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Saturday, July 16, 2011

Nice Human Interest Story on Middle-Aged Man Willing To Start New Career in the Oil Patch

This story was also picked up by Rigzone.com if the link below is broken. 

Link here (regional links break early). Data points from The Dickinson Press; read the entire story at the link.

Steve Kass of Hayward, Wis., is one of those relocators.

He moved to Dickinson after work in Wisconsin slowed.

He added a few people in his community were moving to North Dakota because they had heard a lot of places were hiring.

“One thing that really surprised me was how nice everyone in North Dakota is.”He added other things that surprised him were the lack of trees, general landscape and the amount of wind.

“Everyday there is wind,” Kass said laughing.

Two days after the job fair both men were hired.

“I had no experience,” Kass said. “I did not even know what an oil field looked like, but they trained me and things are going well.”Kass said sometimes he feels like a fish out of water yet because of his lack of experience and because most of his coworkers are younger than him.

“My boss is 21, I’m 42,” Kass said. “I never thought I’d have to start over again.”

Kass said what he misses most is his family.

Megaloads Through Idaho Given Permits; Moving Again

Link here (regional links break early).
The first of two oversized loads of Exxon Mobil refinery equipment set to leave the Port of Lewiston over a five-day span has started moving in northern Idaho.

The shipment left at dusk Friday and went through Moscow on its way to connect with Interstate 90 near Coeur d'Alene en route to the oil sands of southern Alberta, Canada.

The Idaho Transportation Department on Wednesday issued permits giving the company five days to ship along U.S. Highway 95. It was thought the load would start moving at 10 p.m., and it's earlier departure Friday surprised some area residents.
And this says it all:
"It was the regular traffic coming through," said Moscow resident David Hall. "It didn't look like a particularly big load at all."
XOM "spent millions of dollars" to make the loads smaller to satisfy all parties; those costs, of course, will be passed on to the consumer. 

Williston Studies Annexaction Possibilities -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here (regional links break early).

Five areas are being considered for annexation:

–North of city limits between U.S. Highway 2 and 85 and 13th Avenue East and 11th Avenue East.

–North of city limits between U.S. Highway 2 and 85 and 25th Avenue West.

–West of city limits and north of Sand Creek .

–West of city limits and south of Sand Creek.

–East of city limits on both sides of East Broadway.

Sitting Bull Statue Unveiled at Williston State College -- Heart of the Bakken, North Dakota, USA

This is REALLY cool! I did not know this was going to happen. What a great surprise.

A life-size statue of Chief Sitting Bull was unveiled at the Williston State College this past week.

Link here (regional links break early).
To commemorate the 130th anniversary of his return from Canada and to honor who he was Williston State College unveiled a statue of Sitting Bull outside its Stevens Hall on Saturday.

On July 19, 1881 Sitting Bull presented himself at Fort Buford after exile in Canada following the Battle at Little Bighorn.
This is the first of three commemorative statues to be unveiled. A second honoring "lewisandclark" will be unveiled next year, and a statue honoring the pioneers of the west will be unveiled two years from now. 

Bakken Pumper Meets the Missouri River -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

This is a dynamic link and will probably be here for only a few days.

But for those who want to see what an oil pumper looks like when it meets the Missouri River, the Rocky Mountain Oil Journal provides a very nice photo.

By the way, this, along with the NDIC, is the best source of information on the Bakken as far as I'm concerned.

Top Ten Producers -- 2014, 2013, 2012, 2012, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007 -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

