The article does not mention the first; was it the Shaden? See this post. The Shaden just rounded Singapore and is on its last leg north to China.
Now the second direct-to-VLCC export of US crude from the Louisiana
Offshore Oil Port is en route to the port of Shanghai, China. The tanker is currently off the northeast coast of South America, just south of Venezuela, just north of Brazil. ETA, China: May 17, 2018.
The second direct-to-VLCC export of US crude from the Louisiana
Offshore Oil Port is en route to the port of Shanghai, China.
The vessel Nave Photon departed LOOP on March 25, after having
arrived at the offshore US Gulf of Mexico port March 15.
The vessel is believed to be laden with
US Gulf Coast medium sour crude grade Mars and chartered by Shell.
Following its departure from LOOP, the
vessel has made its way past the Caribbean islands just northeast of
Venezuela.
In recent months, buyers in China have been looking to increase their
exposure to WTI-based crude grades in an attempt to diversify supply. An open arbitrage window for USGC crudes
to go east has added to the attractiveness of buying USGC crude grades
for buyers in China.
The Dubai/WTI swap spread has widened $1.41/b since the start of
March and 7 cents/b since the start of February to 96 cents/b as of
Monday. As Dubai’s premium over WTI grows, WTI-based sour grades become
more competitive with Dubai-based Middle Eastern sour grades in export
markets in Asia.
Mars has been steadily gaining in price since February 13, having
added $1.80/b since to end at a differential of WTI cash plus 15 cents/b
on Monday.
Much more at the link.
*****************************
President Trump and Syria Back In The News
Does anyone remember this story, from an earlier post?
President Obama Spent $500 Million To Train Syrian Army
in the Permian: too much oil, too much natural gas -- not enough pipeline
Permian crude oil production probably hit a record 3.1 million bopd in March (2018)
some operators in the Permian could be in a world of hurt -- they paid too much to enter the Bakken and may not be able to produce as much as they are capable of producing
no one saw this coming. Why? Who ever thought there would not be enough pipe in Oklahoma or Texas
price of WTI is going to trend lower
Right now, in the US crude oil sector, it's hard to find a bigger story than what's going on in the Permian right now. RBN Energy posted a blog on it yesterday/today (paying subscribers get RBN Energy blogs a day earlier than the rest of us).
Reuters, six hours ago, reported: Texas oil output surge clogs pipelines, depresses prices. Go to twitter and search Permian oil pipelines and you will see how bad this has gotten. This is going to be a huge, huge problem before it gets better.
I argued some months ago that many operators may have overpaid to get into the Permian. At its height (and maybe still going on) operators paid upwards of $80,000 / mineral acre in the Permian. And now, those operators have to drill as fast as they can to start showing a return on their investment. Something tells me this is not going to end well for some operators.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything your read here or think you may have read here.
The Permian:
The linked Reuters story is late to the game. But here are some excerpts:
The Permian basin in Texas is leading the way as U.S. oil production has
reached an all-time high, but the prolific output is causing
bottlenecks as pipelines transporting the crude have filled up more
quickly than expected.
That has depressed prices there, posing a threat to future
production, while providing a boost to pipeline companies as the lines
have filled to near-capacity.
With few new pipeline projects
scheduled for this year, producers may be forced to slow drilling, or
even shut in active production.
The problem illustrates the
snags that can arise in transporting crude to the U.S. Gulf Coast as oil
prices have rebounded to more than $60 a barrel and companies have
reduced costs to make drilling more profitable in the Permian.
Production there is estimated to have hit a record 3.08 million bpd in
March, nearly a third of overall U.S. production of 10.4 million bpd,
according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Permian
drillers are branching out into relatively less-profitable areas of the
region, said John Zanner, energy analyst for RBN Energy.
From Dallas News: oil-rich Permian Basin has a Texas-sized natural gas problem.
A pipeline shortage that's leaving gas trapped in West
Texas' Permian Basin means prices for the fuel there are the lowest of
any major U.S. hub, wresting that distinction from Appalachia's
Marcellus Shale.
Prices for Permian gas, produced
alongside oil in the play, have tumbled 30 percent from a year ago,
while output rose to a record. And the pipeline crunch is also pummeling
the region's oil market.
