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Friday, June 7, 2024

Streaming Wars Update -- June 7, 2024

Locator: 48085STREAMINGWARS.

Updates

June 8, 2024
: they must be reading the blog. I posted the original note below last night as my last blog of the day. I woke up to this story as the first link in one of my news feeds: the chart of the day, link here.
Wow, that Hulu spread is ... not nice. But I guess that's the norm. 


Original Post
 
Movie night.

We have two OTT streaming platforms: one we pay for -- Hulu; the other is "free" with our Amazon Prime subscription, Amazon Prime Video.

This past week -- in fact, during the last forty-eight hours -- it seems YouTube is absolutely awesome, much better than I remember. Not the "platform," YouTube TV but just plain old YouTube. Somehow I completely missed it but all of a sudden, it seems, YouTube is really, really good. 

So, I was curious. Which are the best OTT streaming platforms now? 

I track "Streaming Wars" here with a pretty exhaustive update here

But now, I was curious -- how do the various platforms rank in 2024?

First a screenshot and then a link.

The screenshot:


Now, the link. The top ten:
  • Netflix
  • Disney+
  • Hulu
  • ESPN+
  • Prime Video
  • HBO Max
  • YouTube TV
  • Starz
  • Sling TV
  • Peacock
Since they are so closely aligned, I always think of Disney+ and Hulu as one and the same, though they are not.

Week 22: May 27, 2024 -- June 2, 2024

Locator: 48084TOPSTORIES. 

Top story

Top international non-energy story:
  • Israel continues offensive into Rafah 
Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:
  • SpaceX - Boeing Starliner launch and docking successful
  • Biden visits Normandy on 80th anniversary of D-Day
  • Trump talks of retribution
  • US added 272K jobs; completely blew away estimates
    • average estimate: 190K
    • high estimate: 252K
Top national energy story:
  • WTI continues to struggle; range-bound below $76.
Focus on fracking

Top North Dakota non-energy story

Top North Dakota energy story

Geoff Simon's quick connectslink here

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Market 

Market at the close, end of the week, June 7, 2024:



Why The US Has Not Experienced A Recession In The Past Two Years -- June 7, 2024

Locator: 48083ECON.

Long, long article: why the recession still isn't here.

Actually, the headline is wrong. The correct headline: why the US did not experience a recession in the last two years despite all the predictions to the contrary.

The lede to a very, very long article:
The recession, predicted by business executives, economists, and investors, refuses to show up.

Steady hiring continues to fuel consumer spending and, in turn, an economic expansion unlike any the U.S. has seen. Employers added 2.75 million jobs over the last 12 months, including 272,000 in May, the Labor Department said Friday.

The unemployment rate has been at or below 4% for 30 months, something that last occurred during the Vietnam War in the late 1960s and the Korean War in the early 1950s. [And there's no evidence that low unemployment, increased wages, fiscal policy, or government debt has had anything to do with current inflation. Inflation was all do to supply chain issues, most secondary to the Covid pandemic.]

Of course, just because everyone who predicted a recession has been wrong doesn’t mean they won’t eventually be right. Though the unemployment rate remains low, it’s risen from its postpandemic extremes: The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.0% last month from 3.9% in April. It was as low as 3.4% in April 2023.

Already, the rate at which companies hire workers has fallen to levels last seen seven years ago. Job vacancies, which soared during the pandemic, have returned to prepandemic levels; if they fall much lower, a higher unemployment rate beckons.

So far, labor market imbalances have resolved themselves without a recession.

If the economy is a mountain climber on a ridge, “there are times when that ridge is extremely broad and even a major event isn’t going to knock the economy off the ridge,” said Glenn Kelman, chief executive of real-estate brokerage Redfin.

Now, “it feels like the ridge has gotten much narrower,” he said.

Two years ago, the Federal Reserve jacked up interest rates at the fastest pace in decades to combat inflation that it initially misdiagnosed as likely to be short-lived. Companies were scrambling for workers, offering large raises and bonuses, and prices were soaring. Investors, economists and some Fed officials thought higher unemployment would probably be needed to bring supply and demand back into balance.

Businesses aren’t shedding workers, though pressures to do so will mount if a longer period of higher rates erodes margins and profits slump.

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Movie Night

The Strange Love of Martha Ivers

Link here

Casablanca, 1942.

Gilda, 1946.

The Strange Love of Martha Ivers, 1946.

Four New Permits; Fourteen Permits Renewed; Four Permits Canceled; WTI Drops Back Below $76 -- June 7, 2024

Locator: 48082B.

WTI: $75.53.

Active rigs: 36.

