Scrapped plans to build a $2.6 billion battery energy storage system factor in Georgia. FRER Battery (NYSE: FREY) rebranded as T1 Energy (NYSE: TE). Pivot: "committed to becoming a vertically integrated US soalr _ battery storage leader from its new corporate headquarters in Austin, TX. " The company expects to begin trading under its new symbols on March 3, 2025.
"Seasonal flu": numbers dropping fast.
********************************* Back to the Bakken
WTI: $70.92. Trump administration hints sanctions on Russia could ease.
New wells:
Sunday, February 23, 2025: 46 for the month, 91 for the quarter, 91 for the year,
Globally, government policies have shifted away from petroleum in recent
years toward lower-carbon alternatives such as renewable fuels and
electric vehicles (EVs), largely driven by worries about climate change.
This has pushed down investment in petroleum refining, and RBN’s
Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice predicts global net refining
capacity will increase by only 2.1 MMb/d, or 422 Mb/d annually, from
2025-29 — the slowest rate in 30 years. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll
discuss the upcoming refinery closures, proposed projects, and the
obstacles new and existing refiners face.
The biggest story of the day: Amazon gains creative control of James Bond franchise from the Broccoli family. More on this later. This is a big story. Link here.
The market was not impressed with Rivian losing only $2 billion / year.
The company forecast deliveries of 46,000 units to 51,000 units for 2025, compared with 51,579 vehicles delivered last year. The benchmark going forward: 50,000.
Market: on a day that the DJI has fallen or is going to fall more than a 100 points, I generally don't check in. Today, was such a day. I saw early on that the DJI was going to fall by a couple hundred of points (Walmart-related, it was said) and for that reason, I did not look at the market all day.
A reader reached out to me at 11:00 a.m. this morning -- or thereabouts -- saying they had an appointment with their Schwab broker later this afternoon-- and wanted my thoughts on selling AAPL today. Their broker wants them to sell some of their AAPL because they are overweight in that stock.
The market was down, and Apple announced a new product yesterday. Generally speaking, Apple analysts are never impressed by new Apple products and following a new product announcement, Apple generally sells off. Coupled with this being a down day for the market, I thought AAPL would not do well at all. [One wonders to what extent a small short squeeze might have influenced AAPL's share price today.]
So, I assumed that's what AAPL would do today. Fall.
I told the reader that I would not be selling but everyone's situation is different. I have a 30-year horizon and will continue to add a few shares of AAPL whenever I can, shares which I will never see -- repeat: shares that I will never see -- and will be passed on to our five grandchildren.
But having provided that advice, I was curious -- I just checked the indices over at CNBC and saw that indeed the DJI had fallen 500 points (Walmart-related, "they" say). The other indices also fell but not by much in the big scheme of things.
My assumption was that AAPL probably gave up a few dollars per share, maybe as much as $3.00 but certainly not as much as $5.00 but nothing regarding AAPL surprises me any more.
I about dropped off my chair to see AAPL solidly in the green today at the close, up about a dollar per share. Completely unexpected. I see that immediately after the market closed, AAPL was down 15 cents, so there's that.
I took a chance. I decided to take a look at my entire Schwab portfolio. Wow, wow, wow -- one of my best days since the beginning of the year. I have no idea why. I won't check anything else.
But at least I feel good for my reader that AAPL held strong today.
With regard to Walmart -- their board was so concerned about the company's future, they announced they will raise the quarterly dividend by 17 percent, from 20 cents to 23.5 cents. At least that's what I thought they said. I could be wrong. Please fact-check everything I write. I often make typographical and/or content errors.
******************************** Back to the Bakken
WTI: $72.57.
Active rigs: 30.
Seven new permits, #41625 - #41631, inclusive:
Operators: BR (5); Hess (2)
Fields: Haystack Butte-Bakken Unit, McKenzie County; Truax (Williams County)
Comments:
Hess has permits for two SC-Mari wells, NWNW 22-153-98;
to be sited 338/355 FNL and 517/519 FWL;
BR has permits for five HBU Badlands wells, SENW 24-148-98,
to be sited 1799/1862 FNL and 2600/2624 FWL and 2626 / 2577 FEL.