2014: Top 5 Producers

 Link here. Full list here.  (Lists vary slightly.) Operator, BPD, net acres

1. Whiting: > 128,692; 885,000 net acres
2. Hess: 113,453; 640,000 net acres
3. CLR: 113,420; 1.2 million net acres
4. XTO: 70,535;
5. EOG: 69,352; 110,000 net acres
6. BR (COP): 63,352
7. Statoil: 58,666 bopd; 355,000 net acres
8. MRO: 58,001
9. Oasis: 50,235
10. QEP: 44,506
11. WPX: 34,392
12. Halcon: 32,975
13. Petro-Hunt: 32,018
14. Slawson: 29,684
15. SM Energy: 25,005
16. Newfield: 19,874
17. OXY USA: 19,025
18. Triangle USA Petroleum: 14,295
19. Enerplus: 12,117
20. Zavanna: 11,178
21. Hunt: 10,564
22. Murex: 6,961
23. Samson Resources (KKR): 6,417
24. Fidelity: 6,053
25. Emerald Oil: 5,641
26. Lime Rock Resources: 5,582
27. Abraxas: 4,960
28. American Eagle: 3,820
29. Crescent Point: 3,007
30. Liberty Resources: 2,336
31. Sinclair: 2,272
32. SHD 2,237
33. Petrogulf: 1,803
34. Cornerstone Natural Resources: 1,096
35. Arsenal Energy: 1,033
36. North Plains Energy: 980
37. Denbury Onshore: 901
38. Armstrong Operating: 594
39. Mountain Divide: 542
40. True Oil: 497
41. Thunderbird Resources: 445
42. Bakken Hunter: 256
43: Rim Operating: 110
44. Legacy Reserves: 105
45. Windsor Energy: 103
46. Resource Drilling: 89
47. Gadeco: 75
48. Texakota: 45
49. Condor Petroleum: 33
50. Petro Harvester Operatong: 26

2013: Top 50 Producers

Company / bopd -- estimated net acreage in North Dakota Bakken

1. Hess: 82,108 -- 640,000
2. CLR: 74,332 -- 1.2 million
3. Whiting: 73,132  -- 685,000
4. EOG: 58,842 -- 580,000
5. XTO: 48,141 -- 600,000
6. MRO: 45,156 -- 370,000
7. Statoil: 43,797 -- 258,000 (378,000 in ND and MT)
8. Oasis: 37,981 -- 500,000 (may be slightly more/less; recently sold some non-core acreage)
9. KOG: 37,219 (will be acquired by Whiting by end of 2014) -- 183,0000
10. BR: 35,858 -- 620,000
11. QEP: 31,925 -- maybe 118,000
12. HRC (Halcon): 26,470 -- 131,000
13. WPX: 26,210 -- maybe 85,800
14. Slawson: 23,254 -- at one time reported to be about 100,000
15. SM Energy: 20,688 -- about 159,000
16. OXY USA: 16,864 -- ~ 300,000
17. Petro-Hunt: 16,176
18. Newfield: 14,024 -- hard to say; maybe 60K in ND Bakken; 40K in Elm Coulee (MT)
19. Enerplus: 12,020 -- 215,000 + (ND, MT, and Saskatchewan)
20. Fidelity (MDU): 11,200 -- 124,000 (ND, MT)
21. Hunt: 9,152
22. Murex: 7,298 --
23. Triangle: 7,201 -- 190,450
24. Zavanna: 6,800
25. Samson Resources: 6,503 -- no idea; sold 20,000 acres to Magnum Hunter; sold 120,000 acres to CLR
26. Baytex: 4,973 -- maybe 70,000 (had 126,000 acres prior to selling 50,000 acres to Magnum Hunter)
27. Sequel: 4,840 -- 65,000 (2011, company website)
28. Abraxas: 4,449 -- acreage in ND Bakken hard to determine; 21,000 back in 2011, but sold 13,500 net acres in 2013
29. American Eagle: 2,966 -- 11,000 perhaps
30. Crescent Point Energy: 2,414
31. Sinclair: 1,959
32. Emerald: 1,812 -- maybe around 70,000 net acres after acquiring 20,800 net acres in early 2014
33. Arsenal: 1,073
34. Denbury: 991 -- sold most of their Bakken position to XOM in 2012
35. Cornerstone: 804 -- maybe 89,000 net acres in ND (21,000 net acres in Sheridan County, MT)
36. True Oil: 767
37. Mountain Divide: 698
38. Armstrong Operating: 539
39. GMX Resources: 427 -- maybe 35,000 (2012 corporate presentation)
40. Bakken Hunter: 388 -- a subsidiary of Magnum Hunter; 97,000 (ND)
41. Gadeco: 249
42. Windsor Energy Group: 227
43. Rim Operating:  151
44. Resource Drilling: 147
45. Legacy Reserves Operating: 82
46. North Plains Energy: 81 -- sold to KOG some time ago; kept some wells?
47: SHD Oil & Gas: 75
48. Texakot: 46
49: Resolute Natural Resources: 44
50: Petro Harvester Operating: 19 