All that gas production is
creating a dilemma for drillers, who may be forced to curtail oil output
if they can't get their gas to market. Producers can burn off some of
the gas -- a process known as flaring -- but state regulators typically
won't allow that to happen indefinitely. And as mild spring weather
limits demand for the heating fuel, explorers may be giving their gas
away, according to broker Ion Energy Group LLC.
A takeaway problem was a huge story for the Bakken during the boom, but did not get a lot of national attention for a number of reasons.
The takeaway problem for the Permian is going to be a problem much bigger than the Bakken takeaway problem.
******************************
Music Video Break
This reminds me of the late 1960's / early 1970's when I hitchhiked. I hitchhiked often, including three cross-country trips, twice from the west coast to the Dakotas and once from the east coast to Williston, North Dakota.
Looking back now, it's hard to believe how much hitchhiking I did. Rarely a big rig would stop to give me a lift.
SM Energy Company has inked two definitive
agreements for the sale of assets in the Williston Basin and Upton
County. The company did not reveal the buyers. A cumulative amount of
$292.3 million is expected from the transactions.
The first
agreement relates to the sale of remaining assets in the Williston Basin
located in Divide County, ND. This comprises net acreage of about
119,400 acres, which are primarily contiguous. It also includes net proved
reserves as of year-end 2017 of 28.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, of which 52% are proved undeveloped. In December 2017, net
production from the assets to be sold was about 6,100 boe per day, of
which 83% was oil.
The second relates to the sale of its
third-party operated assets known as Halff East located in Upton County,
TX. The assets likely to be sold in Upton County comprises a 60% working
interest in third-party operated assets, a net acreage of about 5,400
and 1.6 MMBoe net proved reserves as of year-end 2017, of which 0% is
proved undeveloped. In December, net production from these assets was
about 1,025 Boe per day, of which 72% oil.
Unfortunately the two deals were combined with regard to total amount received ($292.3 million). But the Upton County was only 5,400 acres vs almost 120,000 acres in North Dakota. So, let's just go with $292 million / 119,400 acres = $2,500 / acre.
********************************
The Language Page
Ideas: A History of Thought and Invention, From Fire to Freud, Peter Watson, c. 2005.
I've always wondered how the Chinese language handled verbs and nouns. I've asked many people who I thought should know and never got a satisfactory answer.
But now, here it is, from the book noted above, page 301:
Because Chinese is a non-inflectional language, words do not change according to number, gender, case, tense, voice or mood. Relationships are indicated either by word order or the use of auxiliary words.
Take for example this sentence as it would be delivered in Chinese: "Yesterday he give I two literature revolution book."
"Yesterday" indicates that "give" means "gave" (as would say in English).
Word order indicates that "I" means me, and "two" indicates that "book" means "books."
The most difficult interpretation in this sentence is "literature revolution." But the word order indicates that it must mean "literary revolution" and not "revolutionary literature." And so the full sentence means, "Yesterday, he gave me two books on [the] literary revolution"
Auxiliary words like le indicate a completed tense of a verb and "I" followed by wen means "we."
Words are classified as "solid" or "empty." Solid words have meaning in themselves, while empty ones are used in a grammatical sense, to fulfil (sic)prepositional, connective or interrogative functions. "You are an Englishman, ma," for example, means "Are you an Englishman?"
[You are an Englishman, yes?]
In the same way that the Chinese language is based on a different set of ideas from the Indo-European languages, so its script is very different from the Western alphabets. It recalls much more the early pictographs used in Mesopotamia at the birth of writing. All Chinese dialects use the same script, on which others such as Korean and Japanese are based. According to tradition, Chinese script was invented by Cang Re, an official at the court of the semi-mythical emperor, Huang Di, who lived at the beginning of the third millenium BC, though there is no archaeological evidence for the Chinese script older than 1400 BC on oracle bones and bronze vessels.
The script is based on four ideas.
The first is pictorial representation. The sun, for instance, was first written as a circle with a dot inside. This was later schematised (sic) as a rectangle with a short stroke in the middle. Three peaks stood for a mountain.
