439	2336	723	4012	3935	0

Note:

• small jump in production; 
• off line again in 3/19 
• FracFocus: no data suggeting a re-frack

Another well in the area has show some unusual jumps in production which did not last long:

• 16473, 351, BR, State Veeder 41-36H, Blue Buttes, t4/07; cum 200K 3/19; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	1102	1380	396	2613	2237	299
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	1166	935	326	1715	1353	292
BAKKEN	1-2019	12	529	229	307	359	306	23
BAKKEN	12-2018	15	522	694	231	314	277	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	1913	1864	587	2148	2074	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	2451	2570	1145	2182	2105	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	3463	3422	1363	4037	3963	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	4804	4941	2089	5715	5638	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	30	5068	4917	2848	5513	5439	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	7276	7391	3222	4982	4279	629
BAKKEN	5-2018	7	1698	1373	1121	2004	916	1071
BAKKEN	4-2018	29	0	0	0	72	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	683	923	75	284	207	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	14	399	237	87	155	120	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	3	90	232	7	66	59	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	1058	974	120	463	386	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	23	717	699	195	232	175	0

FracFocus: no data suggesting a re-frac.

For newbies: the Bakken is dynamic. Once a well is drilled and producing that is not the end of the story. That well will take on a life of its own: re-works, small re-fracks; major re-fracks; impacts from neighboring activity. In the immediate area of this well there is so much activity it would be hard-pressed to state exactly what is causing the sporadic jumps in production.

Re-Posting -- Deadline Tomorrow, May 15, 2019, For Pipeline Permit

Deadline: tomorrow, May 15, 2019 -- a reader brought this to my attention -- one of many links here:

• New England, NYC, Long Island
• National Grid needs access to more natural gas if growth is to continue
• access to more natural gas hinges on permits for pipelines
• National Grid says it will put the moratorium on hookups back in place if the new pipeline permits are not approved
• affects Westchester County, NYC, Long Island
• directly from the article: the problem stems from three things: 
• significant growth in natural-gas demand created by the current development boom,
• increased demand from existing buildings converting to gas from dirtier energy sources such as heating oil, and 
• more extreme heating needs as climate change brings more extremely cold winter days. 
• no new pipeline has been approved since 2013
• at the link, the writer proposes the equivalent of President Carter's solution: wear sweaters in the winter

Actually it sounds like -- according to the article -- even without any growth, the National Grid natural gas supply is already stretched to its limits during the winter.

My hunch: they will find a way to thread the needle.

Likely solution: "forbid" National Grid from any moratorium on hookups but approve no new pipeline permit, waiting to see what this next winter brings. Seems crazy but kicking the can down the road has worked since 2013. If nothing else, the "May 15th" deadline will be extended, as the"parties remain talking."

Note the third point made by a "global warming" proponent: part of the current problem is due to "more heating needs as climate change brings more extremely cold winter days."

Hess With Three New Permits -- May 14, 2019

WTI: saber-rattling continues in the Mideast, and WTI barely moves.

Deadline: tomorrow, May 15, 2019 -- a reader brought this to my attention -- one of many links here:

• New England
• National Grid needs access to more natural gas if growth is to continue
• access to more natural gas hinges on permits for pipelines
• National Grid says it will put the moratorium on hookups back in place if the permits are not approved
• affects Westchester County, NYC, Long Island
• directly from the article:
• the problem stems from three things: significant growth in natural-gas demand created by the current development boom, increased demand from existing buildings converting to gas from dirtier energy sources such as heating oil, and more extreme heating needs as climate change brings more extremely cold winter days. 
• no new pipeline has been approved since 2013
• at the link, the writer proposes the equivalent of President Carter's solution: wear sweaters in the winter

Too big to fail: international banks re-new terms on Mexico's debt.

• US banks: HSBC, JP Morgan, Mizuho Securites
• extend maturity of a $5.5 billion loan by two years
• will refinance $2.5 billion in existing debt
• business as usual
• the tea leaves suggest that Mexico is on the road to Venezuala
• Mexico says it will use the money to boost oil production in aging fields
• a bit of smoke-and-mirrors: migration from legacy assignment titles to production sharing agreements even though the current president has suspended all contracts signed by the previous administration "pending review"
• Mexico recently announced a lifeline of almost $4 billion for heavily-indebted Pemex
• Pemex production: 
• 2013: 2.522 million bopd
• 2017: 1.948 million bopd
• 2018: 1.813 million bopd
• goal: 2.522 million bopd by the end of AMLO's "term" in office

********************************

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$61.71	5/14/2019	05/14/2018	05/14/2017	05/14/2016	05/14/2015
Active Rigs	65	60	51	27	83

Three new permits:

• Operator: Hess
• Field: Manitou (Mountrail County)
• Comments: Hess has permits for a 3-well EN-Ruland pad in lot 1 / section 4-155-94

That was all.

