Week 19: May 8, 2016 -- May 14, 2016

The biggest story this past week was the "announcement" that global energy consumption will increase by almost 50% (48% was the actual number) over the next thirty years. That is absolutely phenomenal.

It's hard to read but it appears that energy consumption per the graph below:

• 1980: 300 exajoules/year
• 2010: 550 exajoules/year (550-300)/300 = an 83% increase in energy consumption

Forecast: 550 x 1.48 = 815 exajoules; 815 - 550 = 265 exajoules.

Although the rate of growth over the next thirty years (at 48%) is significantly less than 83% over the past 30 years, the actual increase in exajoules is 265 exajoules/year more than currently used, and 265 exajoules is almost the total amount of energy consumed in 1980.

1980 was not all that long ago.

In other words, by the time your grandchildren are young adults, the world will be consuming as much energy as it is today plus the same amount of total global energy that was consumed in the 1970s.

By the way, a slight digression: when did the slope of the line begin to move practically straight up? Right after 1950, right after WWII. Energy growth was essentially flat from 1820 to 1930.

The numbers were run some years ago, and it was clear there is not enough surface area globally for wind/solar to make much difference, and in the graph above, wind and solar are so minimal they are not even reflected, so let's get the wind / solar discussion out of the way now.

Nuclear is dead for at least another ten years, which means another 20 years before any meaningful change in a nuclear contribution (and even when nuclear was a player, look how slim the "orange" slice is in the graphic below).

So, that gets us back to coal, oil, and natural gas.

For all the natural gas that has been discovered in past couple of years, look how little changed the consumption of natural gas has been for several decades. I think it's amazing how thick the "green seam" -- oil -- is. And it's my understanding that within the next twenty years, maybe ten years, Saudi Arabia becomes a net importer of oil.

The second biggest story was the "announcement" that oil discoveries are at a 60-year low.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it doesn't seem like it takes a rocket scientist to tell us the 2020 - 2030 decade, from an energy standpoint, is going to be a fascinating decade.

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Top Stories This Past Week

 
Trump
Trump to speak at Bismarck oil and gas conference

Director's Cut
March, 2016, data is posted; month-over-month North Dakota crude oil production unchanged

Operations
Data points for North Dakota crude oil production, March, 2016; two tables 
Thirty-nine (39) North Dakota permits renewed
Oasis quarterly presentation
EOG conference call; quarterly presentation
EOG can post "strong returns" with $40 oil

Fracking/EOR
EOG experience

EOR
The Alberta Bakken experience

Miscellaneous
OPEC production increasing; driving season coming up 
Except for three US on-shore plays, oil at $45 not much better than oil at $35
EPA posts new methane emissions rules; minimal effect on the Bakken
Global oil consumption by top 20 consuming nations
Cool human interest story on the Permian
Global energy consumption to grow by almost 50% over next 30 years
Bakken crude oil differentials surge to 3-year highs on Alberta fires
Global oil discoveries drop to 60-year lows
Nigerian oil production plummets 

Saudi Transformation
Two articles in the WSJ
Saudi resurgence 
Saudi's 80-year-old finance minister takes early retirement; keeps head