********************************

Top ten producers in the Bakken, North Dakota, 2012. See story here.
Barrels of oil per day
List updated from Whiting Corporate Presentation 4Q12 
  • 1. Whiting Oil and Gas Corporation, 66,156
  • 2. Continental Resources, 65,141
  • 3. Hess Corporation, 64,657
  • 4. Brigham Oil & Gas, 50,325
  • 5. EOG, 46,091
  • 6. XTO Energy Inc. 33,148
  • 7. Marathon Oil Company, 31,194
  • 8. Petro-Hunt, L.L.C., 25,743
  • 9. Slawson, 21,058
  • 10. KOG, 20,423
  • 11. Oasis, 20,013
  • 12. Burlington Resources, 19,798
  • 13. QEP, 17,521
  • 14. WPX, 17,043
  • 15. OXY USA, 15,187
  • 16. SM Energy, 12,665
  • 17. Zavanna, 10,991
  • 18. Enerplus, 10,568
  • 19. Hunt, 9,955
  • 20. Newfield, 9,437
Top ten producers in the Bakken, North Dakota, 2011. See story here.
  • 1. CLR: 19.034 million, 543
  • 2. EOG: 16.071 million, 341
  • 3. WLL: 14.701 million, 422
  • 4. HES: 14.145 million, 635
  • 5. BR: 8.715 million, 266
  • 6. MRO: 6.987 million, 228
  • 7. BEXP: 6.598, 114
  • 8. Slawson: 6.255, 124
  • 9. Denbury Onshore: 4.619, 322
  • 10. Petro-Hunt, 4.612, 207 
Top ten producers in the Bakken, North Dakota, 2010. For full list and source, click here.

Producer: barrels of oil in 1000s; barrels of water in 1000s; number of wells; average production/well
  • 1. EOG: 17,132; 4,896; 259; 66,146
  • 2. WLL: 13,706; 10,291; 341; 30,278
  • 3. CLR: 12,148; 11,156; 415; 29,272
  • 4. BR: 9,420; 23,419; 221; 42,624 (see note at bottom of page to help explain production)
  • 5. Hess: 6,970; 16,878; 445; 15,663
  • 6. Marathon: 5,389; 1,586; 175; 30,794
  • 7. Slawson: 4,604; 1,320, 84; 54,810
  • 8. BEXP: 3,317; 2,867; 58; 57,190
  • 9. Encore: 3,274; 21,564; 297; 11,023 (see note at bottom of page to help explain production)
  • 10. XTO: 2,166; 1,632; 152; 14,250
********

Top ten oil producers, 2009, North Dakota (full list here):

Producer: barrels of oil in 1000s; barrels of water in 1000s; number of wells; average production/well
  • 1. EOG: 13,040; 1,398; 152; 85,789
  • 2. BR: 10,674; 21,113; 201; 53,104
  • 3. CLR: 8,185; 7,789; 319; 25,658
  • 4. WLL: 6,761; 8,837; 254; 26,618
  • 5. Hess: 6,606; 18,621; 422; 15,654
  • 6. Marathon: 4,065; 965; 132; 30,795
  • 7. Encore: 3,068; 25,368, 287; 10,690 (see note at bottom of page to explain  this)
  • 8. Slawson: 1,923; 583; 46; 41,804
  • 9. Murex: 1,921; 1,070; 117; 16,419
  • 10. XTO: 1,918; 955; 109; 17,596

Comments/observations/trends:
  • It's all about net acreage in the Bakken. Of the top four producers, both years, BR has the least acreage, and BR dropped from second to fourth place in 2010. I expect the gap to widen in 2011. Interestingly, Hess may have the most acreage in North Dakota (depends on sources for data; Hess has at least 750,000 and may have more than 900,000 acres. If more than 900,000 acres, it is number one in the state. Production/well is a significant problem. I blogged about that from the beginning.) See note at bottom of page for additional information regarding BR.
  • Based on what I'm seeing so far in 2011, it's very possible both CLR and WLL will jump to number 1 and number 2, and it's possible WLL will be number 1. 
  • Encore (now part of Denbury -- DNR): see note in bold red at bottom of this page to explain Encore -- VERY IMPORTANT.
  • Hess, XTO, Murex with poor production well. Murex dropped off the top ten list for 2010.
  • Slawson has improved its production/well.
  • EOG's production/well dropped significantly from 2009 to 2010. If folks remember, the initial EOG wells in the Parshall oil field were stunning (2009); since then, less so. 