Note: the new field -- the Haystack Butte-Bakken Unit. (HBU)
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
38491, 797, Petro-Hunt, State 153-95-17B-16-1H, McKenzie County;
40759, 576, Slawson, Fish Finder 5-21-9H, Mountrail County;
40688, 523, Slawson, Fish Finder 4-21-9H, Mountrail County;
We won't know the "final" average -- but as far as his most important cabinet appointments, all completed within 30 days. Speaks volumes on several layers. Look at Biden's record.
Kash Patel: 51 - 49. Collins and Murkowski vote "no," along with all Democrat senators and two who claim to be independents. Had Mitch McConnell voted "no," JD Vance would have had to come in with another tie-ending vote. Wow, what theatrics.
The above article is very, very long and incredibly detailed. But of all the attributes of this modem is this fact: unlike a chip from other supplier, this chip (model) is optimized for the iPhone in which it is placed. It is not an off-the shelf modem designed by a third party, nor it is a custom-designed modem, designed by a third party that has allegiances to more than one customer. In this case, the Apple C1 modem is designed to be integrated into the final product from day 1.
See disclaimer: I have no interest in the iPhone 16e as an investment story. I am only interested in the iPhone 16e story because I find the story so incredibly compelling. I have every intention of upgrading from my third generation SE but there is no hurry. This new 16e is going to be around for at least two years, probably four, and possibly longer, depending.
Apple, C1: I am really, really jazzed about the new iPhone 16e. I may track the iPhone 16e here. There are several layers of issues here:
the iPhone 16 family
the price of the new iPhone 16e: are you kidding me?
at $25 / month and folks have the audacity to say this is too expensive for perhaps the most important / must-have device Americans use / need 24/7.
the price of a dozen eggs each week
over four years? $12 / month
the capability of the new iPhone 16e
satellite capability -- ya think DOD might want these for their troops? See below.
this means every iPhone going forward has / will have this capability
I will expand on all of this later -- but for me the two biggest things -- the long list of "improvements" that the iPhone 16e has -- it's truly overwhelming ... perhaps the biggest one that caught my eye -- generally when Apple adds more "capacity", the cost goes up significantly -- in this case the cost went up but the capacity was so much greater than anyone imagined.
With iPhones, nearly 100 apps are included, already downloaded, ready-to-go, at no additional cost -- including word documents, spreadsheets, notes, "FindMe," the best browser out there, and so much more. At wiki, the entire list.
And they just work. For some reason, this Apple link does not include the pre-installed brower, Safari. And I was surprised that Firefox is pre-installed. I was unaware of that. Also, "Maps" not listed in some of these links but "Maps" is obviously pre-installed: both Google maps and Safari maps. And, now, of course, the AI app. Will this show up as SiriGPT? Just a very few here:
ChatGPT???
Once folks start using ChatGPT, your life will change forever.
The buzz. It doesn't take a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing.
Must-watch TV tonight: NHL. USA vs Canada. The big question: will there actually be any hockey played? A bigger question: will Trump actually attend? LOL.
NYTimes: as usual, The New York Times completely misreads this. If y'all listened to Trump, you would know what's going on.
WMT: tumbles. How worried is Walmart about this? Not at all. Walmart raises its quarterly dividend from 20 cents / share to 23.5 cents / share. Is a 3.5-cent-jump on 20 cents = a 17.5% jump in its quarterly dividend?
Buffett: cuts holdings in banks. Holds AAPL position. Speaks volumes. Link to TWSJ here.
Medicare vs Medicare Advantage. DOGE. Finally, I get it. No longer worried. No longer concerned. But it explains all the telemarketer calls. Link to Barron's.
Ukraine: British troops on ground? Can't even get there without US air. Link here. The bigger story here? It's a sad day when the Brits / Europeans can't even get their troops to the front line ... on their own continent.