The second principle was the use of diagrams. Numbers, for example, were simple strokes and the concepts "above" and "below" were represented by a dot above and below a horizontal stroke.
The third principle was suggestion (and a certain sense of humor). "Hear," for example, was shown by an ear between two panels of a door, and "forest" was two trees side-by-side.
The fourth principle is to combine signification and phonetics. For example, the character for "ocean" and "sheep" are both yang, with the same tone. So ocean became yang plus the character for "water." This is only a beginning, of course. Chinese characters are classified in dictionaries according to 214 "radicals," or identifying roots. These indicate the general characteristics of meaning, on which various embellishments have been added.
Chinese script, traditionally written with a brush, rather than a pen, exists in various styles -- such as regular style, the running style, and the "grass" style.
In the regular style, each stroke is separate, comparable to manuscript writing in English or Latin.
In the running style, separate strokes tend to merge into flowing lines, much more so than cursive script in English. The grass style is much abbreviated, like shorthand. For example, the character li (ritual, propriety) is written with seventeen strokes in regular style, nine in running style, and just four in grass style. The regular style is used in formal writing but running style is preferred in art, which includes calligraphy.
And, no I cannot make this up: Portland, OR -- yes, here in the United States -- imports gasoline from South Korea -- apparently the citizens of that state prefer gasoline from overseas -- LOL
gasoline cargo; 86,688 bbls of gasoline from Onsan, South Korea
hasn't happened since summer, 2015 (last time Portland, OR, imported gasoline from South Korea)
shipper: Phillips 66
the tanker: Azalea Galaxy
transit: two weeks
not unprecedented for Portland, OR, to import a refined product: happened most recently, December 17, 2017; from Singapore; then it was renewable diesel fuel (whatever renewable diesel fuel is)
BP Cherry Point, in Blaine, WA, is undergoing major repair work; slated to be down for the entire month of April (2018)
I guess Portland couldn't find a tanker of gasoline from Louisiana
[actually, there's more to the story -- at the link -- and it's not as strange / unusual as it might sound]
Later, 8:57 p.m. Central Time: this is not surprising -- I never thought it was legal. The US military cannot take on "law enforcement" duties along the border. So, President Trump has already tackled that problem: he is deploying an "imaginary military force" to halt the "imaginary Honduran caravan." As it stands now, it sounds like the Honduran caravan is breaking up, currently more than a thousand miles south of Texas, and still south of Mexico City.
Original Post
Thoughts on the Southern Wall. $25 billion to build? I forget. I think that was
the last number I heard.
Omnibus bill: peanuts for the Southern Wall.
Let's look at the omnibus bill again:
$1.3 trillion
$700 billion for the military (Department of Defense)
$65 billion for Overseas Contingency Operations: Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan
biggest year-over-year increase in defense funding in 15 years -- a $61 billion increase over FY 2017
and, yet, US military operations are winding down overseas
now, the Southern Wall
stationing the national guard along the frontier
not
the first time this has been done; Bush II did it; but like most things
Bush II did, no real commitment, no real strategy, and mostly
half-hearted
estimated cost: $60 million to $120 million / year
for military troops along the wall; and pretty good duty -- compared to
being sent to Afghanistan
$25 billion for the physical wall / $100 million (per year for the military) = 250 years
Planned Parenthood gets $500 million / year -- $25 billion would pay for 250 years of troops at the southern frontier
a
lot of Texas ranchers who complained about the border during the Obama
years now say they don't want a wall; Californians don't want a wall
(except along their own state border with California, as long as it's called a "fence"); but Texas ranchers not wanting it -- that
settled it for me -- I no longer care about a Southern Wall one way or
the other
I'm excited about the prospects of the national guard
becoming the "Southern Wall" -- think of the infrastructure that will be
needed
for the military, every operation is "shovel ready" -- no permits needed; no contracts; -- I'm not saying there won't be permits and contracts -- I'm just saying they aren't needed
expect to see "temporary" bases all along the southern
border -- I've been part of many, many "temporary" operations and
assigned to several "temporary" bases during my 30-year career; my two favorites: Incirlik AB (Turkey); Sidi Slimane (Morocco)
in my experience, if
the "temporary" base was in place longer than a year, it started to
look permanent: the PX/BX moved in; Burger King moved in; bowling alleys
moved in; Apple Computer kiosks moved in; the USPS and Amazon moved in
should be fascinating to watch
parades need themes; maybe the theme for the US military parade this November (2018) should be: the Southern Wall
After much soul-searching, with the right safeguards put in place, and heavy penalties placed on Mexico,
I would like to see dreamers (DACA) fast-tracked; and,
I would like to see the "Honduran caravan" welcomed into the US
I still stand by that. A reader asked me about that. When I get caught up, I will answer him, but it will be an unsatisfactory answer for everyone.
