Pages

Friday, June 7, 2024

Soft Landing At Risk? Perhaps Not -- June 7, 2024

Locator: 48081ECON.

Soft landing at risk. Tracked here

For a week or so, in May, 2024, there was a concern that a "soft landing" was at risk.

After today's job numbers, that certainly doesn't look like the case. JPow can take a sign of relief. After the initial shock, "the market" agreed. This is a great economy and if one has a choice between a meaningless Fed cut and a booming economy, investors are going to take a booming economy any day of the week. 

Posted earlier:

Friday morningthese are the numbers we're expecting:

  • 190,000
  • 0.3% m/m
  • 3.9% y/y
  • 3.9%
  • that's all you need to know
The actual numbers:
  • 272,000 (much stronger than expected)
  • 0.4% m/m (juiciest increase since beginning of the year)
  • 4.1% (stronger than expected)
  • 4.0% 
Markets: all turn negative -- futures -- 
  • Dow:  -143
  • S& P 500: -14
  • NASDAQ: - 28
Treasuries turn up

Probability of a rate cut: gets less and less and less.

CNBC panelists now trying to spin this story -- how did payrolls jump so much more than expected?
  • that 4% unemployment --  up from 3.9% reported last month
    • "everybody" knows that unemployment isn't actually rising -- Joe Kernen
  • remember: stagflation requires increasing unemployment and a slowing economy
  • investors will take off their "party hats" today
  • already looking forward to inflation data next week

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.