Europe: dire straits. Link here. Things have gotten pretty bad when Americans are starting to "vote" for Putin, and not Zelenskyy. But when Zelenskyy admits he can't account for $6 billion of the money the US sent him .... I think most of us can figure out who has it, even if we don't know where it is ...
Mexico: cars. More than any American even knows. Link here. No wonder Mexico is running scared.
LA ports: surge. But it's not what it seems. Link here. There are so many story lines here. Amazing. American exceptionalism.
Boeing: it's worse than any American even knows. Link here. Trump himself wants "out." Secretary of Defense: wants DOD to cut annual budget by 8% each year for the next five years. I think it's easy to connect those dots.
The buzz -- headline without links. It doesn't take a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing. Links, additional details, and updates are provided here.
Must-watch TV tonight: NHL. USA vs Canada.
WMT: tumbles. How worried is Walmart about this? Not at all. We'll explain.
C1: incredible.
Buffett: cuts holdings in bank. Holds AAPL position.
Medicare vs Medicare Advantage. DOGE.
DOA: EPA, California waiver.
Ukraine: British troops on ground? Can't even get there without US air.
Europe: dire straits.
Mexico: cars. More than any American even knows.
LA ports: surge. But it's not what it seems.
Boeing: it's worse than any American even knows.
Politics:
***************************** Back to the Bakken
WTI: $72.52.
New wells:
Friday, February 21, 2025: 39 for the month, 84 for the quarter, 84 for the year,
40437, conf, Enerplus, Icon 150-94-06B-18H,
39941, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2032-5BH,
38671, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-3A-33 1H,
Thursday, February 20 2025: 36 for the month, 81 for the quarter, 81 for the year,
The decision by the U.S.’s largest independent propane wholesaler to
exit the business serves as a reminder of the challenges and risks that
companies like it face. The move also highlights the fact that some
other independent wholesalers believe that by increasing their scale and
scope they can compete more effectively with their two classes of
competitors: affiliates of big midstream companies and affiliates of
propane retailers. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss what the latest
M&A activity in the propane space reveals.
************************************ Encore
Reminder: this RBN story is now fully available --
We defy you to name an oil and gas producer that’s been on the buying
side of more $1-billion-plus M&A than Permian pure play Diamondback
Energy, which announced February 18, 2025, that it had agreed to purchase a
chunk of Midland Basin assets from Double Eagle IV, one of the Permian’s
largest privately held producers, for just under $4.1 billion.
You’d be
equally hard-pressed to find a team that’s assembled and flipped more
Permian acreage and production than the folks at Double Eagle. In
today’s RBN blog, we discuss the newly announced Diamondback/Double
Eagle IV deal and what it gives Diamondback, the fourth-largest producer
in the Permian after ExxonMobil, Chevron and Occidental Petroleum.
Travis
Stice, who has served as the company’s CEO for the past 13 years and
chairman for the past three, has said that “M&A is as fundamental to
Diamondback Energy as the air we breathe.”
No argument there, as
evidenced by the E&P’s seemingly insatiable appetite for top-tier
Permian acreage and oil-focused production. Midland-based Diamondback
started a long string of multibillion-dollar deals in 2017 when it
bought assets from Brigham Resources for $2.55 billion. The E&P
followed that up in 2018 with agreements to acquire Ajax Resources for
$1.25 billion and Energen for a whopping $9.2 billion, thereby
increasing Diamondback’s Permian production by 75% and more than
doubling its proved reserves. In the months after COVID hit in early
2020, the company bought QEP Resources and Guidon Energy for a total of
$3 billion, and in 2022 it shelled out $1.6 billion for FireBird Energy
and $1.5 billion for Lario Petroleum.
You’d think that after seven deals totaling more than $19 billion
that Diamondback might have finally had its fill. After all, over just a
few years it had rocketed to #5 on the list of publicly held Permian
producers — and one of the biggest E&Ps in the U.S. for that matter.