"Temporary" bases all along the southern border. Bob Dylan recorded a song that fits.
Regarding my comment that I no longer care about a Southern Wall one way or the other, there's a song for that, too (actually it's a theme song Trump probably hums in the shower):
Jobs, link here, first time unemployment claims --
prior: 215K
prior revised: 218K
forecast: 230K
actual: 242K
looks like Steve Liesman doesn't have to worry about where employers will find new employees after ADP's huge employment numbers yesterday
no explanation for large pop in unemployment claims
**********************************
Today
Wow, there's so much to report. I can't keep up. I may simply dial it back and slow down.
First, the market. Anyone surprised? I'm not. Some great opportunities in the past ten days for traders and long-term investors alike. We seldom get these opportunities.
Second: Trump. What can I say? Brilliant. Joss just doesn't get it, does he?
Third: the Southern Wall. $25 billion to build? I forget. I think that was the last number I heard. Omnibus bill: peanuts for the Southern Wall. Let's look at the omnibus bill again:
$1.3 trillion
$700 billion for the military (Department of Defense)
$65 billion for Overseas Contingency Operations: Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan
biggest year-over-year increase in defense funding in 15 years -- a $61 billion increase over FY 2017
and, yet, US military operations are winding down overseas
now, the Southern Wall
stationing the national guard along the frontier
not the first time this has been done; Bush II did it; but like most things Bush II did, no real commitment, no real strategy, and mostly half-hearted
estimated cost: $60 million to $120 million / year for military troops along the wall; and pretty good duty -- compared to being sent to Afghanistan
$25 billion for the physical wall / $100 million (per year for the military) = 250 years
Planned Parenthood gets $500 million / year
a lot of Texas ranchers who complained about the border during the Obama years now say they don't want a wall; Californians don't want a wall (except in their state); but Texas ranchers not wanting it -- that settled it for me -- I no longer care about a Southern Wall one way or the other
I'm excited about the prospects of the national guard becoming the "Southern Wall" -- think of the infrastructure that will be needed
expect to see "temporary" bases all on the southern border -- I've been part of many, many "temporary" operations and assigned to several "temporary" bases during my 30-year career
if the "temporary" base was in place longer than a year, it started to look permanent: the PX/BX moved in; Burger King moved in; bowling alleys moved in; Apple Computer kiosks moved in; the USPS and Amazon moved int
should be fascinating to watch
Fourth: Colleyville Heritage HS Girls Soccer will play Wichita Falls Rider in the
Region 1 Quarterfinals at 6 p.m. TONIGHT at Colleyville Heritage HS.
Good luck and go Panthers! The Colleyville Heritage High Schoolis literally in our backyard. Literally. The back fence (yeah, a wall) separates our apartment unit with the soccer field for the Colleyville Heritage High School.
By the way, about four months ago, my wife and I were "lost" out near
the Texas Motor Speedway when we happened to notice some brand new BNSF
locomotives in what looked like a manufacturing / industrial park, with
a huge "GE" loco on one of the buildings. From The Star-Telegram awhile back:
FORT WORTH --
General Electric’s locomotive plant in far north Fort Worth is putting a
strain on the company’s relationship with one of its Pennsylvania-based
unions.
The plant, which opened in 2012 near Texas Motor Speedway, employs more
than 500 people and builds railroad locomotives and mining equipment.
