Soft Landing At Risk? Perhaps Not -- June 7, 2024

Locator: 48081ECON.

Soft landing at risk. Tracked here. 

For a week or so, in May, 2024, there was a concern that a "soft landing" was at risk.

After today's job numbers, that certainly doesn't look like the case. JPow can take a sign of relief. After the initial shock, "the market" agreed. This is a great economy and if one has a choice between a meaningless Fed cut and a booming economy, investors are going to take a booming economy any day of the week. 

Posted earlier:

Friday morning: these are the numbers we're expecting:

• 190,000
• 0.3% m/m
• 3.9% y/y
• 3.9%
• that's all you need to know

The actual numbers:

• 272,000 (much stronger than expected)
• 0.4% m/m (juiciest increase since beginning of the year)
• 4.1% (stronger than expected)
• 4.0% 

Markets: all turn negative -- futures -- 

• Dow:  -143
• S& P 500: -14
• NASDAQ: - 28

Treasuries turn up. 

Probability of a rate cut: gets less and less and less.

CNBC panelists now trying to spin this story -- how did payrolls jump so much more than expected?

• that 4% unemployment --  up from 3.9% reported last month
• "everybody" knows that unemployment isn't actually rising -- Joe Kernen
• remember: stagflation requires increasing unemployment and a slowing economy
• investors will take off their "party hats" today
• already looking forward to inflation data next week