What is Apple thinking: they introduce a chip that took years to develop and cost billions and eliminated Qualcomm as a third party supplier and put it in their least expensive phone. What were they thinking? LOL. And, oh, by the way, it has satellite connectivity. Who wouldn't want it?
$25 / month = one visit to Starbucks each week. Or a single entre / drink at any upscale family restaurant. I honestly don't get it -- that folks don't understand this -- telecom service would be about the same. Perfect starter phone for any high school student and, perhaps, an older middle schooler.
One can pay for it over two years, but if it last three years: $17 / month. My hunch: this will be heavily subsidized by the carrier.
Satellite connectivity? Yes.
Longevity: one gets the feeling this model was made and is being marketed to last at least the next five years, or the next six years, which would mean three two-year cycles.
Camera: holy mackerel -- current (third generation) SE has a 12MP camera. The new iPhone 16e's camera is a 48MP! Truly amazing. Front-facing camera jumps from 7MP to 12MP and matches the front-facing camera of all the other "16" iPhones, including the top of the line, iPhone 16 Pro.
For investors, one would assume the costs associated with the C1 chip have pretty much been sunk costs. See Qualcomm.
Where is the Apple C1 chip manufactured: in Arizona, need be, to get around tariff issues -- that's why Tim Cook went to Washington, DC, to talk to Trump.
This is revolutionary:
To the best of my recollection the C1 was not mentioned over at MacRumors. Today was the first time most of us have been introduced to the C1. There is nothing yet over at "wiki" with regard to the C1 except stating that it is the first such chip / modem for Apple. See Apple Silicon. I would say that's revolutionary -- and Apple kept it a big secret.
MacRumors, link here. There must be no less than a dozen separate MacRumors stories regarding this new phone -- ten stories means this is "revolutionary," not evolutionary!
Apple’s first in-house iPhone modem is the C1
The iPhone 16E will be the C1’s proving ground.
Apple has just introduced
the iPhone 16E, a spiritual successor to the iPhone SE line that has a
significant first: it introduces Apple’s long-awaited in-house 5G modem
called the C1.
The chip, which Apple says is the most power-efficient
modem in a phone, is Apple’s bid to end its reliance on Qualcomm’s 5G
chips.
Apple says the chip contributes to the 16E’s longer battery life.
The
company says the phone’s internal design is optimized to support a
larger battery, giving it up to 26 hours of video playback. According to
Apple’s technical specifications for the iPhone 16E, its new chip
covers much of the same low-end 5G spectrum as the iPhone 16 but lacks
mmWave — that’s the 5G with gigabit-territory throughput.
The C1 starting in the 16E makes sense: the $599 device is now the
cheapest way to get one of Apple’s thin-bezel phones with Apple
Intelligence. If this inaugural outing for the chip doesn’t end up being
great, people may chalk it up to this being a more affordable phone.
Apple announced the iPhone 16e on Wednesday, an update to a budget-friendly
version of its flagship device.
The most significant change to the phone
will be invisible to users.
Inside the phone is Apple’s first in-house cellular chip—a critical
component for smartphones that enables cellular connections.
The chip,
which Apple dubbed the C1, is a long-awaited next step in Apple’s
efforts to make more of its own technology, and especially to wean
itself from having to pay billions annually to cellular-chip-maker and
rival Qualcomm QCOM.
The new iPhone 16e will be available at the end of this month, selling
for $599. The 16e is priced at a level consistent with previous
generations of Apple’s lowest-priced iPhone, the SE, which was released
in 2022 with a starting price of $429.
The phase-out of that SE model will bring an end to the home button,
which would grant access to the device using a fingerprint reader. The
16e will use Face ID instead.
********************************* A Musical Interlude
"Many refer to 1971 as the most pivotal and exciting of the Rock Era, and I wholeheartedly agree with [the top three below .. which was easy]. So, I'm doing the impossible ... I'm counting down the Top 10 songs from this emblematic year."