The facility, near Texas 114 and Farm Road 156, cranks out an average of
1.2 locomotives per day, a plant manager has said, and those vehicles
are bought by customers such as Fort Worth-based BNSF Railway and Union
Pacific Railroad, based in Omaha, Nebraska.
But workers at the Fort Worth plant aren’t union members, and that has
caused some heartburn among union representatives in GE’s much older
locomotive plant in Erie, PA.
And then last month, the new GE CEO John Flannery said he planned to sell or spin-off the Ft Worth GE locomotive plant.
Now, today -- not so fast. Fort Worth Star-Telegram is reporting that the plant John Flannery did not like will build 200 locomotives for a Canadian railroad:
Canadian National's order is the largest among North America's class 1 railways since 2014
the Tier 4 and Tier 3 (Tier 4 certified) Evolution Series locomotives are diesel-powered; known for optimal power distribution, train handling, brake control, and fuel efficiency
the plant is practically brand new -- built in 2013; promised to lure 700 jobs to Texas
GE also had a 125-year-old locomotive plant in Erie, PA
GE's locomotive division also builds locomotives for
Fort Worth-based BNSF Railway as well as Union Pacific Railroad, CSX and
railroads in several foreign countries.
At its peak, the Fort Worth plant can crank out an average of one locomotive a day.
Observers say the factory has some of the most modern equipment and efficient manufacturing methods in the world.
And John Flannery was going to sell that asset.
My reply, not ready for prime time, to the reader who sent me the link to this story:
I'm beginning to think John Flannery is as much an idiot as his predecessor, Jeff Immelt: no
long-term strategy?
One month he's selling an incredibly good
manufacturing plant with a great workforce and now he's keeping it.
It's
easy for me to say this in hindsight, but it certainly seems that there
aren't a whole lot of folks building locomotives these days. There's a
pretty wide moat ---
Norway: this is incredibly cool. Just the other day, in a post about global re-balancing, I wrote that I was skeptical that there would be any global re-balancing anytime soon:
Let's add in Kashagan. Mexico's Gulf of Mexico. The US Gulf of Mexico.
Let's add in Exxon's Guyana. Add in "Statoil's" new push off shore
Norway. Subtract out Libya (inconsequential). Subtract out Venezuela
(inconsequential). Both Libya and Venezuela will be offset by Canadian
production if push comes to shove.
OMV Norge AS announced Wednesday that it has encountered ‘exploration
success’ at well 6506/11-10, located offshore Norway in license PL
644B.
The well targeted two formations; the Cretaceous Hades prospect and
the Jurassic Iris prospect located directly underneath. OMV said the
well discovered gas and condensate in both exploration targets with
‘very good’ reservoir properties.
Preliminary results indicate a discovery size of between 20 and 115
million recoverable barrels of oil equivalent (boe) for Hades, and
between 20 and 130 million recoverable boe for Iris, according to OMV.
And so it goes. [Not that "significant" in my book, by the way.]
********************************
Fake news/headline: Reuters reports that yesterday's US crude oil inventories dropped because of increased output from the refineries. Perhaps. But when you look at the numbers, highly doubtful.
in the past two weeks, the refineries were operating at 93% operable capacity
Reuters reports that week-over-week, refinery utilization rates rose by 0.7% (inconsequential)
refinery crude oil runs rose by 141,000 bopd
US crude oil production hit a new weekly record of 10.46 million bopd compared to 10.433 million bopd last week
10.46 - 10.433 = 27,000 bopd
27,000 x 7 days = 189,000 bbls for the week increase in production
7 * 141,000 bbls = 987,000 bbls increase in refinery runs for the week
the drawdown reported: 4.6 million bbls
sounds like Reuters is using the same analysts as Tesla
but it begs the question: what DOES account for the drawdown?
***********************************
Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
4/5/2018
04/05/2017
04/05/2016
04/05/2015
04/05/2014
Active Rigs
57
49
29
94
192
RBN Energy: a most interesting story. Link here. Just a few days a reader and I had a discussion about the rush into the Permian despite the productivity per rig being so much higher in the Bakken. Although that is not the theme of today's RBN Energy blog, it helps explain what I was trying to say.
This is probably the best item of the day, so far. Send a note of thanks to RBN Energy for all their good work.