Hey, you forgot BEXP in 2009? Where's BEXP (2009)? Did you forget BEXP?  Nope. In 2009, BEXP was number 18. BEXP went from #18 in 2009 to #8 in 2010, probably the biggest jump. Folks used to "laugh" about BEXP's "inflated" IPs, but maybe they were "real."  In 2009:
  • #18. BEXP: 601; 469; 17; 35,352
One can argue BEXP rose to #8 based on huge increase in number of wells (from 17 to 58) but BEXP's production/well also increased significantly.

I did these lists quickly; did not double-check for typographical errors or check for calculation errors. If anyone spots an error, and I'm sure there are some, please let me know.  Comments on trends, observations, explanations, all welcome.

I think going back to 2008 is comparing apples and oranges because so much has changed in the Bakken in the past four years. But for those who are interested, here is the same data (full list here):

Top ten oil producers, 2008, North Dakota (full list here):

Producer: barrels of oil in 1000s; barrels of water in 1000s; number of wells; average production/well
  • 1. BR: 12,106; 17,743; 164; 73,817
  • 2. EOG: 8,613; 970; 66; 130,500 (checked twice)
  • 3. CLR: 6,507; 6,366; 296; 21,983
  • 4. Hess: 5,491; 2,066; 389; 14,116
  • 5. WLL: 3,895; 9,269; 244; 15,963
  • 6. Encore: 3,312; 26,188; 300; 11,040 (see note at bottom of page to explain this)
  • 7. MRO: 2,395; 607, 80; 29,938 (double-checked)
  • 8. St Mary: 1,817; 6,453; 257; 7,070 (wow)
  • 9. Petro-Hunt: 1,558; 4,314; 157; 9,923 (wow)
  • 10. Murex: 1,129; 874; 110; 10,264
And, while we are at it, let's look at data from 2007.

Top ten oil producers, 2007, North Dakota (full list here):

Producer: barrels of oil in 1000s; barrels of water in 1000s (other data not provided by linked source)
  • 1. BR: 12,690; 12,091
  • 2. CLR: 5,147; 4,117
  • 3. Hess: 4,190; 16,696
  • 4. Encore: 2,260; 25,247 (see note at bottom of page to explain this)
  • 5. WLL: 2,299;9,574
  • 6. St Mary: 1,978; 6,718
  • 7. Petro-Hunt: 1,515; 4,217
  • 8. EOG: 1,453; 0.918 (almost no water)
  • 9. Zenergy: 1,179; 4,118
  • 10. BTA: 795; 1,866 

VERY IMPORTANT -- VERY IMPORTANT -- EXPLANATION FOR ENCORE "WATER PRODUCTION"

The majority of Encore's production was from wells drilled during the1970's and 1980's. Encore purchased old wells which were drilled into the Madison or other formations (not the Bakken). 

In addition, many (if not most) of those were being produced with enhanced recovery (EOR). In other words, these were water flooded units using vast volumes of water pushed through the formation to drive the oil out. 

So Encore's (now Denbury's) low oil production and high water production are distorting whatever results they've had over the past few years as they drilled into the Bakken formation.

Burlington Resources, as another longtime ND producer, may have their results also skewed by these same factors. 

The above information/explanation was provided by a reader.  This makes all kind of sense. DNR is perhaps the #1 operator in the oil patch for enhanced oil recovery (water-flooding and CO2 injection). It now makes more sense why DNR was interested in Encore. 


A huge "thank you" to the reader who sent me this information.

Top Ten Oil Producers -- 2009 -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Top ten oil producers, 2009, North Dakota (full list here):

Producer: barrels of oil in 1000s; barrels of water in 1000s; number of wells; average production/well
  • 1. EOG: 13,040; 1,398; 152; 85,789
  • 2. BR: 10,674; 21,113; 201; 53,104
  • 3. CLR: 8,185; 7,789; 319; 25,658
  • 4. WLL: 6,761; 8,837; 254; 26,618
  • 5. Hess: 6,606; 18,621; 422; 15,654
  • 6. Marathon: 4,065; 965; 132; 30,795
  • 7. Encore: 3,068; 25,368, 287; 10,690 (see note at bottom of page to explain  this)
  • 8. Slawson: 1,923; 583; 46; 41,804
  • 9. Murex: 1,921; 1,070; 117; 16,419
  • 10. XTO: 1,918; 955; 109; 17,596
 
VERY IMPORTANT -- VERY IMPORTANT -- EXPLANATION FOR ENCORE "WATER PRODUCTION"

The majority of Encore's production was from wells drilled during the1970's and 1980's. Encore purchased old wells which were drilled into the Madison or other formations (not the Bakken). 

