The Market And Energy Page, T+37 -- April 5, 2018 -- First Time Unemployment Claims Surge, Up 24,000 Over Previous Week

Jobs, link here, first time unemployment claims --

• prior: 215K
• prior revised: 218K 
• forecast: 230K
• actual: 242K
• looks like Steve Liesman doesn't have to worry about where employers will find new employees after ADP's huge employment numbers yesterday
• no explanation for large pop in unemployment claims 

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Today

Wow, there's so much to report. I can't keep up. I may simply dial it back and slow down.

First, the market. Anyone surprised? I'm not. Some great opportunities in the past ten days for traders and long-term investors alike. We seldom get these opportunities.

Second: Trump. What can I say? Brilliant. Joss just doesn't get it, does he?

Third: the Southern Wall. $25 billion to build? I forget. I think that was the last number I heard. Omnibus bill: peanuts for the Southern Wall. Let's look at the omnibus bill again:

• $1.3 trillion
• $700 billion for the military (Department of Defense)
• $65 billion for Overseas Contingency Operations: Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan
• biggest year-over-year increase in defense funding in 15 years -- a $61 billion increase over FY 2017
• and, yet, US military operations are winding down overseas
• now, the Southern Wall
• stationing the national guard along the frontier
• not the first time this has been done; Bush II did it; but like most things Bush II did, no real commitment, no real strategy, and mostly half-hearted
• estimated cost: $60 million to $120 million / year for military troops along the wall; and pretty good duty -- compared to being sent to Afghanistan
• $25 billion for the physical wall / $100 million (per year for the military) = 250 years
• Planned Parenthood gets $500 million / year
• a lot of Texas ranchers who complained about the border during the Obama years now say they don't want a wall; Californians don't want a wall (except in their state); but Texas ranchers not wanting it -- that settled it for me -- I no longer care about a Southern Wall one way or the other
• I'm excited about the prospects of the national guard becoming the "Southern Wall" -- think of the infrastructure that will be needed
• expect to see "temporary" bases all on the southern border -- I've been part of many, many "temporary" operations and assigned to several "temporary" bases during my 30-year career
• if the "temporary" base was in place longer than a year, it started to look permanent: the PX/BX moved in; Burger King moved in; bowling alleys moved in; Apple Computer kiosks moved in; the USPS and Amazon moved int
• should be fascinating to watch

Fourth:  Colleyville Heritage HS Girls Soccer will play Wichita Falls Rider in the Region 1 Quarterfinals at 6 p.m. TONIGHT at Colleyville Heritage HS. Good luck and go Panthers! The Colleyville Heritage High School is literally in our backyard. Literally. The back fence (yeah, a wall) separates our apartment unit with the soccer field for the Colleyville Heritage High School.


Lookin' Out My Back Door, CCR

Fifth: from a post back in 2016 -- Making America Great Again --

By the way, about four months ago, my wife and I were "lost" out near the Texas Motor Speedway when we happened to notice some brand new BNSF locomotives in what looked like a manufacturing  / industrial park, with a huge "GE" loco on one of the buildings. From The Star-Telegram awhile back:

FORT WORTH -- General Electric’s locomotive plant in far north Fort Worth is putting a strain on the company’s relationship with one of its Pennsylvania-based unions.

The plant, which opened in 2012 near Texas Motor Speedway, employs more than 500 people and builds railroad locomotives and mining equipment. 

The facility, near Texas 114 and Farm Road 156, cranks out an average of 1.2 locomotives per day, a plant manager has said, and those vehicles are bought by customers such as Fort Worth-based BNSF Railway and Union Pacific Railroad, based in Omaha, Nebraska.

But workers at the Fort Worth plant aren’t union members, and that has caused some heartburn among union representatives in GE’s much older locomotive plant in Erie, PA.

And then last month, the new GE CEO John Flannery said he planned to sell or spin-off the Ft Worth GE locomotive plant.

Now, today -- not so fast. Fort Worth Star-Telegram is reporting that the plant John Flannery did not like will build 200 locomotives for a Canadian railroad:

• Canadian National's order is the largest among North America's class 1 railways since 2014
• the Tier 4 and Tier 3 (Tier 4 certified) Evolution Series locomotives are diesel-powered; known for optimal power distribution, train handling, brake control, and fuel efficiency
• the plant is practically brand new -- built in 2013; promised to lure 700 jobs to Texas
• GE also had a 125-year-old locomotive plant in Erie, PA
• GE's locomotive division also builds locomotives for Fort Worth-based BNSF Railway as well as Union Pacific Railroad, CSX and railroads in several foreign countries.
• At its peak, the Fort Worth plant can crank out an average of one locomotive a day.
• Observers say the factory has some of the most modern equipment and efficient manufacturing methods in the world.

And John Flannery was going to sell that asset.

My reply, not ready for prime time, to the reader who sent me the link to this story:

I'm beginning to think John Flannery is as much an idiot as his predecessor, Jeff Immelt: no long-term strategy? 

One month he's selling an incredibly good manufacturing plant with a great workforce and now he's keeping it. 

It's easy for me to say this in hindsight, but it certainly seems that there aren't a whole lot of folks building locomotives these days. There's a pretty wide moat ---