Four new permits, #40816 - #40819, inclusive:

  • Operator: Spotted Hawk Development, LLC
  • Field: Deep Water Creek Bay (McLean)
  • Comments: 
    • Spotted Hawk has permits for four Moose wells, SENW / NESW 6-150-90, 
      • to be sited between 2593 FNL and 2619 FSL, and between 1595 FWL and 1525 FWL;

Fourteen permits renewed:

  • Formenter Operations (4): four LIG2 permits, Lignite, Burke County;
  • BR (4): four Manchester permits, Little Knife oil field, Dunn County;
  • Crescent Point Energy (4): three CPEUSC Chase Douglas permits and one CPEUSC Holmes permit, Winner oil field, Williams County;
  • SOGC (Sinclair): a Porcupine permit, Little Knife, Dunn County;
  • Enerplus: a London permit, Moccasin Creek, Dunn County;

Four permits canceled:

  • BR: four West Kellogg permits in Elidah oil field, McKenzie County;

Inflation Watch -- Laundry Detergent -- June 7, 2024

Locator: 48081INFLATIONWATCH.

But first, GameStop. Keith Gill. All talk, all hat. No steers.

GameStop (GME) down 40% today. LOL. CNBC is spending way too much time on this meme stock. If this is what millennials and Gen Zers are buying and selling, good for them. Not for me. 

AAPL: up $2.41 today. Who wudda guessed? But Tim better "perform" well Monday.

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Inflation Watch

On sale this week at Walgreens.

Folks know my fascination with laundry detergent pricing.

Each of these are regularly $3.99. This week, each is $1.99.

23 loadings.

My bar: 14 cents / loading.

$1.99 / 23 loadings = 8.65 cents / load.

What's in your laundry room?

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Painting

We've spent a lot of time in New England.

I can say there is nothing in New England that is better than this photo for painting.

This is simply awesome. Grapevine Lake, DFW area, north Texas, June, 2024.

Soft Landing At Risk? Perhaps Not -- June 7, 2024

Locator: 48081ECON.

Soft landing at risk. Tracked here

For a week or so, in May, 2024, there was a concern that a "soft landing" was at risk.

After today's job numbers, that certainly doesn't look like the case. JPow can take a sign of relief. After the initial shock, "the market" agreed. This is a great economy and if one has a choice between a meaningless Fed cut and a booming economy, investors are going to take a booming economy any day of the week. 

Posted earlier:

Friday morningthese are the numbers we're expecting:

  • 190,000
  • 0.3% m/m
  • 3.9% y/y
  • 3.9%
  • that's all you need to know
The actual numbers:
  • 272,000 (much stronger than expected)
  • 0.4% m/m (juiciest increase since beginning of the year)
  • 4.1% (stronger than expected)
  • 4.0% 
Markets: all turn negative -- futures -- 
  • Dow:  -143
  • S& P 500: -14
  • NASDAQ: - 28
Treasuries turn up

Probability of a rate cut: gets less and less and less.

CNBC panelists now trying to spin this story -- how did payrolls jump so much more than expected?
  • that 4% unemployment --  up from 3.9% reported last month
    • "everybody" knows that unemployment isn't actually rising -- Joe Kernen
  • remember: stagflation requires increasing unemployment and a slowing economy
  • investors will take off their "party hats" today
  • already looking forward to inflation data next week

Grapevine Lake -- June, 2024

Locator: 48080TEXASFLOOD.

Link here.

Apple And Rivian Rumors -- June 7, 2024

Locator: 48079AAPL.

Out on a limb: all those rumors about a partnership between Rivian and Apple? I think that where there's smoke, there's fire. 

Of all the non-EV companies out there, my hunch is Apple knows more about EVs than anyone else, and definitely knows as much about battery technology as anyone else. 

And no one knows more about marketing than Apple.

And that's the trifecta: software, battery technology, and marketing. 

And hype. 

All four are Apple's strengths. LOL. 

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Photo By Sophia

Folks Who See This Simply As A Rivian Story Are Missing The Much Bigger Story -- June 7, 2024

Locator: 48078B.

Tag: Rivian, EVs, Nvidia, NVDA, TSMC, TSM, chips.

Link here.

And even more:

Link here.

And some folks think Nvidia is a one-trick pony with a disappointing future.

Back To The Bakken -- WTI Back Up Above $76 -- June 7, 2024

Locator: 48077B.

Were you one of them?
If not, most likely your second million was added to your portfolio. Link here. That intergenerational wealth transfer is going to be incredible. But look at that. Not just a dozen or a hundred or a thousand, but 600,000!


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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $76.06.

Sunday, June 9, 2024: 59 for the month; 123 for the quarter, 322 for the year
39676, conf, Petro-Hunt, Burian 144-98-14B-23-2H,

Saturday, June 8, 2024: 58 for the month; 122 for the quarter, 321 for the year
38055, conf, Oasis, Wood Federal 5498 12-25 2BX,

Friday, June 7, 2024: 57 for the month; 121 for the quarter, 320 for the year
39388, conf, BR, Watchman Peak 1-18-11 MBH,
38056, conf, Oasis, Wood 5498 12-25 3B, 

RBN Energy: understanding the lingo is key to mastering the natural gas value chain.