In addition, many (if not most) of those were being produced with enhanced recovery (EOR). In other words, these were water flooded units using vast volumes of water pushed through the formation to drive the oil out. 

So Encore's (now Denbury's) low oil production and high water production are distorting whatever results they've had over the past few years as they drilled into the Bakken formation.

Burlington Resources, as another longtime ND producer, may have their results also skewed by these same factors. 

The above information/explanation was provided by a reader.  This makes all kind of sense. DNR is perhaps the #1 operator in the oil patch for enhanced oil recovery (water-flooding and CO2 injection). It now makes more sense why DNR was interested in Encore. 

A huge "thank you" to the reader who sent me this information.

Top Ten: Producers -- 2010 -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Top ten producers in the Bakken, North Dakota, 2010. For full list and source, click here.

Producer: barrels of oil in 1000s; barrels of water in 1000s; number of wells; average production/well

  • 1. EOG: 17,132; 4,896; 259; 66,146
  • 2. WLL: 13,706; 10,291; 341; 30,278
  • 3. CLR: 12,148; 11,156; 415; 29,272
  • 4. BR: 9,420; 23,419; 221; 42,624 (see note at bottom of page to help explain production)
  • 5. Hess: 6,970; 16,878; 445; 15,663
  • 6. Marathon: 5,389; 1,586; 175; 30,794
  • 7. Slawson: 4,604; 1,320, 84; 54,810
  • 8. BEXP: 3,317; 2,867; 58; 57,190
  • 9. Encore: 3,274; 21,564; 297; 11,023
  • 10. XTO: 2,166; 1,632; 152; 14,250

VERY IMPORTANT -- VERY IMPORTANT -- EXPLANATION FOR ENCORE "WATER PRODUCTION"

The majority of Encore's production was from wells drilled during the1970's and 1980's. Encore purchased old wells which were drilled into the Madison or other formations (not the Bakken). 

In addition, many (if not most) of those were being produced with enhanced recovery (EOR). In other words, these were water flooded units using vast volumes of water pushed through the formation to drive the oil out. 

So Encore's (now Denbury's) low oil production and high water production are distorting whatever results they've had over the past few years as they drilled into the Bakken formation.

Burlington Resources, as another longtime ND producer, may have their results also skewed by these same factors. 

The above information/explanation was provided by a reader.  This makes all kind of sense. DNR is perhaps the #1 operator in the oil patch for enhanced oil recovery (water-flooding and CO2 injection). It now makes more sense why DNR was interested in Encore.

A huge "thank you" to the reader who sent me this information.

Top Ten: Fracking Companies -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

SCROLL DOWN FOR THE LIST

Sources Regarding Fracking

Liberty Oilfield Services wa the top pressure pumper in the Bakken in 2016; Liberty Oilfield Services bought out bankrupt Sanjel; about 20 frack companies in North Dakota right now; only about 8 frack crews working in North Dakota now, October 7, 2016.

Packers Plus Energy Services update on high-intensity wells in the Bakken, May 21, 2016.

Half of all fracking companies could be "dead" or sold by end of 2015, April, 22, 2015.

Coiled tubing fracking: reader's input. New method will probably become the norm, May 9, 2014.

Completion technologies 101: a UND-EERC primer on completion/fracking. A one-page PDF file.

KOG's all-ceramic experience, at SeekingAlpha, September 25, 2013. 

Zipper fracks and other fracking technology information from the trenches, January 3, 2012.

A definitive reply to fracking technologies from the trenches, January 2, 2012.

A nice presentation: challenges with fracking, a PDF file so it might take a moment to load. A great source document; several story lines. Maybe more later. -- December 14, 2012.

Minnesota-Wisconsin Frack Sand Map

Ceramic Proppant for sale; click here.

Ceramic Proppant for sale; click here.