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- May 14, 2019

NDIC monthly report: expect the Director's Cut to be released tomorrow, May 15, 2019, at 2:00 p.m. Link here. 

Mideast: reports of drones attacking Saudi pipelines. WTI up 1.5% today; up about a dollar, now trading just below $62. 

US shale: setting new production records. Link here. For another view, the shale boom is about to go bust (previously linked).

Weatherford: to file for Chapter 11.

Keeping America great: Eqinor to pay almost a billion dollars for a stake in Shell's oilfield in the Gulf of Mexico. Data points:

• will acquire an additional 22.45 percent in Shell Offshore Inc.'s Caesar Tonga oilfield
• 180 miles SSW of New Orleans
• Equinor's current production from this area: 18,600 boepd
• all cash
• a month ago, the deal was expected to be with Delek Group and not Equinor
• Equinor had preferential rights
• the field, now
  Equinor: 46%
• Anadarko, the operator: 33.75%
• Chevron: 20.25% (you can start to see the synergies Chevron saw with Anadarko)
• back of the envelope
• already has 22.45%
• exactly doubles that
• 18,600 boepd x $50 = about $1 million / day
• $1 billion cash / $1 million /day ---> 1,000 days of production

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Tuesday, May 14,  2019:

• 34634, SI/NC, Slawson, Wolverine Federal 13-31-30TF2H, Elm Tree, no production data,
• 34238, 640, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 42-23 8T, Banks, t12/18; cum 80K 3/19; the Aagvik wells are tracked here;
• 34237, 576, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 42-23 7B, Banks, t12/18; cum 111K 3/19;

Active rigs:

$61.96	5/14/2019	05/14/2018	05/14/2017	05/14/2016	05/14/2015
Active Rigs	64	60	51	27	83

RBN Energy: Gulf Coast Express set to reshuffle some Permian gas outflows.

Permian natural gas prices have been on a wild ride lately, trading more than $5/MMBtu below zero in early April before recovering to just above zero over the last few weeks. It’s hardly a secret that the Permian’s gas market woes have been the direct result of production exceeding pipeline capacity. That situation is set to change in a few months, when Kinder Morgan starts up its 1.98-Bcf/d Gulf Coast Express Pipeline, providing much needed new takeaway capacity. And that’s not all GCX will do. Its start-up will shift huge volumes of gas toward the Texas Gulf Coast that currently flow out of the Permian to other markets, likely causing a ripple effect across more than just the West Texas gas market. Today, we look at how Kinder Morgan’s new gas pipeline will redirect significant volumes of Permian gas currently flowing north to the Midcontinent.

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The Magazine Page

This is very timely. I'm in my dinosaur phase, studying again the history of life on earth using the dinosaurs as the midpoint -- for everything that came before and then everything that came after.

The June issue of Scientific America's lead article: "The Rise of the First Animals." Whoo-hoo!

Of course, the magazine had to include a politically correct article, "Yes, Climate Change Is Making Severe Weather Worse." Okay, it is agreed that the temperature of the year will increase by 2 to 5 degrees over the next 100 years which means that we have not seen more than a half a degree change so far, if that. Many would argue it's been much less, and some would argue that it's actually gotten cooler. If so, perhaps global cooling is due to the solar minima which even NOAA/NASA are discussing as "fact." 

So, it's hard for me to believe that "severe weather is getting worse" due to climate change. At worse, the earth has warmed by a a tenth of a degree since Occasional-Cortex was born; perhaps it's gotten slightly cooler; it's possible, the temperature hasn't changed at all. But regardless, it's hard to believe it's affected the weather.

In the United States, hurricanes and tornadoes have been less ferocious than historical and after that I'm not sure what folks mean by severe weather.

The permanent drought we were going to see in the southwest US, if not the entire US: historic floods in Texas and Iowa this year. Maybe that's what they mean by "climate change" making severe weather worse.

For now, I'm going to read about the "rise of the first animals." 

************************************

The Apple Page

And so it goes:

• Apple flagship update: the Carnegie Library in DC -- Washington Post, Dallas Morning News, May 12, 2019. 
• The problem with the Carnegie Library Apple store -- Citylab, May 10, 2019.
• Crowds, inconvenience show how Apple Store lost its bite -- Bloomberg, Dallas Morning News, May 12, 2019.