To closely analyze the natural gas market is to be constantly bombarded with vast amounts of information — weather forecasts, pipeline flows, LNG feedgas, power demand and storage — that is frequently updated, impacting both spot and future prices. But before you can get into the deeper analysis, you’ve got to understand the natural gas value chain and its terminology. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll explain the various terms used to describe natural gas as it moves from wellhead to consumer. 

Friday Morning -- Jobless Numbers -- Higher For Longer -- Great News For Those In The MMFs -- Goldilocks Economy Continues -- National Donut Day -- June 7, 2024

Locator: 48076B.

Updates

June 8, 2024: even Fox was blown away by the numbers, noting that 272,000 new jobs blew past even the highest estimates (258K). Over on social media (the comments), it sounds like a lot of folks have no clue.

Later, 2:03 p.m. CDT: from CNBC: wall of money could flow into the market in July, 2024, beginning of the 2nd half and beginning of the third quarter. LOL. 

Money on the sideline, $6 trillion in MMFs earning 5%, and analysts think folks will start moving this 5%-money into the 15%-S&P market. LOL. Anecdotally, my wife is absolutely terrified of the market and will never move "her cash" from MMFs into the stock market. Even when the MMFs were paying 0.01% she kept "her cash" in MMFs. This is the kind of money on the sideline that isn't going to be moved into the equity market. I'm even hearing from many money managers on CNBC who seem to be terrified of the market and won't move cash into the market. So you have that.

Later, 2:02 p.m. CDT, from The WSJ:

Later, 10:26 a.m. CDT: massive beat! Amazing how the best and the brightest continue to underestimate the strength of the US economy. Absolutely amazing.

Are they really this "dumb" -- and remember, they have all the data that "we" don't have -- or are they playing us for fools?

Not the "talking heads." They're just parroting what the economists and bankers are telling them. But even Steve Liesman got it way wrong: telling us to expect 190,000 new non-farm payroll jobs when the number came in trending toward 300,000. OMG!

Later, 9:55 a.m. CDT: when the Fed sees the market surge after disappointing jobless numbers this morning, numbers that suggest the Fed won't cut any time soon, this confirms my feelings that there's no way the Fed will risk cutting rates which would propel the market even higher, even faster. MMFs will maintain, and my wife will be thrilled, frivously spending her monthly gains from her MMF every month. 

Later, 9:46 a.m. CDT: Goldilocks, you say? 

Folks have already written me laughing at my "Goldilocks" economy. My reply: the Dow is up over 200 points; the S&P is up 15 points, and the NASDAQ is now joining that party -- has just turned green. AAPL? Up $1.35 and market cap back over $3.0 trillion. Yeah, it's a Goldilocks economy. [Having said that, I expect AAPL to sell off after the WWDC keynote speech.]

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Disclaimer Briefly Reminder
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

Original Post

Friday morningthese are the numbers we're expecting:

  • 190,000
  • 0.3% m/m
  • 3.9% y/y
  • 3.9%
  • that's all you need to know
The actual numbers:
  • 272,000 (much stronger than expected)
  • 0.4% m/m (juiciest increase since beginning of the year)
  • 4.1% (stronger than expected)
  • 4.0% 
Markets: all turn negative -- futures -- 
  • Dow:  -143
  • S& P 500: -14
  • NASDAQ: - 28
Treasuries turn up

Probability of a rate cut: gets less and less and less.

CNBC panelists now trying to spin this story -- how did payrolls jump so much more than expected?
  • that 4% unemployment --  up from 3.9% reported last month
    • "everybody" knows that unemployment isn't actually rising -- Joe Kernen
  • remember: stagflation requires increasing unemployment and a slowing economy
  • investors will take off their "party hats" today
  • already looking forward to inflation data next week
BLS: link here. "Everyone" prefers U-3. The one on which I focus? U-1.


There are several stories not being reported.

The biggest story: immigration.
  • "millions" of immigrants taking jobs, and yet businesses continue to add jobs way more than really smart economists estimated
  • what would "we" be doing if it weren't for all these immigrants
As I've said many times, I would rather have a booming economy than a depression. But, again, that's just me. 

Cramer:
  • service jobs and government jobs growing, but especially service jobs
  • hospitality jobs; traveling is the big problem? All these rich retirees spending money on traveling?
  • think of the health industry: all that elective surgery withheld during the Covid lock down -- now catching up
  • Cramer and Carl Q have it figured out
  • health care added 68,000 jobs. 
  • David Faber acts confused -- says he doesn't know "where the economy is"