Fracking Chemicals 

Southwest Engineers / EarthWater Resources announce "major" new project, June 19, 2013

"Top Ten" List
National and Regional Companies Providing Hydraulic Fracturing Stimulation Services

1. Schlumberger (Hiway process)
2. Halliburton
3. Sanjel -- bankrupt in 2015 (thereabouts); bought out by Denver-based Liberty Oilfield Services
4. Baker Hughes (subsidiary BJ Services Company) (added after first comment below)
5. Frac Teck (in North Dakota, see comment below, several comments down)
6. CalFrac (complex located west of Williston at Four-Mile Corner; see comment; expanded; 4-spreads)
7. Weatherford (huge presence in Williston; search blog for "Weatherford")
8. Pumpco (see first comment below)
9. Trican: e-mail received November 25, 2012, says it is located in Minot; 

10. Cudd (located west of Williston; acidizing, but not yet fracking is what I've heard)
11. Complete Production Services -- merged with Superior Energy Services, as of February 7, 2012 (subsidiaries in Watford City, Richardton, Williston -- not sure if they do pressure pumping in ND)
12. Key Energy Services (in Williston, Tioga, Dickinson, Sidney; not sure if it fracks); a reader says that Key Energy no longer in North Dakota, November 25, 2012; another reader says the company is still in Williston, Sidney, Dickinson;

13. Patterson-UTI (not in North Dakota at present time)
14. Superior Well Services (service center in Williston; not sure if fracking)
15. Gas Frac Energy Services [GSFVF](frac with propane and nitrogen, not water), a Canadian company; not in ND Bakken?; a reader says that Key Energy no longer in North Dakota, November 25, 2012;

16. C&J Energy Services (website map shows Bakken; links mention Bakken, but website does not say they are in the Bakken).  C&J acquires Casedhole Solutions (effective June 7, 2012)  and Casedhole Solutions is solidly in the Bakken. According to the website, Casedhole Solutions is in the non-frack pressure pumping business (non-frack). [See comment dated: February 26, 2013.]
17. Chesapeake -- see below. FTS -- a 30-percent-owned subsidiary (FTS International -- formerly known as Frac Tech Services -- to go public in 2012.
18. RockPile Energy Services, LLC, created by and majority owned by Triangle Petroleum, a small operator in the Bakken
19. Chesapeake's Performance Technologies, see comments. Not in North Dakota.
20. See comments: Liberty Resources, which also fracs Zavanna's wells.
21. TAM International, announces Bakken regional headquarters to be established in Dickinson, November 27, 2012.
22. Liberty Oilfield Services, bought out bankrupt Sanjel, see October 7, 2016, news above. 

Note: Key Energy Services (KEG): first time I had heard of this company was when Cramer recommended it on CNBC, January 9, 2012. See update and comments regarding KEG at this post. As noted above, I received an e-mail November 25, 2012, suggesting this company is no longer in North Dakota.

Yes, this list has more than 10 names on it, but this way I can track of them. Also, Chesapeake, I believe might do their own fracking -- at least I think I read that with regard to their natural gas wells in the east.

Texas: First State to Require Fracking Disclosure

Link here.

This is old news; I believe Governor Rick Perry of Texas signed the legislation back in June, 2011, but I don't recall posting that.

The law will go into effect July, 2012.
The new law requires companies that use the method, also known as "fracking," to disclose their chemical recipes. 
Note the spelling of "fracking."

IEA Reports On Status of Oil Markets Following Release of SPR -- Rigzone

Link here.

A long article quoting the IEA's rationale for the release and how things stand now, about three weeks later.

If I read the IEA statement correctly, it appears that the IEA is stating strongly that the release was not due to the escalating price of oil, but rather due to refiners demand for more crude oil. In fact, the IEA notes that the price of crude was falling when they made their decision to release oil from the emergency stockpiles.

Having said that, the IEA consistently refers back to the price of oil without one mentioning the amount of crude oil that the refiners actually needed. The IEA provided lots of "dollar numbers" but no "crude oil numbers."

One quote from the long report:
Early-year industry stocks looked comfortable back in March, and there was a presumption then that other OPEC producers would immediately step in to boost supply to replace Libyan outages. In contrast, the absence up until June of major OPEC increases implied a real possibility that commercial stocks could fall to the bottom of their seasonal range, risking a renewed, damaging and sustained surge in international prices in 3Q11. The IEA therefore decided to act to address this supply-side issue, even though prices were then trending lower."
I have long maintained that OPEC does not have the spare capacity required to meet increased demand. I found this quote at the end of the article consistent with that view:
Veteran OPEC-watcher Bhushan Bahree, senior director of global oil for IHS CERA, told Rigzone in a telephone interview: "Oil supplies are ramping up." Bahree added, "There was very little incentive for the other OPEC nations to agree to increase production. They have little or no spare capacity."